2022 NBA Draft Big Board: Purdue's Jaden Ivey jumps Duke's Paolo Banchero for No. 1 in prospect rankings

Thu, Jan 20, 2022
NCAAB News (AP)

2022 NBA Draft Big Board: Purdue's Jaden Ivey jumps Duke's Paolo Banchero for No. 1 in prospect rankings

It has been more than two months since the college basketball season got underway so it's time to expand the AP Sports 2022 NBA Draft prospect rankings. Given the amount of games prospects have already put on tape this season, today is the day we identify the top 50 prospects to this point,

My Big Board 2.0 is an expansion from the preseason top-30 to a brand-new top-50 and it's replete with some big changes, including at the top where Duke's Paolo Banchero has - for now - been supplanted by a second-year star I've long been a fan of. I've also made some substantial movement elsewhere, with several preseason top-10 talents slipping well outside the lottery and other players that weren't on our top-30 jumping into the lottery conversation.

As always, the order's likely to change as the draft process unfolds and evaluations on the Big Board are those of yours truly and not reflective of the industry or other talent evaluators. They're how I see things and the order in which, in a vacuum, I'd rank the class now. I try to be as nimble as possible throughout this process to account for the development of players and how they project, hence some big risers and fallers, but keep in mind here that these movements are the culmination of more than two months of developments. A lot has changed since then, and a lot will (probably) change between now and draft day this summer.

I know what you're thinking: Shut up, stop prefacing and show me the rankings! So enough teasing.

NBA Draft Big Board Top 10

RNKPlayerSchoolClassPOSHT
1 Jaden Ivey PurdueSophSG6-4
2 Paolo Banchero DukeFrPF6-10
3 Chet Holmgren GonzagaFrC7-0
4 Jabari Smith AuburnFrPF6-10
5 Jalen Duren MemphisFrC6-11
6 TyTy Washington Jr. KentuckyFrPG6-3
7 Johnny Davis WisconsinSophSF6-5
8 Ochai Agbaji KansasSrG6-5
9 Bennedict Mathurin ArizonaFrSG6-6
10Dyson DanielsG League Ignite-SG6-6

Check out the entireTop 50 NBA Draft Big Board

Now let's jump into the major risers and fallers from our last NBA Draft prospect rankings.

Notable risers

  • Current ranking: No. 1 | Previous ranking: No. 5

I was already high on Ivey entering the season - he was No. 5 on the Big Board and someone I thought would be a top-three player in college hoops this season - but moving him to No. 1 is, I'll admit, not in line with consensus. I care not.

The shot was mildly concerning as a freshman after making 25.8% from 3-point rage but it's something I believed would rebound (and it has). He's hitting 43% from distance. The assist numbers have increased along with his role, and I've been encouraged by his decision-making in flashes. And, overall - not that it's the deciding factor - but I firmly believe he has the pizazz of a top pick. His play has shades of Marcus Smart and Ja Morant and he's a player who affects the game in different ways. Ultimately at No. 1 I want to take a swing on someone with huge upside and Ivey's long-term potential as a lead guard given his explosiveness, developing vision and reliable jump shot is the package I'd pick to gamble on at No. 1.

  • Current ranking: No. 6 | Previous ranking: No. 13

We're seeing Washington in real-time blossom from a really good, borderline lottery talent to someone I'd bet winds up inside the top-10 by draft night. The reasons are two-fold. First, he's already carved out a strong role for himself as a freshman on a veteran-laden Kentucky team because of his shooting ability. He's hitting his mid-range jumpers and shooting 40.4% on 3-pointers. He recently had his best scoring display of the season, too, where he turned in a career-high 28 points on 13 shots and added five assists vs. Tennessee.

The second major reason I'm projecting him high here is because of his untapped potential as a distributor and creator. He's not been asked to run point full time for UK - Sahvir Wheeler is in that role - but he has a strong 23.7% assist rate and has in flashes shown himself plenty capable of being a high-level distributor. With Wheeler out against Georgia earlier this month, for instance, Washington turned in 17 points and 17 assists (to two turnovers) in a win, breaking the Wildcats' assist record of 16 held by John Wall. Three-level scorers like Washington are highly coveted in the NBA as it is but he's kicking the tag of a combo guard and showing himself worthy of consideration as a true lead guard who can score it, too.

  • Current ranking: No. 8 | Previous ranking: NR

Not included in my preseason top-30 was Kansas' Agbaji, who this season has emerged as one of the best players in college basketball and someone worthy of lottery looks. He's made significant strides as a shooter in his four seasons at KU and was a borderline first-round prospect entering the year, but this season it's been laughably good as he's made nearly 50% of his 3-pointers while averaging a career-high 19.9 points per game. Simply put, what he's doing this season is too good to ignore. He'll be 22 years old by the draft and I'd wager teams will let him slip outside the lottery. But it's probably going to be a mistake. He's this year's Desmond Bane: an experienced college player who will inevitably get overlooked but has the sharpshooting ability and savvy to be a difference-maker for an NBA team.

Notable fallers

  • Current ranking: No. 33 | Previous ranking: No. 8

Having just turned 19 years old and playing on an experienced UCLA team, I'm not by any stretch giving up on former five-star recruit Peyton Watson. I'm just less convinced now than I was a few months ago that he's a lottery talent - at least this year. He's made three 3-pointers on 17 attempts this season, shooting 31.3% from the field and has really struggled to make an impact on the offensive side of the ball. Wouldn't surprise me if another season of college is in the cards for him as he continues to develop. Still a ton of upside with him if it comes together but this season he's not played up to preseason lottery projections.

  • Current ranking: No. 18 | Previous ranking: No. 3

Hardy opened the season as the potential No. 1 overall pick but he's not even the No. 1 prospect on G League Ignite's team in my latest update. That's in part a testament to the meteoric rise of teammate Dyson Daniels, the 6-foot-6 wing out of Australia who checks in at No. 10 in the latest rankings, but also in part because Hardy has not been particularly impressive.

Among the G League Ignite's top prospects he ranks No. 1 in scoring ahead of Daniels and MarJon Beauchamp but last in field goal percentage (35.1%). And his 26.9% hit rate from 3-point range doesn't dispel efficiency concerns, either. The combination of his scoring and creating ability was what made him so interesting as a prospect but neither facet of his game look as polished in the G League than I projected. Adjusting expectations accordingly with the potential that he could rise into the top 10 but hasn't quite done enough this season to have him in that range right now.

  • Current ranking: No. 23 | Previous ranking: No. 12

There's not a ton of separation on my board between players just outside the lottery (No. 15) and the mid-to-late first-round - like, say, 24 - so the 11-slot drop isn't a major indictment. I remain very bullish overall on Chandler's prospects. I'm just less sure at this stage that he's a starting NBA lead guard than I was in the preseason. The speed and change of direction keep him comfortably inside my top-30, though his efficiency as the top dog for Tennessee remains a little to be desired. (He's hitting 45.2% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range and has a 1.6 assist/turnover ratio that offsets some of the excitement that comes with his plus-30% assist rate.)

Check out theTop 50 NBA Draft Big Board

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