2022 SEC win totals, odds, picks: Predictions for each team as Georgia and Alabama face lofty expectations

Tue, Jun 21, 2022
NCAAF News (AP)

2022 SEC win totals, odds, picks: Predictions for each team as Georgia and Alabama face lofty expectations

The 2022 college football season is right around the corner, and there are investments that can be made right now that can pay off in a big way after the end of the regular season. Caesars Sportsbook has released over/under win totals for every SEC team, which has set the tone for "talkin' season" and game-by-game predictions.'

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To the surprise of nobody, Georgia and Alabama have lofty expectations after the Bulldogs topped the Crimson Tide in January in the College Football Playoff National Championship. They are the only two teams in the SEC that are expected to top the double-digit win mark according to oddsmakers.'

Where does every team in the conference stand? Here are the regular season win totals and our summer picks that are subject to change between now and the start of the season.

Alabama

Over/under 11 wins

  • Wins: Utah State, at Texas, UL-Monroe, Vanderbilt, at Arkansas, Texas A&M, at Tennessee, Mississippi State, at LSU, at Ole Miss, Austin Peay, Auburn
  • Losses: None

Analysis: The Crimson Tide revenge tour will roll into Atlanta in December with an unblemished record and a CFP appearance there for the taking. The game at Texas in Week 2 won't be the challenge that some think, and the home game vs. Texas A&M and coach Jimbo Fisher won't be a nail-biter as was the case last year. Alabama has the two best players in college football (quarterback Bryce Young and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr.), and a schedule that sets up well for a title run. Pick: Over 11 (-140)

Arkansas

Over/under 7 wins

  • Wins: Cincinnati, South Carolina, Missouri State, vs. Texas A&M, Liberty, LSU, Ole Miss, at Missouri
  • Losses: Alabama, at Mississippi State, at BYU, at Auburn

Analysis: Coach Sam Pittman will enter his third season in Fayetteville, Arkansas, with plenty of hype after a successful 2021 season that saw the Razorbacks go 9-4. They'll start out strong with four straight wins, but a home game vs. Alabama followed by three straight road games in the middle of the season will slow down the hype train a bit. However, a strong November will send the Hogs into bowl season on a high note. Pick: Over 7 (-125)

Auburn

Over/under 6 wins

  • Wins: Mercer, San Jose State, Penn State, Missouri, LSU, Arkansas, Western Kentucky
  • Losses: at Georgia, at Ole Miss, at Mississippi State, Texas A&M, at Alabama

Analysis: It was a tumultuous offseason on The Plains after a coup attempt nearly cost coach Bryan Harsin his job after just one season. He'll still roam the sidelines this fall, but he needs to have a strong season in order to avoid the chopping block come December. The Tigers have five straight home games to open the season, which will vault them into the national conversation. The slate gets much tougher in mid-October, and it's hard to imagine a team with average quarterback contenders and depth issues on the defensive line to keep things going for three full months. With that said, they'll find a way to at least be competitive.'Pick: Over 6 (-130)

Florida

Over/under 7 wins

  • Wins: Kentucky, USF, Eastern Washington, Missouri, LSU, South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, at Florida State
  • Losses: Utah, at Tennessee, vs. Georgia, at Texas A&M

Analysis: First-year coach Billy Napier has the weight of Gator Nation on his shoulders and a potential superstar under center in dual-threat stud Anthony Richardson. What's more, the running back situation is deep and its members are versatile enough to make the Gator offense dangerous on a consistent basis. With that said, the schedule-makers handed the Gators some tough road/neutral site games, and the opener vs. Utah is going to be a tall order. Pick: Over 7 (-125)

Georgia

Over/under 11.5 wins

  • Wins: vs. Oregon, Samford, at South Carolina, Kent State, at Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt, vs. Florida, Tennessee, at Mississippi State, at Kentucky, Georgia Tech
  • Losses: None

Analysis: Generally speaking, it's hard to go "over" when a team has to go undefeated for the bet to cash. The defending national champions have a great chance of making it happen, though. The opener vs. Oregon in Atlanta will be a tough test for the new-look Bulldogs defense, but the road slate isn't too daunting and cross-division games vs. Auburn and Mississippi State aren't exactly difficult. Quarterback Stetson Bennett IV will lead his team into Atlanta for the second straight season with a CFP berth within grasp. Pick: Over 11.5 (+150)

Kentucky

Over/under 8.5 wins

  • Wins: Miami (OH), Youngstown State, Northern Illinois, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Louisville
  • Losses: at Florida, at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at Missouri, Georgia

Analysis: The Wildcats will be regarded as one of Georgia's top contenders in the SEC East thanks to the stability that coach Mark Stoops brings to the table and the upside for quarterback Will Levis. However, the road slate is absolutely brutal and they still have to host Georgia in November. Stoops and Co. will be extremely competitive, but a nine-win season to cash an over ticket seems a bit extreme. Pick: Under 8.5 (-140)

LSU

Over/under 7 wins

  • Wins: vs. Florida State, Southern, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Tennessee, UAB
  • Losses: at Auburn, at Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama, at Arkansas, at Texas A&M

Analysis: Coach Brian Kelly's first year in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, will be a roller coaster of epic proportions. The quarterback situation is very healthy, but it's hard to trust the offensive line and secondary, which will lead to inconsistency this fall. The Tigers will get out to a hot start, but depth issues combined with an uptick in competition will send Kelly into the postseason with a .500 record. Pick: Under 7 (-130)

Mississippi State

Over/under 6.5 wins

  • Wins: Memphis, at Arizona, Bowling Green, Arkansas, Auburn, East Tennessee State
  • Losses: at LSU, Texas A&M, at Kentucky, at Alabama, Georgia, at Ole Miss

Analysis: Coach Mike Leach has his quarterback in place with Will Rogers, but his wide receiving corps is still a concern, the Bulldogs draw Georgia out of the East as their rotating opponent and it's hard to trust Leach to make adjustments if opposing defenses have early success. Eight straight games to open the season without a bye won't help a team that has some depth issues to sort through. Pick: Under 6 (-110)

Missouri

Over/under 5 wins

  • Wins: Louisiana Tech, at Kansas State, Abilene Christian, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, New Mexico State
  • Losses: at Auburn, Georgia, at Florida, at South Carolina, at Tennessee, Arkansas

Analysis:'Oddsmakers don't have a lot of faith in the Tigers this year, but it's safe to say that coach Eli Drinkwitz will get enough out of his running backs to stay competitive in the East. The home slate is relatively easy and a road trip to Kansas State won't be as challenging as some think. Games vs. South Carolina and Arkansas will determine if this is a decent season or if the Tigers become a pleasant surprise. Pick: Over 5 (-105)

Ole Miss

Over/under 7.5 wins

  • Wins: Troy, Central Arkansas, at Georgia Tech, Tulsa, Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, Auburn, at LSU, at Texas A&M, Mississippi State
  • Losses: Alabama, at Arkansas

Analysis: This is the easiest over bet on the board thanks to coach Lane Kiffin's offensive coaching acumen, a healthy quarterback situation and a wave of incoming transfers who will make the Rebels a tough out this fall. Road games at LSU and Texas A&M to close out a streak of nine straight games to open the year are the hinge games here. Wins in one or both will keep Kiffin's squad in the CFP discussion heading into the final month. Pick: Over 7.5 (-140)'

South Carolina

Over/under 6 wins

  • Wins: Georgia State, Charlotte, South Carolina State, Texas A&M, Missouri, at Vanderbilt, Tennessee
  • Losses: at Arkansas, Georgia, at Kentucky, at Florida, at Clemson

Analysis: Quarterback Spencer Rattler transferred to the Gamecocks and second-year coach Shane Beamer in the offseason and will provide an immediate boost to an offense that didn't get much out of the quarterback position in 2021. He isn't the Heisman Trophy-caliber stud that he was being touted to be this time last year, but his strong arm and experience in the Big 12 will allow the Gamecocks to spring an upset or two en route to a seven-win season. Pick: Over 7 (-125)

Tennessee

Over/under 7.5 wins

  • Wins: Ball State, at Pittsburgh, Akron, Florida, UT-Martin, Kentucky, Missouri, at Vanderbilt
  • Losses: at LSU, Alabama, at Georgia, at South Carolina

Analysis: The Volunteers have a legit dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Hendon Hooker and a wide open offense that should operate faster than any other in the SEC (and maybe the country). That will allow coach Josh Heupel's squad to dictate the style of most games. Styles make fights, which should send the Vols over the total: Pick Over 7.5 (-145)

Texas A&M

Over/under 8.5 wins

  • Wins: Sam Houston, Appalachian State, Miami, at Mississippi State, Florida, at Auburn, UMass, LSU
  • Losses: vs. Arkansas, at Alabama, at South Carolina, Ole Miss

Analysis: The Aggies are the chic pick to make some noise in the SEC West, and the schedule does lend itself to some success. With that said, it's hard to trust a team with massive quarterback uncertainty and a coach in Jimbo Fisher who has had an extremely difficult time handling games vs. equal or lesser opponents. The Aggies will have several toss-up games that will determine which side of the coin cashes, and this team will be more susceptible to upset losses than upset wins. Pick: Under 8.5 (+145)

Vanderbilt

Over/under 2.5 wins

  • Wins: at Hawaii, Elon
  • Losses: Wake Forest, at Northern Illinois, at Alabama, Ole Miss, at Georgia, at Missouri, South Carolina, at Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee

Analysis: The Northern Illinois game is the swing game for the Commodores. The defending MAC champs are not a pushover by any stretch of the imagination, especially for an offensively-challenged Commodores squad that finished last in the conference in total offense, yards per play and scoring offense in 2021. A cross-division rotating game at Alabama is the college football equivalent of cruel and unusual punishment, and a road game against defending national champion Georgia doesn't help matters for coach Clark Lea. Pick: Under 2.5 (-170)

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