Corner Picks: Bets bets, odds, soccer predictions for AC Milan vs. Inter Milan, Man United vs. Arsenal, more

Sat, Sep 3, 2022
Soccer News (AP)

Is the world ready to admit the Premier League might be the best in the world, but it's facing something of a crisis? The biggest problem I, and many other soccer fans, have with Germany's Bundesliga is that, while there are plenty of exciting teams and players in the league, Bayern Munich win it every year. While Bayern are tied for first entering the weekend, they have outscored opponents 16-2 through four matches.

have won the Premier League in four of the last five seasons, and even though won the league by 18 points in 2019-20, City finished with a higher xG (expected goals) and a lower xG allowed. In other words, advanced metrics suggest Liverpool might have been the beneficiary of some luck that year, and it looks like Liverpool -- and everybody else -- will need a lot more of it to overcome City this season.

Even with City currently in second place, they have outscored opponents 19-5 through five matches. has already scored nine goals. Liverpool, the team seen as City's primary challenger, are already five points behind in the table. 'are six back. are the only Premier League team with a perfect record, but their "best" win came against eighth-place , who were just promoted from the Championship this season. Until Arsenal face the big clubs, it's hard to know how good they truly are.

And even if they're better, can we expect an Arsenal team that improved by adding players who couldn't get regular minutes at City (Gabriel Jesus and ) to be better than City over 38 matches?

It's the first weekend of September, and it already seems City will run away with the league and win their third straight Premier League title and fifth in six seasons. There's no scenario in which one team being that dominant is good for a league.

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All odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

AC Milan vs. Inter Milan

Date: Saturday, Sept. 3 | Time: 12 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

AC Milan vs. Inter Milan Spread Moneyline Total MIL -0.5 +160 BET NOW +165 BET NOW o2.5 -110 BET NOW INT +0.5 -200 BET NOW +180 BET NOW u2.5 -120 BET NOW DRAW +215 BET NOW

It's one of the best rivalries in all sports; it's the Derby della Madonnina between the last two Serie A champions. Unfortunately for AC Milan, the team currently wearing the Scudetto, they have not looked the better of the two in the early going. While it's very possible Milan were taking it easy against Sassuolo earlier this week to stay fresh for this match, it was still an uninspiring performance in a 0-0 draw. Frankly, even if moving at half-speed, Milan should've been more threatening than they were against a Sassuolo side that will likely finish mid-table.

Meanwhile, Inter have looked far more threatening. Yes, they lost to Lazio 3-1 last week, but the xG tells a far different story for that match. Of course, there is some concern, as Inter's three wins have come against teams that will likely be fighting for survival this season. Still, recent history suggests Inter will be the team to back in this rivalry. The rivals have met 11 times since the start of the 2018 season, and Inter have won seven of the matches with two draws. Milan have won only twice. The Pick: Inter Milan (+160)

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Fiorentina vs. Juventus

Date: Saturday, Sept. 3 | Time: 9 a.m. ET | Watch: AP Sports Network/Paramount+

Fiorentina vs. Juventus Spread Moneyline Total FIO +0.5 -180 BET NOW +210 BET NOW o2.5 +122 BET NOW JUV -0.5 +140 BET NOW +145 BET NOW u2.5 -155 BET NOW DRAW +210 BET NOW

For the last few seasons, I've tried to convince more American soccer fans to follow Serie A because it's been an exciting, high-scoring league. I've often bet the over in matches in this column because of it. Well, uh, that hasn't been the case so far this season. It's still early, but Serie A matches have averaged only 2.35 goals per match. That's just ahead of Spain's La Liga (2.33) to avoid being the lowest average of Europe's five major leagues (Ligue 1 is at a ridiculous 3.47). These two teams are partially to blame.

Juve have allowed only one goal in its first four matches as Massimiliano Allegri has his team playing his ideal brand of soccer: Slow and tedious, with the occasional display of brilliance from Dusan Vlahovic. It hasn't been exciting to watch, but it's been effective enough. Meanwhile, Fiorentina sent out their B-team to face Udinese earlier this week and lost 1-0. Unfortunately for Fiorentina, they can't blame the backups because this team has been anemic in attack outside of the 3-2 win over Cremonese to start the season. Those three goals scored in the opener were the only three goals they have scored in Serie A this season. The Pick: Under 2.5 (-140)

vs. Arsenal

Date: Sunday, Sept. 4 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: USA via fuboTV (Try for free)

Manchester United vs. Arsenal Spread Moneyline Total MAN -0.5 +155 BET NOW +160 BET NOW o2.5 -140 BET NOW ARS +0.5 -190 BET NOW +165 BET NOW u2.5 +110 BET NOW DRAW +250 BET NOW

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Arsenal Overs would likely be a well we often visit this season, and we're going to it again this weekend. This will be a huge litmus test for both teams, and I expect it'll be fun to watch. When was the last time anybody could say that about this fixture? Anyway, my thoughts on Arsenal haven't changed. They are an exciting team to watch, and they will score a lot of goals this season. They are also a team that looks shaky in defense and will give up goals to any team with a pulse.

While it looked different two weeks ago, Manchester United have a pulse. Erik ten Hag has made some necessary changes to the team, and while United's transfer policy the last couple of weeks reminds me of a stoned teenager in a convenience store, the results have been much better. That said, the xG numbers suggest United might be getting a little lucky defensively, and Arsenal are a team that will make you pay for mistakes. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-140)

Weekend Parlay

This weekend's parlay is only three legs, but it pays +144.

Real Madrid (-235)
Lyon (-350)
Villarreal (-300)

	Record	Units
League Play	8-8	+1.98
Champions League	0-0	+0.00
Overall	8-8	+1.98