Juan Soto or bust: Should Cardinals go all-in for slugger or frontline starter?
Thu, Jul 28, 2022
MLB News (AP)
AP Sports MLB Writer
The'St. Louis Cardinals have an interesting decision to make over the next five days.'
As they chase the Brewers in the NL Central race, the Cardinals have reportedly emerged as a legitimate suitor in the spectacular'Juan Soto sweepstakes. They have reportedly been in touch with the'Nationals already and a hypothetical haul has begun to take form. It remains unclear how likely it is that Soto is actually traded, but we know St Louis is in the mix.'
Ben Verlander welcomes MLB Insider Ken Rosenthal to dive into possible landing spots for Juan Soto, including the Padres, Cardinals and Yankees.Any armchair GM can look at the Cardinals' roster, however, and recognize that starting pitching is a much more dire need than an outfield slugger.'
We've all been there before in one scenario or another: One option is more fun, but the other is probably a bit more responsible considering your circumstance. Which will it be for the Cardinals? Let's review these two paths that St. Louis could take in the coming days.'
Swing for Soto
If the Soto negotiations heat up in earnest and the superstar outfielder is indeed moved before the 6 p.m. ET deadline on Aug. 2, the Cardinals are in great position. The edge they have compared to most of the other teams in pursuit of Soto is their ability to combine high-end prospects with excellent young players already performing in the big leagues.'
I also think the Nationals would be wise to target as many position players as possible in a Soto deal, as hitters are much less risky than pitchers injury-wise. Plus, hitters performing at the upper levels are solid bets to excel in the big leagues.'
And hitters are what St. Louis has to offer - in spades.'
There's 23-year-old'Dylan Carlson, a switch-hitter who can play center field. There's 22-year-old'Nolan Gorman, who can play second or third base and has some of the most power of any young player in the game. Even guys like'Juan Yepez (24) and'Brendan Donovan (25) already look like valuable role players and are under team control for at least five more seasons.
Look to the farm and you'll find third baseman Jordan Walker, a top-10 prospect in the game currently rocking an .879 OPS as a 20-year-old in Double-A. His teammate, Masyn Winn, is an electric shortstop with a rapidly improving bat and a rocket for an arm. Alec Burleson, a 23-year-old outfielder, has been one of the best hitters in Triple-A this season.'
Some combination of the established young big leaguers and these top-tier prospects would be an excellent foundation for a Soto deal.
Whatever combination of names, it would surely cost a whole lot more than what St. Louis gave up to acquire Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado. But for Soto, it would likely be worth the hurt of trading those homegrown players.'
Much of the discussion surrounding the favorites to land Soto is understandably focused on what kinds of players the teams have to offer. As established, the Cardinals fit the criteria there, with a plethora of young players who would intrigue the Nationals. But it's also worth considering the Cardinals as an ideal candidate based on their history of acquiring - and then retaining - franchise players.'
Look no further than the current star-studded infield headlined by'Goldschmidt, who was acquired from Arizona before the 2019 season and eventually extended, and'Arenado, acquired from Colorado in 2021 with a long-term deal already attached to him.'
Rewind a bit further and find Matt Holliday, acquired from Oakland at the 2009 trade deadline. St. Louis went on to sign him to a long-term deal the following winter. Or go back to the 2002 deadline, when the Cardinals traded for Gold Glove third baseman Scott Rolen from Philadelphia and extended him by the end of the year. Two years earlier, they did the same thing with star center fielder Jim Edmonds, acquired from the Angels. You also may recall a large fellow named Mark McGwire a few years before that. He wasn't too shabby as a young slugger with the A's, and he finished his career in St. Louis.
AP Sports' Ben Verlander tells us who he believes are the top five teams to trade for Juan Soto.Now, if it hasn't been made clear enough, there is little historical precedent for teams to trade players of Soto's age and ability other than the Marlins dealing a 24-year-old Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers in 2007. Any trade for Soto is an entirely different beast than any previous deal, and keeping him in St. Louis beyond 2024 would cost a boatload more than any long-term deal the Cardinals have ever secured with a star player. Still, it's undeniable that this is an organization with an appetite for a deal of this nature.'
All that said ... is Soto really what this team needs the most right now?
Settle for starting pitching
Three Cardinals starting pitchers -'Jack Flaherty,'Steven Matz and Dakota Hudson - are currently on the IL, with varying timelines to return. This has cut away at a rotation that wasn't especially intimidating to begin with, particularly in relation to the team they are chasing in the NL Central, the Brewers.'
On the whole, St. Louis' run prevention has been solid: The starters' 4.09 ERA is roughly league-average and is largely a product of combining a 47.5% ground-ball rate (second-best in MLB) with an elite infield defense. What this rotation severely lacks is a pitcher capable of racking up whiffs and completely stifling some of the game's best offenses. Cardinals starters rank 26th in MLB with a 18.3% strikeout rate. Milwaukee's starters boast a 25% strikeout rate, which is tied with the Mets for first in the league.'
Miles Mikolas was an All-Star this month, and'Adam Wainwright is seemingly eternal, but it's a lot to expect of either of them to go against the best Game 1 and 2 starters come postseason time. Flaherty was certainly trending toward becoming an ace earlier in this career, but his recent shoulder ailments leave his both availability and effectiveness as huge question marks for the near future.'
Hudson is strictly a ground-ball machine, and rookie'Andre Pallante, who has slotted into the rotation due to the recent injuries, is also more of a pitch-to-contact guy. Matz has garnered whiffs when he has pitched, but he hasn't been consistently effective on the whole and has struggled to stay healthy. You see the issue.'
Put another way: Why buy a fancy new TV if the couch you sit on to watch it is completely falling apart? You should probably get a new couch first.
Rather than emptying the tank for Soto, a better use of St. Louis' resources may be to keep contributing big leaguers like Carlson and Gorman on the roster and deal strictly from the farm to acquire a pitcher like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas. Each is 29 years old, each is under contract through next season, and each features multiple swing-and-miss pitches that this pitching staff badly craves.'
If I were GM John Mozeliak, Castillo would be my priority. His changeup is one of the best individual pitches in the entire league, he has a longer track record of dominance than Montas, and he's plenty familiar competing in the NL Central having spent six seasons with Cincinnati. He's a great fit for any team in need of starting pitching, but I think the Cardinals need him the most.'
If there is one saving grace, it's that the Cardinals' bullpen, which was expected to be an even bigger question mark than the rotation, has been quietly competent for much of the season.'Jordan Hicks has been excellent since returning to the bullpen (I still don't understand why he was ever starting to begin with),'Genesis Cabrera and'Giovanny Gallegos are excellent bridge guys, and'Ryan Helsley has emerged as one of premier closers in the National League. The Cardinals could stand to add some more middle relief help, but the focus must remain on the rotation.'
It's possible St. Louis can catch Milwaukee without any major additions, but I wouldn't bet on it. This is a top-heavy roster with obvious room for improvement. The Cardinals may no longer be the NL juggernaut they were in the peak-Pujols days, but the ever-admirable reality is that this organization is truly always trying to win.'
Whether it's Soto or a frontline starter, there is a big move to be made for Mozeliak & Co. Now we wait to find out what it is.'
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for AP Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.