Michigan State vs. Western Michigan odds, prediction: 2022 Week 1 college football picks by model on 45-32 run
Thu, Sep 1, 2022
NCAAF News (AP)
Spartan Stadium hosts an in-state, season-opening battle on Friday evening when the Michigan State Spartans take on the Western Michigan Broncos in the 17th all-time meeting between the programs. Western Michigan, led by head coach Tim Lester, finished with an 8-5 record last season, winning the Quick Lane Bowl. Michigan State was 11-2 in Mel Tucker's second season, netting the head coach a highly lucrative 10-year contract extension.
Kickoff is at 7 p.m. ET in East Lansing. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Spartans as 22.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 54.5 in the latest Western Michigan vs. Michigan State odds. Before making any Michigan State vs. Western Michigan picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 1 of the 2022 college football season on a 45-32 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Western Michigan vs. Michigan State and just locked in its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several college football odds and betting lines for Michigan State vs. Western Michigan:
- Michigan State vs. Western Michigan spread: MSU -22.5'
- Michigan State vs. Western Michigan over/under: 54.5 points'
- Michigan State vs. Western Michigan money line: MSU -2000, WMU +1050'
- WMU: The Broncos led the MAC in total defense in 2021'
- MSU: The Spartans have a 12-game winning streak over WMU
- Michigan State vs. Western Michigan picks: See picks here.
Why Western Michigan can cover
Western Michigan's eight-win season in 2021 was its best since 2016, and the Broncos won their last game against a Power 5 opponent, upsetting Pittsburgh on the road last season. The Broncos led the MAC in total defense last season, allowing only 339.3 total yards per game, and Western Michigan produced 35 sacks while giving up a paltry 55.4 percent completion rate. Western Michigan was also No. 2 in the MAC in rushing defense, yielding 147.4 yards per game, and Michigan State lost All-American running back Kenneth Walker to the NFL.'
On the offensive side, Western Michigan lost its quarterback, but the Broncos return two top-flight running backs in Sean Tyler and La'Darius Jefferson. Tyler ran for 1,150 yards and nine touchdowns last season, averaging 6.5 yards per carry, and Jefferson produced ten touchdowns and more than 800 rushing yards. Western Michigan has the personnel to take advantage of a potentially weak Michigan State defense that yielded 96 points in losses to Purdue and Ohio State in 2021. The Spartans finished dead-last in the Big Ten in passing defense, and Western Michigan returns Corey Crooms at the wide receiver spot, who averaged 17.5 yards per catch with six touchdowns in 2021.
Why Michigan State can cover
Michigan State faces a friendly circumstance on Friday. The Spartans were one of the best against-the-spread teams in the country in 2021, posting a 9-3-1 record against the number. Michigan State was 11-2 overall and unbeaten at home in East Lansing. The Spartans also own a 12-game winning streak over Western Michigan, with the last loss in the series coming in 1919. Western Michigan is 0-15 against top-25 teams since 2000, and Michigan State has considerable talent to lean on in this matchup.'
Quarterback Payton Thorne is back after setting a new program record for touchdown passes last season, and he is also a threat on the ground with 322 non-sack rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Leading receiver Jayden Reed is also back after a 1,000-yard season in 2021, and Tucker added quality transfers in Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard to replace the departing contributions of Walker. On defense, Michigan State led the Big Ten with 38 sacks last season, and the Spartans also limited opponents to only 3.4 yards per carry with only nine rushing touchdowns allowed. Western Michigan is also replacing a highly prolific combination of quarterback Kaleb Eleby and receiver Skyy Moore, providing another edge for Michigan State.
How to make Western Michigan vs. Michigan State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, with both teams projected to record more than 235 passing yards. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's CFB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Western Michigan vs. Michigan State? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Western Michigan vs. Michigan State spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out. '
