NBA picks, best bets: 76ers keep momentum vs. Heat; scoring should rise in Suns-Mavericks Game 5

Tue, May 10, 2022
NBA News (AP)

With the 2021-22'NBA'regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. AP Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline Spread Total MIA -160 BET NOW -3 -110 BET NOW o209.5 -110 BET NOW PHI +140 BET NOW +3 -110 BET NOW u209.5 -110 BET NOW

OK, OK I promise, I won't mention DeAndre Jordan in my Game 6 pick for this series. This is the last time. But we're through four games in this series... and the 76ers are plus-29 in the 161 minutes they've played without Jordan on the floor. This ain't rocket science. When Joel Embiid is on the floor, Philly has been a far better team. When Paul Reed is on the floor, the Sixers can hold their own. The shooting variance in favor of the home team in this series has been wild, but with Kyle Lowry injured and Embiid back in the fold, the Sixers should be favored until Miami proves it can beat him. The pick: 76ers +3

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Over 213 Bet Now

The last two games have been fairly low-scoring, but they'e also been outliers in a number of ways. Phoenix shot over 55 percent on 2-pointers in the regular season. The Suns shot 47.6 percent on 2's in the Dallas games. They committed 17 turnovers in each of those games after averaging 13 for the regular season. They committed 25 fouls in Game 4 after averaging under 20 for the season. This isn't to dismiss the impact that the Dallas defense has had on Phoenix. The Mavericks could easily win this thing. But given the low point total here, we should project these teams to hit the over with some general regression. The pick: Over 213