NFC Championship: 49ers seeking third win against Rams in one season; how tough is it to pull off trifecta?
Fri, Jan 28, 2022
NFL News (AP)
The San Francisco 49ers have owned the Los Angeles Rams over the last several seasons, winning the last six meetings over their NFC West rivals. The last time Los Angeles beat San Francisco was in the final week of the 2018 regular season, the year the Rams reached Super Bowl LIII.
Since Kyle Shanahan turned the 49ers into NFC contenders, Sean McVay and the Rams just haven't been able to beat them. If the Rams fall to the 49ers on Sunday, McVay will be the first coach to lose seven straight times to a single opponent since Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals) lost eight games in a row to Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers). Even though the Rams are home, Los Angeles appears to be the underdog since it hasn't been able to beat the 49ers.
How hard is it for the 49ers to beat the Rams again? This NFC Championship Game will be the fourth conference championship game between intra-divisional opponents since the 2002 realignment, yet only one has swept their division opponent heading into the conference championship (2008 Pittsburgh Steelers swept the Baltimore Ravens then proceeded to beat them in the conference championship).
The 49ers can become the seventh team since 2000 to beat a team three times in the same season. Is the challenge to go 3-0 against an opponent that tough? Looking at the playoff matchups since the AFL-NFL merger where one opponent has swept the other in the regular season, let's see if history favors the 49ers.
| Year | Sweeping team (regular season) | Team swept | Playoff result |
|---|---|---|---|
1982 | Dolphins | Jets | Dolphins won 14-0 |
1983 | Seahawks | Raiders | Raiders won 30-14 |
1986 | Giants | Washington | Giants won 17-0 |
1989 | Oilers | Steelers | Steelers won 26-23 |
1991 | Chiefs | Raiders | Chiefs won 10-6 |
1992 | Chiefs | Chargers | Chargers won 17-0 |
1993 | Raiders | Broncos | Raiders won 42-24 |
1994 | Vikings | Bears | Bears won 35-18 |
1994 | Steelers | Browns | Steelers won 29-9 |
1997 | Packers | Buccaneers | Packers won 21-7 |
1997 | Patriots | Dolphins | Patriots won 17-3 |
1998 | Cowboys | Cardinals | Cardinals won 20-7 |
1999 | Titans | Jaguars | Titans won 33-14 |
2000 | Giants | Eagles | Giants won 20-10 |
2002 | Steelers | Browns | Steelers won 36-33 |
2004 | Packers | Vikings | Vikings won 31-17 |
2004 | Rams | Seahawks | Rams won 27-20 |
2007 | Cowboys | Giants | Giants won 21-17 |
2008 | Steelers | Ravens | Steelers won 23-14 |
2009 | Cowboys | Eagles | Cowboys won 34-14 |
2017 | Saints | Panthers | Saints won 31-26 |
2020 | Saints | Buccaneers | Buccaneers won 30-20 |
Teams going for the three-game sweep in the playoffs are 14-8, a win percentage of 63.6%. The adage of "it's hard to beat a team three times in a season" has been debunked, especially since those teams going for the three-game sweep are 6-3 since 2000 (a win percentage of 66.7%, which is actually higher than the overall win percentage since the merger).
The Rams are trying to avoid the three-game sweep on their home turf, which is only the fifth time this has happened in NFL history. The home team is 2-2 when playing the third matchup at home after being swept earlier in the year. The team going for the sweep playing on the road has won their last two matchups -- the 1999 Tennessee Titans and the 2004 St. Louis Rams. That 1999 Titans team handed the Jaguars their only three losses of the season.
When the third matchup is the conference championship game, the team going for the sweep is 4-1. The 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers are the only team this century to play the third matchup in the conference championship game, so there isn't much recent history to fall back on.
History does favor the 49ers when looking at the big picture of the third matchup, yet the task will be difficult on the road. The 49ers are familiar with SoFi Stadium and are expected to have a contingent of fans entering opposing territory, which should also help them attempt beat the Rams for the seventh straight time.
