NFL odds: 3 reasons to bet on the 49ers against the Rams

Thu, Jan 27, 2022
NFL News (AP)

The NFC Championship Game is finally here! We get the San Francisco 49ers heading to Los Angeles trying to win their third matchup with the Rams this season. If San Francisco can pull this game out, it will cap off an improbable run to the Super Bowl.

So how should you wager on this powerhouse matchup taking place Sunday on AP? I have you covered, with three reasons to bet on the 49ers - with odds via AP Bet.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, AP)

Hit Matthew Stafford, early and often

The Niners' defensive script against the Rams continues to work. There's no mystery about San Francisco's desire to rush the passer without bringing any extra rushers. The Niners lead the league in pressure rate with four or fewer rushers, at just a tad over 30% for the season. That means nearly one in three pass plays results in a San Francisco pass rusher getting into the face of the opposing quarterback.

That's extremely important against the Rams because Matthew Stafford is money against the blitz. Stafford has one of the best passer ratings in NFL history against the blitz, and the pressure rate against him is lower against a blitz, which feels almost impossible. To me, that shows that Stafford is dialed into his answers against an extra defender and can find his outlet before getting hit.

Like all quarterbacks, Staffy is worse when there's pressure in his face. He completes 70% of passes with no pressure and only 54.7% while facing pressure. His passer rating drops from 113.7 to 66.8 when he's feeling the heat from the defense, and he's only thrown four touchdowns to six interceptions under duress.

More specifically, in the two Rams' losses against the 49ers this season, Stafford was a different quarterback, as the Niners made him feel uncomfortable in the pocket with a four-man rush. Stafford was pressured 31.4% of the time without a blitz. This led to him having a passer rating of 61.3 and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 2:4. On the flip side, when the Niners blitzed Stafford, he completed 88% (!!!) of passes with two touchdowns and 12.4 yards per attempt.

It will be vital for Rams' left tackle Andrew Whitworth to return this weekend, and I believe he will play. That shifts the attention to right tackle Rob Havenstein and his matchup against the 49ers' excellent edge rusher Nick Bosa. Havenstein allowed three of his seven sacks this season against the 49ers and 21% of his pressures for the season in those two games.

The Niners excelled in their Week 18 win with an inside pass rush, and they will continue to have a matchup advantage there this weekend. Arik Armstead had seven pressures, including three sacks, while Arden Key had four pressures and a sack. The 49ers must once again get after Stafford this weekend if they want to win.

Don't get cute and run the offense

Kyle Shanahan has owned Sean McVay, as the Niners have won six in a row against the Rams. If you compare both teams on paper, there is not a lot that sticks out for San Francisco. And the Niners have not always been the most talented team in the matchup, but they've figured out ways to win. Besides the simple explanation of the Niners winning at the line of scrimmage and being the more physical team - which has definitely been the case - it has been hard for me to figure out a scheme advantage for the Niners in this matchup, especially with their offense against the Rams' defense. Well, not anymore. Thanks to Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus, we have the best theory as to why the Niners' offense has successfully moved the ball on the Rams.

The Rams' defense is quite active before the snap while they try to disguise their coverage for that snap. Los Angeles only runs the coverage they show pre-snap 55% of the time, the lowest amount in the NFL. In layman's terms, if the Rams show two high safeties before the snap, they rotate a safety down once the ball is snapped to run a single high coverage defense.

Well, the Niners run motion or shift before an offensive snap more than any team in the NFL. San Francisco's movement before the snap forces Los Angeles' defense to stay more stagnant, allowing the Niners' offense to know where the defenders will be post-snap. That helps Shanahan design a run game to his advantage and, of course, helps Jimmy G. find open receivers.

The Rams' early-down, pre-snap disguise dropped to just below 30% against the 49ers while it was near 43% against the rest of the NFL. I would strongly recommend watching Eric explain this idea in this video.

The Niners understand this, but it is vital they keep running their offense without fear the Rams might "know what they are doing." I think we saw the lack of fear of the Rams knowing what the Niners are doing play out in the Week 18 victory. The Niners were down 17-0 and started the second half down 17-3. They did not panic but instead ran their offense. San Francisco ran the ball, eventually tying the game and winning in overtime. The Niners need to stick with that same game plan in this contest.

Explosive pass play offense

Jimmy Garoppolo is a polarizing quarterback. He isn't viewed as an elite quarterback, which is why the Niners drafted his replacement in Trey Lance. No matter the outcome of this season, Jimmy will not be the starting quarterback of this team next season. Despite the public perception, his advanced numbers like his expected points added (EPA) are legit, as he was tied for fourth in the NFL during the regular season. And if you combine his completion percentage over expected and his EPA, he still ranks fourth. Quarterbacks in the same category? Patrick Mahomes, who is above Jimmy G., and then Tom Brady, who is just below.

More traditional numbers back up where Jimmy G. excels on the field. Garoppolo leads the NFL in completion percentage and yards per attempt on play-action pass attempts. Also, Garoppolo was top five in the NFL in intermediate passes completion percentage and passer rating. These are essential plays for the offense because the Niners are so run-heavy that mixing in explosive pass plays keeps the defense honest and gives you chunk plays.

However, the playoffs have not been kind for the quarterback this season. He's completing only 44% of intermediate passes for 5.9 yards per attempt. Yuck. And his passer rating went from 118.4 in the regular season to a horrific 24 in the playoffs when it comes to pass attempts between 10 and 19 yards.

More specifically, his completion percentage dropped 20% on play-action passes, and his yards per attempt have gone down. The Niners desperately need Jimmy G. to ignite this part of their offense to be a more complete team. The 49ers will run the ball well, but that is rarely enough to win games, especially in the playoffs.

Jimmy G. finding Deebo Samuel over the middle and allowing him to terrorize the Rams' defense will help them win this game.

PICK: 49ers (+3.5 at AP Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for AP Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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