NFL odds: 4 player prop bets to make for conference championship weekend

Fri, Jan 28, 2022
NFL News (AP)

We know wagering on a side or total for a game can be difficult when there are only four games on the weekend, which is why I've got some player prop bets I like to help us win some wagers!

Here are my best prop bets, with odds courtesy of AP Bet.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

I miss the days of discussing whether the Chiefs' offense is broken. It never was, but those discussions gave me life.

I'm sure the Bills and now Bengals are wishing their offense was off track because it's becoming increasingly difficult to stop this team. The Chiefs have averaged 37.5 points per game since their Week 14 victory against the Raiders, which continued through their win against the Bills.

In the playoffs with Mahomes, the Chiefs have scored under 31 points only twice in 10 games, both of those last season, when Mahomes got injured against the Browns and then in the Super Bowl with that beat-up offensive line facing Tampa Bay.

Kansas City scored 31 points in the Chiefs' first matchup with the Bengals, with only three of those points coming in the second half. I'm not sure what resistance the Bengals defense will provide unless the Chiefs have massive turnover issues.

I would not be surprised if the Chiefs neared 45 points in this game.

PICK: Chiefs (team total over 32.5 at AP Bet) to score more than 32.5 points

You can refer to the above wager about my feelings towards the Chiefs offense in this game. But specifically, when it comes to Mahomes, he's is so locked in this time of the year. He's averaging 310 yards passing in his 10 playoff games, which is remarkable.

How is this for a fun fact? In his career, when facing a team he's lost to earlier in the season, he's averaging 345 pass yards in those five games.

On the flip side, have you all seen the Chiefs' defense? Unless they magically begin defending the pass better, Joe Burrow will sail over this number. Burrow's averaging 288 yards this season and threw for 446 yards earlier this year against the Chiefs.

The Bengals will also need to rely on their passing attack to keep up the Chiefs. Burrow is their offense, and I'd expect a big game from him.

PICK: Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow both over 250 passing yards (-120 at AP Bet)

With Mahomes starting to use his legs again, the Chiefs' offense has taken a step up to a new level. I don't know if Mahomes ignored using that component of his game, or maybe it just wasn't part of the offense, but in the last four weeks, he has rushed for at least 25 yards in all those games.

With this being a win-or-go-home game, I'd expect the same rushing effort we saw last weekend against Buffalo. When things break down, Mahomes is taking off. I wouldn't be surprised if all of the 29 yards happen on a single scramble if the Bengals play two-man.

PICK: Patrick Mahomes doer 28.5 rushing yards at AP Bet

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, AP)

I like this wager because there's value on the number. If you parlay the Niners to win plus Samuel's receiving prop of 50.5 yards, it pays out less than +410.

To get over the 56.5 yards, Samuel would need those 51 passing yards, and he's had at least 19 yards rushing in a game since week 10. Since that week 10 rushing explosion, he's had over 56.5 total yards in every game.

The 49ers winning is the most challenging part of this wager, but they've won six times in a row against the Rams. You can refer to my article on how the Niners will get back to a Super Bowl.

PICK: Deebo Samuel over 56.5 total yards and 49ers win (+410 at AP Bet)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for AP Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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