NFL odds: Buccaneers over Rams is the bet you need to make (and more)

Thu, Jan 20, 2022
NFL News (AP)

After a lackluster Super Wild Card Weekend, we have some monster contests in the divisional round. The two AFC favorites meet in Kansas City, the Rams head to Tampa Bay and the upstart Bengals try to continue their magical season.

So what will I be wagering on this weekend? Let's jump into my best NFL bets, with odds via AP Bet.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Yes, the Rams have a talented team with elite impact players at pass rusher, corner, wide receiver, left tackle and running back...but they don't have Tom Brady.

And wagering against Tom Brady in a playoff game, especially at home, is something this writer does very gingerly. And when the opposing quarterback is Matthew Stafford, it pushes me closer in the direction of Tom Brady and the Bucs.

Tom Brady has lost a single home playoff game since 2012, which was in 2018 with a skeleton of a New England Patriots roster. This season, the Bucs have covered seven of their last eight games at home, often winning by double-digits.

The way to stop a Tom Brady offense is two-fold. You need to rush the passer, and the Rams can do that with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd. Brandon Thorn, an industry expert when it comes to watching the trenches, created the true sack rate (TSR).

TSR helps identify which rushers utilized the highest skill level against the most challenging set of circumstances to record a sack. No surprise, but Aaron Donald is the highest graded defensive tackle while Leonard Floyd is ranked 12th. Luckily for the Bucs, they have an outstanding offensive line. There are some injury concerns with Wirfs at right tackle, but I expect him to play.

The Bucs have the lowest pressure rate allowed of any offensive line in the NFL, and Tom Brady knows where to throw and gets rid of it quickly. Yes, that will be tough against this Rams pass defense, which brings me to the second aspect of shutting down the Bucs' offense.

Mike Evans has not fared well against the Rams Jalen Ramsey in the past, but Brady knows this and will adjust accordingly. These adjustments might lead to a lower-scoring game.

In the end, I come back to the same thought. Matthew Stafford is 4-33 in his career straight up as an underdog and has only covered in 30% of those games. If the Rams can run the football as they did against Arizona and Stafford only throws the ball 17 times, the Rams would win. But that's is not happening against this Bucs run defense, which is one of the best in the league against the run.

The more attempts Stafford has, the more opportunity for an interception. I just can't wager on him right now, so I'll take the Bucs.

PICK: Buccaneers (-2.5 at AP Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The question I've seen posted all week is, "If Buffalo and Kansas City play their best game on Sunday night, who will win?" Seeing as though the best Bills game is scoring a touchdown on every offensive possession Saturday night against the Patriots, I'm ok with the logic that the Bills would win on Sunday. However, the question should be, "Which Buffalo Bills team will we get Sunday night?"

Football Outsiders has a metric called "variance," which measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. It doesn't mean you're a winner or a loser, just that we can expect nearly the same efficiency performance each weekend. The Buffalo Bills rank 32nd in variance this season playing the 32nd ranked schedule. Yikes.

And, if you don't like using DVOA, I can use Josh Allen's numbers this season. Let's look at the quarterback's last six games.

Allen completed nearly 67% of his passes for 308 yards in a losing effort to the Buccaneers in Week 14. The Bills smoked the Panthers the following week, with Allen completing 55% of his passes for 210 passing yards. Buffalo continued their winning in a revenge spot against the Patriots. If you recall, Allen was magnificent in that game, finishing with 314 yards completing 64% of his passes.

The following two weeks against the Falcons and Jets at home, Allen only completed 25 of 68 passes for 359 yards as the Bills finished the season with two wins. Then last weekend, we again saw him dominate the Patriots, completing 21 of 25 for 308 yards and five passing touchdowns. The math would tell you this weekend we will not see the same Bills offense against a Chiefs defense that can slow down opponents if they don't get in their own way.

The Chiefs seem hell-bent on playing guys on defense who can not run or tackle over younger players who appear to do it better. The Chiefs' defense is vastly different now than in the first matchup in which the Bills won. As a reminder, rematches of games that happened 15 weeks ago rarely impact rematches in the playoffs. The Chiefs are a different defense, and the Bills have a different roster, too.

While I don't know which Bills team - especially the offense - I'll get on Sunday, I do know what Chiefs team I will see. It's not perfect and is frustrating to watch at times, but we know Kansas City will score points now. The Chiefs have stopped the turnovers, Patrick Mahomes is playing well again, their offensive line is elite and the weapons outside of Kelce and Hill have stepped up.

At times, the Chiefs shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and mistakes, but their offense is back to third in DVOA. They are playing a Bills defense that is excellent at stopping the pass but will be missing their best corner, a big difference from the first game.

The Bills are a sound defense that will force the Chiefs to be patient. They've brought pressure on less than 10% of snaps over the last three matchups. It'll be up to the Chiefs offense to be willing to accept the lack of explosive play options and grind this game out.

Also, worth noting, Mahomes is 14-4-2 against the spread as a starter when the line is at -3 or below. Mahomes has failed to cover just two of the seven home playoff games he's started. One of those was a loss to the Patriots in 2018, and the other was last season when he got hurt against the Browns, but the Chiefs won anyway.

The Chiefs have lost two playoff games with Mahomes, but those have both been to Tom Brady. I'm taking the Chiefs here.

PICK: Chiefs (-1.5 at AP Bet) to win by more than 1.5 points

Two-team, 6-point Teaser

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)

Titans teased from -3.5 to +3

I believe in analytics and advanced stats, and I use them all the time in my research and work. The overall team efficiency numbers for the Titans are some of the worst for a one-seed in NFL history. According to the Football Outsiders DVOA metric, the Titans rank 20th as a team, 20th on offense, 12th on defense and 22nd on special teams. What these numbers don't account for is their injury list.

Tennessee has had the most players on their active roster in league history. The team has kept winning despite all of this because it's well-coached, tough and physical. The Titans have beaten the Chiefs, Bills and 49ers, just to name a few. They've also had their stinkers, which might explain their DVOA numbers. This writeup is a long way to say that I'm sure Tennessee is better than its numbers.

The Titans return Derrick Henry to the lineup after a long trip on the injured reserve. The Titans' rushing numbers are about the same without Henry, but adding him back will boost the offense. They are facing a Bengals rushing defense that ranks 14th in the NFL and will be without defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi after he went on the injured reserve. It will be tough to slow down a healthy Titans offensive line and rushing attack.

But, more important than Henry is a healthy A.J. Brown. The Titans are 11-2 in the 13 games Brown has played, and he's the deep threat Ryan Tannehill needs in this play-action heavy offense. On throws that are 10 plus air yards, he completes 26% more of his passes with Brown on the field. The Bengals allowed the seventh-highest passer on 10 plus yard pass attempts this season. On paper, it appears the Bengals will struggle to stop this Titans offense. So can the Bengals keep pace on offense?

Quarterback Joe Burrow has been fantastic over his last three starts. He's completing 76% of passes with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. This past weekend, he was good against the Raiders, but the offense kept staling in the red zone. Like every game the Bengals play, Burrow will need to throw the ball quickly. The Bengals offensive line is poor, grading 25th in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus. While the Titans don't generate as much pressure as most, they have individual players like Jeffrey Simmons, who are outstanding at rushing the passer.

If the Titans do not get home, the defense is likely to struggle defending the pass against the Bengals' variety of pass-catching options. In the end, though, I think the Titans can do enough on defense to slow down the Bengals, who only had 305 yards of offense against the Raiders.

This game opened briefly at Titans, favored by 2.5, and was quickly bet up to Titans 3.5. I hate wagering on 3.5, so I would sit tight to see if Bengals money pushes this number back to 3, then I'd take the Titans. Until then, I'm taking the Titans in a teaser.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, AP)

Packers teased from -6 to PK'Em

This game is tough to preview because of the unknown status of Niners quarterback Jimmy Garapolo. There are rumors that he's not healthy enough to play, and there's slight line movement, as the Packers went from being favored by 4.5 to 6. This number might continue to climb near 7, so keep tracking it. Until then, I'll discuss this game as if Jimmy is playing because if Trey Lance is starting, you must wager on the Packers.

The Packers are the rare team getting multiple All-Pros back into the lineup for the playoffs. Left tackle David Baktiharti returned in Week 17 after missing the entire season with a knee injury, and cornerback Jaire Alexander, who has been out since week four. He's off the injured reserve and ready to roll.

The Packers' pass defense was much better the first month of the season with him in the lineup. While not announced at the time of writing this the Packers do expect pass rusher, Za'Darious Smith, back. That's three impact players at the three most important positions outside of quarterback.

Quarterback is the biggest advantage the Packers have in this game. The Niners' offensive and defensive line is good to great. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are fantastic offensive weapons. The 49ers pass defense has only allowed a quarterback to go over their average passing yards per game three times this season. The 49ers have a good squad. The issue is their quarterback. They win games attempting to avoid their quarterback screwing it up for them and the Packers are the exact opposite. This game is just that simple.

Now the number is climbing higher as we speak. If you like the Packers and think Jimmy G isn't playing then wager on them now. I'm going to tease the Packers down to a pick-em and find another game to put them into.

Geoff's Teaser

Packers PK'Em
Bengals

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for AP Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

Download the AP Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!