NFL odds: Why you should bet on the Chiefs and this two-team teaser

Fri, Jan 28, 2022
NFL News (AP)

It's Conference Championship Weekend! This means there are only three games left to bet this NFL season.

The good news is, you nailed the Rams and Chiefs last week if you read this column, so you've got a) extra spending money for a post-football vacation or b) a larger bankroll for the Super Bowl prop market, which has been lucrative to me the last few years.

Let's get to my best bets, with odds courtesy of AP Bet.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (6:30 p.m. ET Sunday, AP)

I loved the Rams last week, as detailed in the column, and it looked like a no-sweat lock until a 4th quarter debacle that nearly cost my kids their college education. Moneyline came through, as did +3.

This week, the confidence level is nowhere the same for one reason: The line. Let's get past the obvious: Kyle Shanahan has owned Sean McVay (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS). The 49ers swept the Rams this season, including a Week 18 comeback on the road from down 17-0. Professional gamblers have gobbled up +3.5 all week, but why hasn't this moved to three? What's preventing the market from moving to 3, especially in a divisional matchup?

I suspect the books are happy to take S.F. money after the 49ers got lucky last week to score 10 points in the final five minutes - a punt block TD being their only time reaching the end zone - and now they must go on the road again. That'll make four straight road games - yes, two of those are short flights down the coast - but more importantly, the team's seventh road game in 9 weeks. That's almost unheard of. Since 2003, when a team plays four straight road games, they are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS. The spot is screaming Rams.

In life and especially sports wagering, you have to be willing to come off a position and change to adapt to the situation. The Rams are built to stop passing teams, and they got Von Miller to team up with Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd to harass the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Josh Allen (and Patrick Mahomes, assuming they got to the Super Bowl). They also have a lockdown corner in Jalen Ramsey and have prioritized the secondary. The 49ers don't attack the outside, and they don't want Jimmy Garoppolo throwing 30 times.

The 49ers are the opposite - a ground-heavy team that uses the middle of the field. Is Rams' DC Raheem Morris willing to change his stripes and defense to slow Kyle Shanahan?

Morris knows Shanahan well. They were together in Washington for two years and in Atlanta for two years. The Rams' defense isn't the reason they lost the first meeting this season, although it did give up two, 90-yard TD drives. The blame here is on Matthew Stafford. He threw an interception on the first series of the game, and the next time he got the ball, it was a pick-six. On the flip side, the 49ers did rush for 156 yards (44 carries!) but only picked up 5.2 yards per play.

In the second meeting, the Niners were in a 17-0 hole and throwing almost exclusively in the second half, so it's troubling that Garoppolo finished with 9.9 yards per attempt, and George Kittle only had five catches for 10 yards.

We know the offenses can be unleashed, but will they? Stafford and Garoppolo are two QBs prone to turnovers. The guess here is that both coaches are mostly conservative after the opening scripted drive. This will be a lower scoring game, with the Rams prevailing by double digits.

I'll either be waiting for a Rams -3 on game day or buy the hook before this one kicks off.

PICK: Rams (-3 at AP Bet) to win by more than 3

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs (3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

One apparent reason I liked the Rams last week was that the Tampa defense loves to blitz (highest rated in the NFL). You know that Stafford eviscerates the blitz if you read this column. Tampa DC Todd Bowles didn't adapt, kept blitzing, and eventually, Staffy hit the game-deciding pass against a cover-zero blitz.

Will we see K.C. defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo adapt? He, too, loves to blitz. Each of the last two years, he's finished in the top nine in blitz percentage. Well, Joe Burrow is a machine against the blitz, going 10-for-10 last week for 192 yards and a touchdown. For the season, he led the NFL in completion percentage under pressure and threw the third-most touchdowns.

There's no chance Spagnuolo blitzes Burrow here and leaves his overmatched cornerbacks on the island again, right? Ja'Marr Chase had 266 yards in the Week 17 victory, and Joey B. is just that good. And, when it comes to betting, he's also been on fire. Burrow is 10-2 ATS as an underdog of three or more points in his young career.

Yes, the young quarterback was sacked nine times last week, but that was offset by the three interceptions Ryan Tannehill tossed. Burrow can succeed, especially if Spagnuolo doesn't change his strategy.

A big game for Burrow leads into my bet: The Chiefs will score, which means Burrow will have to keep up. The Chiefs hung 28 on the Bengals in the first half of the last meeting despite having a kickoff return for a touchdown called back. Sure, they only had three possessions in the second half, but Kansas City's offense dominated, and that was with Travis Kelce coming back off the COVID-19 list and limited to 37 snaps.

Also, having Jerick McKinnon back adds another element to this already potent offense. He had 13 catches all season and didn't play against the Bengals but has 11 catches in two playoff games. If the Bengals play the two-high safety defense that confounded Mahomes early in the season, I expect him to run and utilize Kelce and McKinnon.

I'm not sure the Chiefs will score 42 points for a third straight game, but they'll come close. Market wide, the Chiefs' team total is 31 and rising. Unfortunately, AP Bet doesn't offer 31 or even 31.5, but they do offer 32.5 (at +105),

PICK: Chiefs (team total over 31) to score more than 31 points

Two-team, 6.5-point Teaser at AP Bet

I know it will be the obvious teaser everyone will have in their account this week, but a 6.5-point tease of the Chiefs down to .5 and the 49ers up to +10 makes a lot of sense. You cross through the two keep numbers of 3 and 7 in both games.

If the Bengals stun the world and beat the Chiefs, you tip your cap to January Joe Burrow and probably buy his jersey.

The 49ers are my concern here, as I believe the Rams have a legit chance to finally break through and blow this team out. Getting +10 gets you on the right side of the professional gamblers who have hammered +3.5 all week.

Jason McIntyre is a AP Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for AP Sports. He had a gambling podcast for AP, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at AP, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

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