NFL Week 1 picks, odds, best bets: Eagles cover vs. Lions, Baker Mayfield wins revenge game vs. Browns

Fri, Sep 9, 2022
NFL News (AP)

We are back. So back. #DajaniDimes returns for the fourth year, and I couldn't be more excited for this upcoming NFL season. We didn't have an incredible campaign last year, but did end the 2021 season on a high note. I predicted the Los Angeles Rams would defeat the Cincinnati Bengals by , and that's exactly what happened. That plus-money, same-game parlay with Rams ML and Bengals +3.5 felt great to cash.'

Internally, I wrested whether to write what I'm about to write out of fear I may jinx it. Week 1 in the NFL is kind of my jam. Last year, I went 4-1 ATS on my top five picks and 11-5 ATS overall. Let's see what I can do this time around.'

As always, credit to the AP Sports research team for making me sound smart.'

All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

2021 Top five picks record: 45-45
2021 Overall ATS record: 132-139-1
2021 Straight up record: 171-100-1

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Philadelphia Eagles -4 Bet Now

Detroit is going to be rocking this weekend, as Ford Field is sold out. However, the Eagles were undoubtedly one of the big winners of the NFL offseason. I believe they are a playoff team, but I'm not yet completely sold on quarterback Jalen Hurts, and I want to see if A.J. Brown can be durable. With that said, the Eagles are a much better team than the Lions, and they actually defeated Detroit 44-6 last year.

I'm excited to see how this Eagles offense looks on Sunday compared to how it operated last year. In 2021, Philly was fourth in the NFL in yards per rush (4.9), and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 25. With, dare I say, , what will Nick Sirianni do differently? Everyone will be watching the Eagles offense Sunday, but I also think this defense is underrated. With James Bradberry and Darius Slay locking down wideouts and C.J. Gardner-Johnson roaming the second and third levels, this unit could make life tough on'Jared Goff. Give me the Eagles to cover.

The pick:'Eagles -4
Projected score:'Eagles 30-17

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (PICK)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (AP)

Carolina Panthers PK Bet Now

Could this be the game of the week? Baker Mayfield gets a chance to enact some revenge against the franchise that drafted him No. 1 overall in 2018. I wrote a piece recently on this season, and included the Panthers because it's difficult to put a finger on what their ceiling may be. I don't think they have a shot to win the division, but with an upgrade at quarterback, a better offensive line and some intriguing, young players on both sides of the ball, who knows what can happen?

If we break down Mayfield as a quarterback, one of his greatest strengths is his competitive fire. We saw it carry Oklahoma to numerous wins during his time in college, and I can guarantee you his attitude and how he approaches the game was considered a plus to NFL general managers. Remember what Mayfield did to Kansas when its team captains refused to shake hands with him prior to their matchup in 2017? We could get that Mayfield on Sunday. Sure, he's playing it cool on the outside -- as any smart person would. But I bet he's approaching this matchup like it's the game of his life.'

I locked in Panthers ML at +170 on May 13 due to the looming Deshaun Watson suspension, and I'll stick with it. The Browns haven't won a Week 1 game on the road'since 1994, when head coach Bill Belichick and starting quarterback Vinny Testaverde led them to a win over the Bengals.'

The pick:'Panthers PICK
Projected score:'Panthers 26-20

Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (AP)

Baltimore Ravens -7 Bet Now

Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson is betting on himself this year, and he has everything he needs to find another level of success in 2022. Baltimore's wide receiving corps doesn't look good on paper, but this offense relies on tight end Mark Andrews and the ground game. Keep an eye on rookie tight end Isaiah Likely as well.

Jets quarterback Joe Flacco is starting over the injured Zach Wilson on Sunday, which I don't think is even a massive downgrade -- especially considering Flacco is probably extra juiced to face his former team. Still, New York has lost five of its past six season openers, while Baltimore has won five of its past six season openers.

Listen, I think the Jets did a lot of great things in the offseason and that this franchise is on the right track. However, they still aren't on the same level as the Ravens. I'll lay seven points with John William Harbaugh.'

The pick:'Ravens -7
Projected score:'Ravens 28-17

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (AP)

Miami Dolphins -3.5 Bet Now

I'm buying the Dolphins hype this year. I won't go as far as to say they will win the division, but I can see them winning a wild-card spot. I could talk about the front office bringing in superstar wideout'Tyreek Hill, but I believe the additions Miami made on the offensive line and at running back are just as valuable. New head coach Mike McDaniel appears to be one of the most talented run-schemers in the NFL.

.@MiamiDolphins run game is going to take off and blow up. Timing; footwork; movement; Coach MM knows exactly how it's supposed to look. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/rc2tieBJnz
- Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) August 28, 2022

Some have questions about quarterback'Tua Tagovailoa, but there's something special about him when it comes to facing Belichick. The young signal-caller is 3-0 against Belichick in his career as a starter. With another win, he'd tie John Elway for the most QB wins without a loss against Belichick (including playoffs).

This game is in Miami, there's considerable hype around this new-look team, and on the flip side, there's questions surrounding the Patriots. I'll lay the points.'

The pick:'Dolphins -3.5
Projected score:'Dolphins 26-21

Denver Broncos (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (AP)

Denver Broncos -6.5 Bet Now

I have thought for years now that the Broncos roster has been worthy of contending. They just haven't had good play from the most important position in football since the Peyton Manning days. With the arrival of Russell Wilson, Denver could be a legitimate squad.'

I don't think the Broncos come out and win by 30 points on Monday night. Wilson and first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett probably need some more time to figure each other out before this offense looks like a well-oiled machine consistently, but I do believe this line is too low. I appreciate Pete Carroll putting on the appearance that he's excited for his roster, but I don't think anyone else is.'

The pick:'Broncos -6.5
Projected score:'Broncos 31-23

Other Week 1 picks

Rams (+2.5) 30-27 over Bills
49ers (-7) 30-21 over Bears
Colts 24-23 over Texans (+7)
Jaguars (+2.5) 28-26 over Commanders
Saints (-5.5) 35-23 over Falcons
Bengals 24-21 over Steelers'(+6.5)
Chiefs 31-28 over Cardinals (+6)
Vikings (+1.5) 27-24 over Packers
Chargers (-3) 34-25 over Raiders
Titans (-5.5) 20-13 over Giants
Cowboys (+2.5) 26-24 over Buccaneers