Which Yankees team will show up vs. Brewers? Plus, best football bets for the weekend

Fri, Sep 16, 2022
MLB News (AP)

Which Yankees team will show up vs. Brewers? Plus, best football bets for the weekend

Happy Friday everyone, it's Chris Bengel back to carry you into the weekend. We've made it through another work week and that means one thing: it's football time. It's great that we have a few weeks under our belts when it comes to betting on the pigskin. We've got a bigger sample size, which is always a nice asset to have in our back pocket.

Before we get to the weekend's football picks (including a few college football ones from Tom Fornelli), we've got a baseball wager that has some great value. Let's dive into the picks!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


?? The Hot Ticket

Yankees at Brewers, 8:10 p.m. | TV: MLB Network

Milwaukee Brewers +100 Bet Now
  • Key Trend: The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six home games
  • The Pick: Brewers (+100)

The Yankees have been the definition of inconsistent in the second half of the season. Sometimes you'll get a group that struggles mightily and sometimes you'll see the version that has won four consecutive games, including a two-game sweep of the Red Sox. Still, I'm choosing to fade the Yankees in this closely-contested matchup with the Brewers.

Brewers starter Adrian Houser returned late last month from a forearm injury that had sidelined him since late June. Houser got hit around for five earned in his first start back on Aug. 24 against the Dodgers, but since that start he's has been terrific. The veteran right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 0.67 ERA over his last three appearances (Houser pitched two innings of relief against the Pirates on Aug. 31). Over his last two starts, Houser has allowed just two earned runs on three hits in 11 innings of work.

Meanwhile, Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas has been up-and-down since being traded to New York at the deadline.He has surrendered at least four earned runs in four of his last seven starts, including yielding six runs on two separate occasions. Most recently, Montas gave up four earned runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Rays. In addition, Montas has racked up a 3-4 record to go along with a lofty 5.20 ERA in road starts this season.

I'm banking on Houser continuing to pitch well and Montas to continue his struggles on the road. Take the value with the underdog Brewers.


?? Best NFL pick

Texans at Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 p.m | TV: AP

Denver Broncos -10 Bet Now

The Pick: Broncos -10.0 (-110) -- You might call me crazy for riding with the Broncos after a brutal loss to the Seahawks on Monday night. I just don't see the Broncos playing anywhere close to that bad for a second consecutive week.

Don't get me wrong, the Broncos should've ran away with that game in Week 1. Wilson did still managed to throw for 340 yards and hit Jerry Jeudy for a 67-yard touchdown. Another positive was the fact that Denver got star running back Javonte Williams involved in the passing game at an absurd rate, registering a mind-boggling 11 receptions. I expect Williams to be way more involved in the ground game here against the Texans.

Speaking of, I don't think many handicappers expected the Texans to give the Colts a tough test, let alone end up tying them. After all, Houston struggled with the run the game as they averaged just 2.8 yards-per-carry. Dameon Pierce was the darling of the preseason, but only managed to tally 33 rushing yards on 11 caries. To make matters worse, the Broncos held the Seahawks to just 76 yards on the ground, which was the seventh-lowest total in Week 1. If the rushing attack isn't working, the Broncos will be daring quarterback Davis Mills to beat them. I believe that should lead to a few turnovers and the Broncos will cover the double-digit number.

Key Trend: The Texans are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a ATS win

??

No. 22 Penn State at Auburn, Saturday, 3:30 p.m | TV: AP

Auburn Tigers +2.5 Bet Now

The Pick: Auburn +3.0 (-110) --'In Week 1,'Utah'traveled to Gainesville to take on'Florida'as road favorites. We picked Florida as our Upset of the Week in The Six Pack for a simple reason: you should probably bet the SEC team whenever you can get it as a home underdog in a nonconference game. History suggests the conference has done pretty well in nonconference games. Well, not surprisingly, Florida beat Utah, and now here we are two weeks later with Penn State traveling to Auburn as a 3-point favorite.

To be clear, I do not think Penn State is as good as Utah, nor do I believe Auburn is as good as Florida. That doesn't mean I'm willing to trust a Penn State team that looked shaky in a road game against'Purdue'in Week 0 to have an easy time at Jordan-Hare. I don't see either of these teams being able to pull too far away from the other, so give me the Auburn and the points.

Key Trend: Penn State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against the SEC

Nevada at Iowa, Saturday, 7:30 p.m | TV: BTN

Under 39.5 Bet Now

The Pick: Under 39 (-110) --'Should we blindly bet Iowa unders until proven otherwise? I think so! I already mentioned how terrible Iowa has been, but to drive the point home with fancy numbers, the Hawkeyes offense ranks 130th (of 131) in success rate, 131st in points per possession, 131st in EPA per play, and 1,000,000th in vibes. That said, I expect it to play better this week, but only because Nevada isn't some stalwart defensively. Though, who knows? Maybe playing Iowa will fix Nevada's defensive numbers.

Anyway, the reason I like this under isn't just that Iowa's offense is awful. Nevada's offense is awful, too, and it's going against an Iowa defense that is still quite good. All those fancy stats I mentioned with the Iowa offense? Nevada doesn't rank much better in any of them, and the good parts all stem from last week's 41 points against'Incarnate Word'(which scored 55, by the way).

Key Trend: The under is 6-0 in the Hawkeyes' last six non-conference games

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