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Handicapper Bio

My model uses a handful of specialized variables for SEC conference football games to predict MOV. Using regression for these variables over the course of the 2012 to 2014 seasons, my model beat Vegas sportsbooks 63% back testing over the course of the 2007 to 2011 seasons. My model also beat the sportsbooks 83% of the time when it predicted a MOV over 7 points different than that of the Vegas sportsbooks. The sample size of the 83% winrrate games averaged out to be 10.3 games a season. So far this season, my model is 4 - 1 in games differing from Vegas by more than 7 points. All of my picks will be the games within the 83% winrate criteria. 

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