Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Pick Center

NBA picks, best bets: Lean on Heat, Suns to prevail Thursday and advance to conference finals

Thu, May 12, 2022
NBA News (AP)

With the 2021-22'NBA'regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. AP Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Moneyline Spread Total PHI -135 BET NOW -2 -110 BET NOW o206.5 -110 BET NOW MIA +115 BET NOW +2 -110 BET NOW u206.5 -110 BET NOW

I hate to oversimplify, but so much of this series has come down to shooting variance. The Sixers shot 6 of 34 and 8 of 30 from 3-point range in the first two games, and they predictably lost. The Heat shot 7 of 30 and 7 of 35 in the next two and lost both. Game 5 was the closest thing to shooting balance we've really seen thus far and the Heat were roughly 11 percentage points better than the Sixers. The truth of this series is that either team could just get hot and steal the next game or two, but with Joel Embiid still not close to 100 percent and James Harden proving his Game 4 breakout was more of an exception than a rule in Game 5, it's probably safer to just lean on the No. 1 seed with the points and assume that in a more typical game, Jimmy Butler can continue to be the best player in the series and carry the Heat over the top. The pick: Heat +2

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Moneyline Spread Total DAL +110 BET NOW +2 -110 BET NOW o211.5 -110 BET NOW PHO -130 BET NOW -2 -110 BET NOW u211.5 -110 BET NOW

Hey, speaking of outliers, Chris Paul didn't foul out or commit six turnovers in a half. Turns out, when those things don't happen, the best team in the NBA can relatively comfortably handle a No. 4 seed. We now have three games of evidence supporting that fact. If you want to bet on more weird things happening in Dallas, be my guest, but I'm taking Phoenix's 64-18 track record with the assumption that we're not going to get anymore outrageous outliers like we got in Games 3 and 4. The pick: Suns -2

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