Dan's UFC Fight Night 60 Recap
What a great main event! We both had Benson before the weighins, but after seeing the size difference and considering all the factors going into this matchup we weren't recommending any units on this one. I had thought Benson's best chance was outside of round 1 where Thatch was at his best. I had also figured Henderson wasn't letting this go to the score cards considering his last 3 decision bouts were very controversial.
But we can't catch a break on these OVER/UNDERS. Sure we've lost 3 straight events now, but looking at the plays it basically came down to an OVER or UNDER wager. We thought this was over last November when an unlucky turn of events costed us 3.8 (investment + profit) units and profit on the night at UFC 180 when Werdum TKO'd Hunt just 3 seconds before our OVER play would've cashed.
The last couple weeks have stunk with UFC on FOX 14 and UFC 183 main events not working out in our favor on OVER/UNDERS. We are extremely humble in defeat, but it really leaves a salty taste when you think you have it secured and don't. Last October, Chris Kelades was a massive underdog that cost us over 8 (investment + profit) units with his submission defense, surviving and cranking out the upset against Patrick Holohan. We didn't want to count him out this time so instead of going large on Borg to finish at -155, we took the UNDER 2.5 Rounds at -150 securing the chance that Kelades could pull out a finish himself.
Turns out Kelades had himself in some tough chokes again and survived multiple attempts. Borg finally finished him with a kimura (not a choke) but it was more than 26 seconds too late. Once again Kelades sub defense cost us over 7 units (investment + profit). In his 2 UFC fights, his defense alone has cost us 16.11 units (investment + profit). I don't know who he is matched up with next, but it might be best for us to leave that bout alone with no action.
We've had some good nights and bad nights for profit over the last year but every time I watch Kevin Lee fight, I can't help but think of his UFC debut last February against Al Iaquinta. We had a profitable night on that card, but his loss did cost us over 20 units we should've won (investment + profit). Lee had a bad first round but in the second he had Iaquinta literally foaming at the mouth securing a choke. Iaquinta went on to defeat Lee that night in what could've been our most profitable card to date. To make it even more disappointing, Iaquinta went on to lose to Mitch Clarke in a fight he was winning, and nearly lost to Rodrigo Damm at the end of another victorious night.
I guess what I am getting at is "It is hard to not look back and wonder what if." To most these may seem like excuses and rants, but I think of them more as reasoning or blowing off steam. We will be back strong again next week, and to those of you who purchased last night's card you are getting picks for UFC Fight Night 61 free as per our terms.