NFL WEEK 13 THURSDAY THANKSGIVING NIGHT DOLPHINS AT PACKERS SCORE PREDICTION

Sat, Nov 23, 2024
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

NFL Week 13: Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers

Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. EST | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

Defensive and Offensive Profiles

Miami Dolphins:

  • Defense: This unit has been inconsistent, allowing as many as 46 points and as few as 11 points against comparable teams.
  • Offense: The Dolphins’ scoring output varies, with a high mark of 32 points but a low of 11 points when facing similar defenses.

Green Bay Packers:

  • Defense: A relatively steady unit, allowing between 12 and 26 points against similar teams.
  • Offense: The Packers can score as many as 28 points, though they’ve been held to 12 points in some matchups.

Predicted Score Based on Metrics

Based on these values, the baseline score prediction is:
Miami Dolphins 20 - 24 Green Bay Packers.

Both teams are expected to rely on their running games, with each likely feeding their starting running back 22 or more carries to control the tempo.

Adjustments for Scoring Trends and Las Vegas Line

After factoring in team performance trends, scoring tendencies, and the Las Vegas line, the prediction adjusts slightly:
Miami Dolphins 24 - 25 Green Bay Packers.

Las Vegas lists the Packers as 3.5-point favorites, with the over-under set at 47 points.

Key Matchups and Game Dynamics

  • Quarterback Showdown:
    The Dolphins are led by Tua Tagovailoa, who has the talent to exploit the Packers’ secondary but must avoid turnovers in a hostile environment. Meanwhile, Jordan Love has been steadily improving, utilizing the Packers’ efficient run game and short-yardage passing to stay competitive.

  • Running Game Emphasis:
    Both teams will rely heavily on their ground attacks, aiming to set up manageable third downs and control the clock. The Dolphins’ running back, known for explosive plays, contrasts with the Packers’ more methodical and powerful rushing approach. Expect each starting running back to handle at least 22 carries.

  • Coaching Edge:
    Green Bay holds a slight edge in coaching, particularly in adjusting game plans to exploit defensive weaknesses. The Dolphins’ staff has been creative offensively, but their defensive adjustments have lagged at times this season.

Betting Insight

The 3.5-point spread favors the Packers, reflecting the home-field advantage and their consistent defensive performances. The over-under of 47 points aligns with the adjusted prediction, which anticipates both teams moving the ball but not lighting up the scoreboard. Bettors might look at the over if they expect Tua’s passing game to take off.

Final Analysis

This game could come down to execution in the red zone, as both teams rely on their running backs and limit risks through the air. The Packers’ home-field advantage and ability to make timely defensive stops give them a razor-thin edge in what should be a closely contested game.

Final Prediction: Green Bay Packers 25, Miami Dolphins 24


JP