"Profit is made on the buy, not the sale" The QB Card Value System

Mon, Mar 24, 2025
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

The QB Card Value System — A Collector’s Guide to Point-Based Quarterback Grading and Pre-Draft Goldmines

"Profit is made on the buy, not the sale."

written by Jorge M. Perez Jr.

As of March 2025, the 2024 college football season is in the books and the NFL Draft is around the corner. This guide breaks down the undervalued quarterbacks in the hobby using a point-based QB grading system that predicts how many points a QB adds to the scoreboard at their best. The grading system shows who's worth investing in before prices explode.

Section 1: How the System Works

  • QBs are graded by how many points they add when playing at their best.

  • NFL transition cuts that value in half.

  • A "4" is the minimum needed to survive in the NFL.

  • Used to take an "8" to win playoff games. Now a "6" will get you there.

  • Some QBs recover value after the NFL drop (like Josh Allen), some don’t (like Trevor Lawrence).

Quick Value Reference:

  • 8.5 = Elite college QB

  • 4.25 = Viable NFL rookie starter

  • 1.5 = Daniel Jones (yes, really)

  • 4 = Goff, Cousins (average starter)

  • 6.5 = Hurts, Tua (above average)

  • 8 = Mahomes / Allen type potential if developed right

Section 2: Undervalued QB Profiles

🔥 Conner Weigman (Texas A&M)

  • College Value: 8

  • NFL Projection: 4

  • Card Price: No cards available

  • Verdict: Big arm, strong frame, and advanced timing — Weigman has the tools to rise fast. With no cards in circulation, he’s an ultra-sleeper waiting to explode in both the draft and the hobby. If he puts together a healthy 2025 season, he could go from unknown to priority pick in one year.

🔥 Mitch Griffis (Texas Tech)

  • College Value: 8

  • NFL Projection: 4

  • Card Price: No cards available yet = ultra sleeper

  • Verdict: May win Texas Tech’s job under OC Mack Leftwich in a high-tempo offense. Buy early before the market even knows he exists.

🚀 Will Rogers (NFL Draft 2025)

  • College Value: 8

  • NFL Projection: 4

  • Card Price: <$2 raw autos, PSA 9s selling at a discount (~$40)

  • Verdict: Smart, efficient, proven. He’ll be a Day 2/3 pick but plays like a vet. Buy now.

🔊 Jeff Sims (Arizona State)

  • College Value: 8

  • NFL Projection: 4

  • Card Price: ~$2 for signed/numbered cards plus shipping

  • Verdict: Huge athletic upside, and the price is absurdly low. The hobby forgot about him — take advantage.

✨ Drew Pyne

  • College Value: 8.5

  • NFL Projection: 4.25+

  • Card Price: ~$5 for auto/numbered (with free shipping!)

  • Verdict: The most undervalued QB in the hobby. Efficient, poised, and graded higher than anyone else on this list. Must-buy.

💜 AJ Swann (LSU)

  • College Value: 8

  • NFL Projection: 4

  • Card Price: $5 + $1.25 shipping = $6.25 total

  • Verdict: Beautiful cards, pro-ready arm, and under-the-radar SEC transfer. Looks good and plays clean.

🚀 Jayden Rashada (Arizona State)

  • College Value: 8.5

  • NFL Projection: 4.25+ with elite upside

  • Card Price: ~$5 for auto/numbered, PSA 9s for $40 (under market)

  • Verdict: Huge ceiling, crazy cheap cards, and hasn’t even had good coaching yet. The one you’ll wish you bought more of.

🏁 Dillon Gabriel (Oregon)

  • College Value: 8.5

  • NFL Projection: 4.25+

  • Card Price: $4–$100 depending on seller — prices spiking fast

  • Verdict: One of the most polished passers in college. Small frame (Kyler Murray size), but big arm. Market waking up. Last call before lift-off.

⚠️ Brady Cook (Missouri)

  • College Value: 7

  • NFL Projection: 3.5

  • Card Price: $12+ for any auto/numbered

  • Verdict: Overpriced. Solid backup with a winner's aura and fanbase hype, but you’re paying starter prices.

😮 Funny but True:

👀 Why Good-Looking QBs Cost More Than They Should

Brady Cook looks like he stars in a Netflix docuseries called "QB1: Mizzou Magic" — and collectors eat that up.

  • Great hair? +$4.

  • Smiles in his autograph pose? +$3.

  • Went 11-2 looking like your sister’s dream prom date? +$5.

Meanwhile, Jeff Sims looks like he’s about to run over a linebacker, and his numbered/signed card is $4 shipped.

Lesson: Never underestimate the "pretty tax." It’s real. And it’s inflating eBay.

🔼 Value Climbers: The Rare QBs Who Rise After College

Most QBs lose value when they go pro. It’s expected. The NFL is faster, tougher, and less forgiving. But every now and then, a quarterback gains value after leaving college. These are the rare ones:

Sam Hartman

  • College Value: 8

  • NFL Projection: 4 (starter-level)

  • Status: Undrafted, sitting behind Jayden Daniels in Washington

  • Note: Still a high-upside option. Should not be written off.

Michael Pratt

  • College Value: 8

  • NFL Projection: 4

  • Status: Drafted in late rounds

  • Note: Solid prospect who went overlooked. Smart teams will develop him.

Jack Plummer

  • College Value: 6

  • NFL Projection: 3

  • Status: Signed as free agent

  • Note: Needs development, but in the right system, could become the Panthers starter over Bryce Young.

Jayden Daniels

  • College Value: 2.5

  • NFL Rookie Year Peak: Hit a 6 in flashes

  • Settled Value: 4

  • Verdict: Gained 1.5+ points after entering the league. That’s why he started over Hartman. Rare case of post-college growth.

Brock Purdy

  • College Value: Low-to-mid 4

  • NFL Growth: Jumped to a 6+ in Shanahan's system

  • Verdict: Outlier case. Made the leap few do. Now a top-tier system fit.

These value climbers are extremely rare. Most QBs do not outperform their college grade. When they do, it’s usually because of a perfect system fit, incredible coaching, or an elite-level mental edge.

Tier 6 QBs — On the Edge of Greatness or Backup Life

These quarterbacks ride the line between average and elite — and your scouting eye has to determine: are they rising toward an 8, or sliding down toward a 4?

🧱 DJ Uiagalelei

  • College Value: 6

  • NFL Projection: 3

  • Upside: Big arm, big frame, and a strong foundation that could still develop with the right coaching.

  • Downside: If he doesn’t speed up his decision-making, he risks being passed up by quicker processors.

  • Card Price: Typically $5–$10 for autos and numbered cards

  • Verdict: You love him at 6. If he gets into a system that believes in him and lets him settle, DJU could quietly climb toward a 4.5+ and make a case as a long-term NFL starter.

🔹 Mikey Keene

  • College Value: 6

  • NFL Projection: 3

  • Upside: Clean footwork, fast processor, and one of the sharpest rhythm passers in his class. Could thrive in a system like the Rams, 49ers, or Vikings.

  • Downside: Smaller frame and limited deep-ball velocity may cap his ceiling in certain schemes.

  • Card Price: Can win numbered autos for ~$5 on eBay, shipping averages $4.75. Some basic signed cards land at $10, but there's a steep jump to $25+ from there.

  • Verdict: Total sleeper. If he sneaks into the league and gets a shot in a timing-heavy offense, he could be this year’s “How is this guy still starting?” surprise.

💪 TJ Finley

  • College Value: 6

  • NFL Projection: 3

  • Upside: Massive frame and a cannon for an arm. His decision-making is ahead of most 6s, which gives him a serious edge if he can clean up the accuracy.

  • Downside: Accuracy inconsistency has limited his ceiling so far, but it’s fixable with pro coaching.

  • Card Price: Rare in the hobby — limited autos and numbered cards exist, typically in the $6–12 range.

  • Verdict: You want the Colts to draft this guy — and it’s easy to see why. If he lands with a team that invests in his mechanics, he could be the most underrated 6 in the class.

I'll keep tweeting Jim Irsay to draft him — and for good reason. Even at a projected NFL value of 3, he would offer twice the QB value of Daniel Jones (1.5). That’s the kind of upside the Colts should be chasing.

⚡ Thomas Castellanos

  • College Value: 6

  • NFL Projection: 3

  • Upside: Electric athlete with rare movement skills for the position. If he develops better control and field vision, he could become a dual-threat weapon at the next level.

  • Downside: Still raw as a passer — mechanics can get loose, and decision-making needs refinement.

  • Card Price: Still flying under the radar — autos and numbered cards typically range $5–10, but inventory is limited.

  • Verdict: He’s the kind of QB that makes a front office dream big. You don’t want to be late if he puts it all together. Sneaky stash.

🎯 Sam Huard

  • College Value: 6

  • NFL Projection: 3

  • Upside: Former 5-star recruit with elite pedigree and footwork. Clean release and strong understanding of timing-based concepts. If he regains confidence and stays healthy, there’s still real NFL starter potential here.

  • Downside: Transferred to Cal Poly after a rocky start at Washington. Needs to prove he can dominate at any level.

  • Card Price: Quiet market — limited autos around $3–7, often overlooked.

  • Verdict: Don’t let the small-school transfer fool you. The tools are still there. Great long-term hold if he rebounds.

🧠 Payton Thorne

  • College Value: 6

  • NFL Projection: 3

  • Upside: High football IQ and shows flashes of being a coach-on-the-field type. Can run an offense efficiently when everything is clean.

  • Downside: Struggles under pressure, and his arm talent may limit explosive upside at the next level.

  • Card Price: Modest — most autos fall in the $4–8 range, sometimes cheaper due to low demand.

  • Verdict: Not flashy, but smart. He’s the type of QB who could hang around the league longer than expected if he finds the right fit. Worth a stash at low cost.

This guide isn’t just about cards — it’s about understanding value before the rest of the world catches on. Whether you’re a collector, a fan, or a scout in disguise, the quarterbacks listed here are more than stats and highlights — they’re market inefficiencies waiting to be bought low.

Trust the grades. Trust the math. And always remember:

“Profit is made on the buy, not the sale.”