Super Bowl 59 Breakdown: SCORE PREDICTION. Can the Eagles Crack the Chiefs' Defensive Code?

Sun, Feb 2, 2025
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

We can break down the data into key factors to determine which team might perform above or below expectations, the average output that is expected and what the history shows these teams to be capable of when facing similar offenses and defenses. 

Scoring Potential Based on Similar Matchups

  • Chiefs Offense vs. Eagles Defense

    • Chiefs have scored between 18-23 points against similar defenses.
    • Closest comparison: Texans' defense → Chiefs scored 23 and 27 points (Avg: 25).
    • Eagles defense allows 2-22 points vs. similar offenses.
    • Closest comparison: Panthers’ defense → Eagles allowed 22 points.

    Prediction Range: Chiefs offense likely scores between 18-25 points.

  • Eagles Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

    • Eagles have scored 22 points against similar defenses (Panthers).
    • Chiefs' defense has allowed 6-18 points vs. similar offenses.
    • Closest comparisons: Steelers (10) and Panthers (27) → Avg: 18.5.

    Prediction Range: Eagles offense likely scores between 17-22 points.

Over/Under & Vegas Line

  • Vegas has the Chiefs as a 1.5-point favorite.
  • Over/Under at 48.5 is significantly higher than the expected average score of 17-16.
  • Implied Vegas score: Chiefs 24-23 Eagles (higher than data trends).
  • Expected Average Score Prediction: PHI 17 - 16 KC (this is based on averages)

Which Team Performs Above Average?

  • Chiefs Offense:

    • Chiefs scored 23+ in 2/2 games vs. Texans (comparable defense).
    • If they replicate that, they could push to 24-27 points, surpassing expectations.
  • Eagles Offense:

    • Eagles' scoring range is 17-22 points vs. similar defenses.
    • Chiefs’ defense has consistently held similar teams under 20 points.
    • Eagles will need a top-tier performance from Hurts to break 22 points.

Which Team Struggles?

  • Eagles Offense might struggle to exceed 22 points, especially if the Chiefs' defense plays at its best (6-18 points allowed vs. similar teams).
  • Chiefs Defense has allowed a high of 18 points against comparable offenses, which could suggest an Eagles output lower than their usual 22.

Final Prediction

  • Chiefs 24, Eagles 17
  • Chiefs slightly outperform expectations on offense, while the Eagles struggle against the Chiefs’ defense.
  • Under 48.5 hits unless there’s an outlier performance.

If Mahomes is sharp and KC’s defense holds up, the Chiefs should cover and win. The Eagles need to outperform their offensive averages to keep pace.


JP