WILD CARD ROUND: STEELERS AT RAVENS. SCORE PREDICTION. GAME ANALYSIS.

Fri, Jan 10, 2025
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

Game Overview: Steelers @ Ravens

Spread: Ravens -9.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Expected Score Prediction: Ravens 29, Steelers 20

A classic AFC North rivalry takes center stage in the Wild Card round as the Steelers, led by veteran Russell Wilson, travel to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Steelers are set to deploy a passing-focused game plan, with the run game serving as a complement to their aerial attack, while the Ravens use their running game and Derrick Henry to pound the Steelers into submission. It's probable Derrick Henry gets 22+ carries.

Steelers: Battling as Underdogs

The Steelers' defense has been a mixed bag this season, allowing a wide range of scoring outcomes (11-44 points) against similar offenses. For Pittsburgh to keep this game competitive, Wilson will need to maximize scoring opportunities and avoid costly mistakes. The Steelers' offense has shown some ability to exceed expectations, outperforming their scoring average 7-9 times, but they’ll face a Ravens defense that, while vulnerable, is tough to exploit consistently.

Key Stats:

Steelers Defense:
- Allows 11-44 points against comparable offenses.
- Has allowed opposing offenses to exceed expectations 6 times, but they’ve limited damage in key moments.
Steelers Offense:
- Scores 13-31 points against similar defenses.
- Has exceeded expected scoring averages 7-9 times. 2 games by 1 point over expected.

X-Factor:

Russell Wilson’s ability to exploit a Ravens defense that has allowed opponents to exceed scoring expectations 10 times this season. If Wilson can capitalize on Baltimore’s occasional lapses, the Steelers could make this closer than expected.

Ravens: Poised and Explosive

The Ravens are heavy favorites for a reason. Lamar Jackson has led an offense capable of scoring in bunches, with performances ranging from 18-43 points against comparable defenses. Baltimore’s defense, despite its high overall quality, has shown susceptibility, allowing opponents to exceed expectations 10 times this season. With one defensive starter sidelined due to injury, the Ravens will lean heavily on their offense to dictate the game.

Key Stats:

Ravens Defense:
- Allows 17-28 points against similar offenses.
- Opponents have exceeded scoring expectations 10 times, often in closer-than-expected games.
Ravens Offense:
- Scores 18-43 points against comparable defenses.
- Has exceeded scoring expectations 9 times, with Jackson driving the attack.

X-Factor:

Lamar Jackson’s dual-threat ability to punish the Steelers' defense through the air and on the ground. His ability to extend plays and create explosive opportunities could be the deciding factor.

Analysis and Betting Angle

Spread (-9.5 Ravens): The Ravens are rightfully favored, but the large spread could leave the door open for a Steelers cover, especially if Wilson can find success through the air.
Over/Under (43.5): Both offenses have scoring potential, but with disciplined defenses and a focus on passing setups, the over feels like the stronger play.

Prediction:

Final Score: Ravens 30, Steelers 20
Best Bet: Over 43.5
Leaning: Steelers +9.5

The Ravens' explosive offense and Lamar Jackson’s leadership give them the edge, but the Steelers’ offense, led by Wilson, has enough firepower to keep the game closer than the spread suggests. This AFC North clash should be a high-energy, high-scoring affair that ultimately sees the Ravens advance to the next round.