2018 Triple Trend Formula (MLB) Explained
Posted: Wednesday, March 28, 2018 by   |   View Picks   |   Read Reviews

Properly handicapping Major League Baseball can be a very complex task.  One can become overwhelmed trying to analyze all of the statistical data that is readily available these days.  Some questions we ask ourselves when handicapping are; Which data should I use? How do I use it?  How do I factor the line offered by my bookmaker?  How much should I wager on a particular game? These are all questions that I have spent many hours pondering, studying and working on.  Ultimately,  I have identified what I feel are the three most relevant statistics, or metrics, to use in MLB handicapping.  Using these three stats, I have developed a formula called the Triple Trend Formula (TTF), which results in a numerical rating for each matchup that can be used to determine the likelihood of a particular outcome.

The 2018 version of the TTF has once again evolved from the previous season with a few adjustments as I prepare for another successful summer of MLB betting.

The team with the highest TTF rating is deemed the "favorite".  The rating determines the probability of the favorite winning the game and I'll explain further below.   Therefore, it will also help you determine the number of units to wager, or whether to even bet at all, after you review the TTF relative to your bookmaker's line.

Since the Triple Trend Formula is proprietary, I won't divulge the specifics, but I can tell you in general terms that the three statistics used are taken from the following categories:

  1. Starting pitcher
  2. Team relief pitching
  3. Team batting

To help you better understand, let's look at an example: I'm interested in a Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup.  My bookmaker is offering odds of NYY -195 and BOS +165.  These odds assume that the Yankees have a *66.10% chance of winning and the Red Sox *37.74%.  Of course, this adds up to more than 100%, but bookmakers create markets that go above 100% to create an edge, which is where the bookmaker makes its money.

*Standard odds conversion for win probability

OK, but what does the TTF say?

The TTF calculates this matchup as NYY the favorite with a +3.59 rating.

Great, but what does that tell me?

The answer to this can be found in the chart below which shows how to convert the TTF rating of a matchup into a general win probability% and what the corresponding bookmaker odds should be.

TTF rating                                   Win probability%                         Bookmaker odds

+0.001 - +1.000                          52.5%                                            -111

+1.001 - +1.500                          55.75%                                          -126

+1.501 - +2.000                           58.5%                                           -141

+2.001 - +2.500                           60.0%                                           -150

+2.501 - +3.000                           62.75%                                         -168

+3.001 - +3.500                           65.0%                                           -186

+3.501 - +4.000                           67.75%                                         -210

+4.001 - +4.500                           70.0%                                           -233

+4.501 - +5.000                           72.5%                                           -264

+5.001 and up                             75.0% and up                              -300 and higher

What we're looking for is an advantage that we can exploit.  Specifically, a situation where there's a significant difference between the TTF's win probability% and that of the bookmaker's line win probability%.

Getting back to our example matchup relative to the chart, we now see that the Yankees have roughly a 67.75% chance of winning per the TTF given the range that the +3.59 rating falls into.  You'll also see that a reasonable corresponding line would be -210.

Since the bookmaker's -195 line has NYY with a 66.10% chance of winning, we're not going to bet this game since the 1.65% differential is not enough to give us the decided advantage relative to line offered by the bookmaker that we're looking for.

The type of advantage that we would be looking for is something along the lines of either a higher TTF rating, say a +5.15, or a more favorable bookmaker odds of something like -150.  In either case, we would recommend a wager with a suitable number of units (I use a 1-3 scale).

It's important to understand that the TTF formula is essentially what Vegas and the offshore bookmakers use to set their initial line, but the difference is that they then have to factor in the public sentiment, or bias.  After that, the money wagered on each side is what will move the line one way or the other.  A sharp bettor ignores the public sentiment in his handicapping, but, he'll use it to determine betting value relative to his handicapping.

The objective of the TTF is to provide you with an unbiased matchup rating.

Have a great 2018 MLB season, players!

Mixed Martial Arts
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