BLOG
WINNIBET.COM
2018 Triple Trend Formula (MLB) Explained
Posted: Wednesday, March 28, 2018 by WinniBet.com   |   View Picks   |   Read Reviews

Properly handicapping Major League Baseball can be a very complex task.  One can become overwhelmed trying to analyze all of the statistical data that is readily available these days.  Some questions we ask ourselves when handicapping are; Which data should I use? How do I use it?  How do I factor the line offered by my bookmaker?  How much should I wager on a particular game? These are all questions that I have spent many hours pondering, studying and working on.  Ultimately,  I have identified what I feel are the three most relevant statistics, or metrics, to use in MLB handicapping.  Using these three stats, I have developed a formula called the Triple Trend Formula (TTF), which results in a numerical rating for each matchup that can be used to determine the likelihood of a particular outcome.

The 2018 version of the TTF has once again evolved from the previous season with a few adjustments as I prepare for another successful summer of MLB betting.

The team with the highest TTF rating is deemed the "favorite".  The rating determines the probability of the favorite winning the game and I'll explain further below.   Therefore, it will also help you determine the number of units to wager, or whether to even bet at all, after you review the TTF relative to your bookmaker's line.

Since the Triple Trend Formula is proprietary, I won't divulge the specifics, but I can tell you in general terms that the three statistics used are taken from the following categories:

  1. Starting pitcher
  2. Team relief pitching
  3. Team batting

To help you better understand, let's look at an example: I'm interested in a Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup.  My bookmaker is offering odds of NYY -195 and BOS +165.  These odds assume that the Yankees have a *66.10% chance of winning and the Red Sox *37.74%.  Of course, this adds up to more than 100%, but bookmakers create markets that go above 100% to create an edge, which is where the bookmaker makes its money.

*Standard odds conversion for win probability

OK, but what does the TTF say?

The TTF calculates this matchup as NYY the favorite with a +3.59 rating.

Great, but what does that tell me?

The answer to this can be found in the chart below which shows how to convert the TTF rating of a matchup into a general win probability% and what the corresponding bookmaker odds should be.

TTF rating                                   Win probability%                         Bookmaker odds

+0.001 - +1.000                          52.5%                                            -111

+1.001 - +1.500                          55.75%                                          -126

+1.501 - +2.000                           58.5%                                           -141

+2.001 - +2.500                           60.0%                                           -150

+2.501 - +3.000                           62.75%                                         -168

+3.001 - +3.500                           65.0%                                           -186

+3.501 - +4.000                           67.75%                                         -210

+4.001 - +4.500                           70.0%                                           -233

+4.501 - +5.000                           72.5%                                           -264

+5.001 and up                             75.0% and up                              -300 and higher

What we're looking for is an advantage that we can exploit.  Specifically, a situation where there's a significant difference between the TTF's win probability% and that of the bookmaker's line win probability%.

Getting back to our example matchup relative to the chart, we now see that the Yankees have roughly a 67.75% chance of winning per the TTF given the range that the +3.59 rating falls into.  You'll also see that a reasonable corresponding line would be -210.

Since the bookmaker's -195 line has NYY with a 66.10% chance of winning, we're not going to bet this game since the 1.65% differential is not enough to give us the decided advantage relative to line offered by the bookmaker that we're looking for.

The type of advantage that we would be looking for is something along the lines of either a higher TTF rating, say a +5.15, or a more favorable bookmaker odds of something like -150.  In either case, we would recommend a wager with a suitable number of units (I use a 1-3 scale).

It's important to understand that the TTF formula is essentially what Vegas and the offshore bookmakers use to set their initial line, but the difference is that they then have to factor in the public sentiment, or bias.  After that, the money wagered on each side is what will move the line one way or the other.  A sharp bettor ignores the public sentiment in his handicapping, but, he'll use it to determine betting value relative to his handicapping.

The objective of the TTF is to provide you with an unbiased matchup rating.

Have a great 2018 MLB season, players!

Football
Basketball
Baseball
Hockey
Soccer
Mixed Martial Arts
NFL Picks NBA Picks MLB Picks NHL Picks Soccer Picks MMA Picks
NFL Odds NBA Odds MLB Odds NHL Odds Soccer Odds MMA Odds
NFL Lines NBA Lines MLB Lines NHL Lines Soccer Lines MMA Lines
NFL Spreads NBA Spreads MLB Spreads NHL Spreads Soccer Spreads MMA Spreads
NFL Betting Advice NBA Betting Advice MLB Betting Advice NHL Betting Advice Soccer Betting Lines MMA Betting Lines
NFL Betting Trends NBA Betting Trends MLB Betting Trends NHL Betting Trends Soccer Betting Advice MMA Betting Advice
NFL Betting Consensus NBA Betting Consensus MLB Betting Consensus NHL Betting Consensus Soccer Betting Trends MMA Betting Trends
NFL Las Vegas Odds NBA Las Vegas Odds MLB Las Vegas Odds NHL Las Vegas Odds Soccer Las Vegas Odds MMA Las Vegas Odds
NFL Game Simulator NBA Game Simulator MLB Game Simulator NHL Game Simulator Soccer Las Vegas Lines MMA Las Vegas Lines
NFL Scores NBA Scores MLB Scores NHL Scores Soccer Handicappers MMA Fight Analysis
College Football Picks College Basketball Picks Baseball Betting Picks Hockey Betting Picks Soccer Tipsters MMA Fight Tips
College Football Odds College Basketball Odds Baseball Odds Hockey Odds Soccer Results MMA Predictions
College Football Lines College Basketball Lines Baseball Lines Hockey Lines Soccer Tips UFC Fight Picks
College Football Spreads College Basketball Spreads Baseball Spreads Hockey Spreads Soccer Predictions UFC Fight Odds
College Football Betting Lines College Basketball Betting Lines Baseball Betting Lines Hockey Betting Lines Soccer Stats UFC Predictions
College Football Betting Advice College Basketball Betting Advice Baseball Betting Advice Hockey Betting Advice Soccer Analysis UFC Matchups
College Football Betting Trends College Basketball Betting Trends Baseball Betting Trends Hockey Betting Trends Soccer Matchups UFC Betting Tips
College Football Betting Consensus College Basketball Betting Consensus Baseball Betting Consensus Hockey Betting Consensus Soccer Fixtures UFC Betting Advice
College Football Game Simulator College Basketball Game Simulator Baseball Game Simulator Hockey Game Simulator Soccer Betting Picks UFC Fight Analysis
College Football Scores College Basketball Scores Baseball Scores Hockey Scores Soccer Scores UFC Betting Trends
Server Status: All Systems Operational | | | | | | | | |
Server Time: EST (10/22/2018) | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Your IP Address: 54.161.116.225 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Home   :   Directory   :   Leaderboard   :   Access Picks   :   My Account   :   About Us Copyright © 2013 - 2018 CapperTek, All Rights Reserved.
Affiliate Program   :   Technology   :   Marketing   :   News / Blogs   :   Handicapper Blogs   :   FAQ Betting Trends   :   Game Simulator   :   Game Capsensus
Free Widgets / Betting Tools   :   YSLD   :   XML Site Map   :   HTML Site Map   :   100% SSL Secure Website Contact Us   :   Terms of Service   :   Privacy Policy
CapperTek Blogs / Links CapperTek Facebook CapperTek Twitter CapperTek Google+ CapperTek Blog CapperTek Tumblr CapperTek YouTube CapperTek Google Search Results CapperTek Bing Search Results CapperTek Yahoo! Search Results CapperTek Ask Search Results CapperTek Alexa Rank CapperTek is 100% SSL Secure!
CapperTek - Sports Handicapping Service Directory - Buy, Sell, and Track Documented and Transparent Sports Picks
PLEASE NOTE: CapperTek is not a gambling or sports betting website and does not accept or place wagers of any type. CapperTek does not endorse or encourage illegal gambling or sports betting of any type. Also note sports betting inherently involves financial risk. CapperTek assumes no responsibly for the loss of capital incurred due to the use of information contained on this website. Past results do not guarantee or imply future performance. Please bet on sports legally within your jurisdiction and responsibly within your financial means.
UNITED STATES CITIZENS PLEASE NOTE: The content and information contained on this website or any of the sports handicapping service websites listed on this website are strictly for news and entertainment purposes only. Any use of this content or information in violation of federal, state, or local laws is strictly prohibited. Activities offered by advertising links to other sites may be deemed an illegal activity in certain jurisdictions. Viewers are specifically warned that they should inquire into the legality of participating in any games and/or activities offered by such other websites. The owner of this website assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any of these games and/or activities offered by the advertiser. As a condition of viewing this website viewers agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from the viewer's participation in any of the games and/or activities offered by the advertiser.

Every sports handicapping service website listed on this website is an individually owned and operated private entity. CapperTek does not have any direct affiliation with any of the sports handicapping service websites listed on this website. CapperTek is also not responsible for the content or accessibility of any of the sports handicapping service websites listed on this website. Links to other service websites do not imply any promotion or endorsement of any of the content or information found on those websites. If you choose to follow links to other websites you do so entirely at your own risk. Any third party photographs, images, videos, audio, logos, slogans, trademarks, service marks, domain names, and intellectual property represented on this website are property of their respective owners.