Corner Picks: Best bets odds, predictions for Juventus vs. Roma, Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham and more

Fri, Aug 26, 2022
Soccer News (AP)

When it comes to managers, there are two types of tacticians. There's the tactician who shows up to the match with a plan based on what they saw in training and what they've seen of their opponent. They then send their team out with that plan and adjust accordingly depending on how it's working or how the match is proceeding. The other type is the ideologue. The one who believes the sport should be played in one specific manner and treat the game as if it's a philosophy or a religion more than a competitive contest between teams.

If it wasn't already clear which box Thomas Tuchel fits in, he showed us all last weekend. Chelsea lost to 3-0 in one of the biggest upsets of the early season, and as I watched, I couldn't believe how easily it could've all been avoided if only Tuchel were willing to compromise. Jesse Marsch's style at Leeds isn't complicated. He's going to press like a madman, and when his team has the ball, it will move forward at high speed. Meanwhile, Chelsea is insistent on building from the back. Leeds knew this and pressed like hell to try and win the ball back from Chelsea at every opportunity. It worked so well that Leeds' first goal came because Brendon Aaronson stole the ball from Chelsea goalkeeper Eduoard Mendy's feet as he helplessly looked for somebody to pass the ball to, allowing Aaronson to tap in the easiest goal of his life.

But there was a moment just before it happened that let you know everything about how Thomas Tuchel approaches the sport. You could see Mendy briefly consider the option of just booming the ball into the air, 50 yards away from his goal, to get out from the pressure, but he reconsidered. He knew his manager would lay into him if he did because his manager considers that kind of long passing from his goalie to be an insult to everything decent in the world. So Mendy reconsidered, questioned himself, lost concentration for a millisecond, and then Aaronson struck.

Did this gaffe cause Tuchel to reconsider his team's approach? Of course not; they stayed the course and lost 3-0. That doesn't make Tuchel a bad manager. He's far from the only ideologue in the game, and plenty of them have won many trophies. But, man, sometimes even the most strident believer should question themselves. Because while it'll be long forgotten by the end of the season, those three points Tuchel sacrificed for his pride Saturday could be the difference in Chelsea's Premier League title hopes or a top-four finish.

All odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

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Juventus vs. Roma

Date: Saturday, Aug. 27 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

Juventus vs. Roma Spread Moneyline Total JUV -0.5 +125 BET NOW +135 BET NOW o2.5 -105 BET NOW ROM +0.5 -160 BET NOW +225 BET NOW u2.5 -125 BET NOW DRAW +215 BET NOW

I had a lot of success betting matches in league play last season, but the one team I never seemed to get right was Juventus. Well, I don't care. I'm like Thomas Tuchel. I'm sticking to my guns. I'm a firm believer in fading the narrative this early in the season when we don't have a lot of data to work with. Roma have been one of the most overhyped teams in Serie A this summer and in Europe. This happens when a team with a famous manager goes on a spending spree signing names people recognize. Roma, a team that improved last season under Jose Mourinho, but was far from perfect, were suddenly a top-four team in Italy and would compete for the Scudetto. I didn't buy it then, and I don't buy it now, even with Roma winning their first two matches.

Roma have vastly underperformed their expected goals (xG) so far. They lead Serie A with an xG of 5.23 but have scored only twice. However, I don't think it's as much bad luck as it is inefficient shots. Roma have taken more shots than any other team in the league, but their xG per shot ranks sixth. They've also done this against two teams (Salernitana and Cremonese) likely to be fighting off relegation all year. So if Roma can't finish efficiently against them, why would I trust them against Juventus? Juve haven't been great to start the year themselves, but they're far and away the best team Roma have faced, and it's also the first team that will test a Roma defense that looked vulnerable against the league's best teams last year. We'll see if signing all those forwards this summer solved that problem. My suspicion is it didn't. The Pick: Juventus (+135)

Brighton vs. Leeds United

Date: Saturday, Aug. 27 | Time: 10 a.m. ET | Watch: USA | Stream:'fuboTV'(try for free)

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Leeds United Spread Moneyline Total BHA -0.5 -120 BET NOW -115 BET NOW o2.5 -125 BET NOW LEE +0.5 -110 BET NOW +305 BET NOW u2.5 -105 BET NOW DRAW +270 BET NOW

Will Graham Potter do what Thomas Tuchel wouldn't last week and simply pass the ball over Leeds United's press to get his forwards the ball against Leeds' defenders in space? My suspicion is yes! Both these teams are currently in the top five of the Premier League, but Brighton are the one with the best shot of hanging out at the cool kids' table all season long. As exciting as Leeds' style can be, it's not only chaotic on the field. The lows match the highs, and Brighton are a team I believe equipped to handle what Leeds will throw at it.

Brighton is still underperforming their xG (Brighton's gonna Brighton), but they've been spectacular defensively, so it hasn't mattered. Through three games, they rank third in the Premier League in xG allowed (2.49), and they've done much better in xG allowed of shots on target (0.84). Basically, opponents are heaving prayers at the net because Brighton aren't allowing good shots. While Chelsea handed Leeds opportunities last week, Brighton will make them work much harder for them, and I'm skeptical Leeds is good enough to get them. The Pick: Brighton (-115)

vs.

Date: Sunday, Aug. 28 | Time: 11:30 a.m. ET | Watch: USA'|'Stream:'fuboTV'(try for free)

Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham Hotspur Spread Moneyline Total NF +1.5 -145 BET NOW +600 BET NOW o2.5 -135 BET NOW TOT -1.5 +115 BET NOW -215 BET NOW u2.5 +105 BET NOW DRAW +340 BET NOW

Nottingham have spent a lot of money in the transfer window to put together a team that can play the way manager Steve Cooper wants them to and also play well enough to survive in the Premier League after earning promotion. I'm rooting for them because I enjoy watching them play, but the pragmatist in me wonders how they'll feel about it in December. As for this weekend, Tottenham don't strike me as a great matchup for Forest. Forest want to be on the ball, but Antonio Conte will be happy to let them have it. Conte's teams are built on a foundation of being difficult to break down defensively and quickly striking on the counter after dispossessing the opponent.

Nottingham will give them plenty of chances to do so, and I worry about their ability to stop and company. Honestly, I think Tottenham could get the over on its own in this match. Still, I'm betting the match total because as good as Tottenham have been defensively to start the season, Forest are dangerous with the ball and are capable of getting at least one of their own. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)

Weekend Parlay

We hit last week's parlay, so what do you say we do it again this weekend? This week's effort will pay +146.

Chelsea (-245)
Bayern Munich (-550)
AC Milan (-330)
Barcelona (-750)

	Record	Units
League Play	7-5	+3.33
Champions League	0-0	+0.00
Overall	7-5	+3.33