MLB Home Run Derby 2022: Pete Alonso vs. the field. Who wins?
Mon, Jul 18, 2022
MLB News (AP)
AP Sports MLB Writer
It's Derby Day, one of the best days of the entire year.
Since MLB moved to the current bracket-based, time-oriented format, the Home Run Derby has been phenomenal. Last year in Denver was Ohtani-mania, but'it was Pete Alonso taking the title again. In Cleveland in '19, it was the Vladdy show and Pete's first title. In D.C. in '18, Bryce Harper won at home. And in '17 in Miami, Aaron Judge dominated.'
Like I said, it's been sweet lately. And this Home Run Derby is shaping up to be magnificent yet again.
Part of that is because Dodger Stadium is not a yard that sees a great deal of lengthy long balls. In the Statcast tracking era (since 2015), Dodger Stadium has the second-fewest home runs 440 feet or farther (35) in all of baseball. The only park with fewer is Globe Life Field in Texas, which has existed since only 2020.'
Combine that massive dinger dearth with the fact that this is the first-ever Derby at Dodger Stadium, and you've got yourself a rare opportunity to see MLB's most powerful gents blast baseballs deep into the L.A. hills.'
Now, only six homers have ever completely left Dodger Stadium. Willie Stargell did it twice, in 1965 and '73. Mike Piazza, the only Dodger to do it, cleared the left-field grandstand in '97. Mark McGwire hit a parking-lot bomb in '99. Giancarlo Stanton sent it flying as a Marlin back in '15. And the sore and sorely missed Fernando Tatis Jr. accomplished the feat just last season.
Ben Verlander breaks down his top-five performances in Home Run Derby history, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton. See who else made Ben's list. Need the latest Sports Betting News? Check out Sports Betting Dog today!Will anybody completely leave the yard on Monday? Yes. Absolutely yes. The parking lot is very much in play, as are the scoreboards atop the outfield bleachers. Expect to see things you've never seen before.
To get you prepped for a night of obliterated baseballs, Gatorade breaks and sports joy, here's a rundown of the eight contestants participating in the festivities.
As always, the entrants are seeded in order of how many homers they've hit so far this season. The winners of the first-round matchups move on to the semifinals, the winners of that round move on to the finals. You're a baseball fan, you know how it works.
Ben Verlander gives his round-by-round predictions for the 2022 Home Run Derby at Dodger Stadium.Anyway, here are the matchups.
#1'Kyle Schwarber (29 homers) vs. #8 Albert Pujols (six homers)
The Derby at Nats Park in 2018 is remembered as'Harper's last hurrah as a member of the'Nationals. At the time, it felt like a galvanizing moment that could jumpstart what had been a lackluster Nats club. Alas, baseball clubhouses don't really care about Home Run Derby wins, and seven months later Harper was in Philly.
But all the Harper hoopla overshadowed just how good Schwarber was that night. In total, the former Cub actually hit 10 more big flies than Harper, but Schwarber lost the final matchup. Cubs fans are probably still irked that Bryce wasn't penalized for getting his BP pitches before the previous batted ball touched down.
Schwarber's 55 homers in 2018 still stands as the seventh-most ever hit in a single Derby (to be fair, that tally is skewed by the relatively recent shift in format). And considering how scalding he has been at times for the'Phillies this first half - his 29 homers lead the NL - Schwarber is probably the second favorite beyond Alonso to take home the crown.
But while Schwarber has to be considered a frontrunner, Pujols might be the longest shot in Derby history. A win by the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer in his final All-Star Game would be downright shocking considering that Albert has just six homers this season as a part-time bench bat who predominantly faces left-handed pitchers.
The Derby requires physical stamina as much as raw juice. Pujols is a nice story and a legend, and it's cool that they let him participate, but there's really no way he wins. Right?
#2 Pete Alonso (24 homers) vs. #7 Ronald Acuna Jr. (eight homers)
As the two-time defending champion, Mets slugger Alonso is seeking to be the event's first ever back-to-back-to-back winner. Only Junior Griffey has ever won it thrice. Last year in Denver, Alonso picked up his second straight title belt with a spectacular performance and officially solidified himself at the new "Home Run Derby Guy."
While many other power guys rely on pre-pitch movement and a high-effort swing to drive the baseball, Alonso has so much raw juice that he doesn't actually need to swing that hard in a Derby. That short, compact and repeatable stroke has propelled his two previous wins and will make him extremely tough to beat yet again.
When he gets into a rhythm like he did last year, Pete is a machine, blasting tater after tater deep over the left-center-field fence. What's more, he loves the show. Some sluggers are reluctant or refuse to participate, afraid that it could mess up their swing for the second half.'
Alonso cares not for that rubbish. The Derby is his stage, where he feels most comfortable. If he takes home the belt for a third straight time, he'll get to call himself the greatest Derby hitter ever.
Acuna has participated in the Derby only once before, at the 2019 edition at Progressive Field in Cleveland. That night, Acuna was electric in his first round, besting'Josh Bell 25-18, and Acuna took Alonso to the brink by whopping 19 homers in their second-round matchup.'
The Derby is an exhibition, yes, but that loss to Alonso will definitely be in Acuna's mind come Monday night.'
Compared to Alonso's raw polar bear strength, Acuna's power is much more dependent on his elite bat speed and his full-effort hack. That means, at least in theory, he'll tire out at a faster rate than his competitors, but he should prove a real challenge to Alonso in the first round.'
A major takeaway from Acuna's 2019 performance was how easy and often he drove the ball out to the opposite field. While other Derby hitters might have to let an errant batting practice toss on the outer half go by, Acuna can just smack it out to right field.
It's somewhat surprising that the'Braves have allowed Acuna to participate considering he's just over a year removed from his ACL injury, so you have to imagine that he genuinely cares about participating. In 2019, he put on a show and lost to Alonso by a hair. In 2020, there was no Derby, and he missed last year's festivities after suffering the ACL injury a week before the break.'
I think Acuna is being overlooked a bit and is a dark horse to win the whole thing.
#3 Corey Seager (22 homers) vs. #6 Julio Rodriguez (16 homers)
For the first time since 2012, there's no hometown hitter participating in the Derby. But Rangers shortstop Seager, who spent the first six years of his career in Dodger blue, should play the role of crowd favorite. His departure from L.A. felt like a foregone conclusion after the'Dodgers traded for'Trea Turner last July, and it doesn't seem like there's any resentment toward Seager from the fan base.
His only previous participation was at Petco Park in 2016, halfway through his rookie season. He lost to Mark Trumbo in the first round. Until I looked it up, I had completely forgotten that Seager had been in that Derby. (Don't hate on me; a lot has happened in the past six years.)
Similar to Acuna, Seager's opposite-field prowess should play to his advantage, as should his familiarity with Dodger Stadium. Little things like knowing how the ball comes out of the center-field batter's eye and how flies carry to different parts of the park could make a real difference, especially when you consider that Rodriguez has never played at Dodger Stadium before.
Like Seager six years ago, Rodriguez is Derby-ing midway through a sensational rookie season. Two other rookies, Judge in 2017 and Alonso in 2019, have won in the past four editions, so perhaps youthful exuberance is a plus.
You can imagine a scenario in which J-Rod's eagerness gets the best of him, and he overswings his way to an early exit. But you can just as easily picture him catching absolute fire, winning over the crowd despite knocking off the former Dodger and storming his way to a rousing Derby title.'
All with a smile on his face.
#4'Juan Soto (20 homers) vs. #5 Jose Ramirez (19 homers)
There were so many Derby storylines last year - Alonso's dominance, Trey Mancini's comeback story, the fanfare around Shohei Ohtani's Derby debut - that it's easy to forget how awesome Soto was in his first try.'
The Nats' 23-year-old maestro went toe-to-toe with Shohei in a battle for the Derby ages, the two superstars tying during regulation and again during a tie-breaker. Soto edged out Ohtani in the three-pitch swing-off before running out of gas and hitting "just" 15 in the semifinals against eventual champion Alonso.
The hot gossip this week about Soto declining a $440 million contract offer from Washington will have absolutely zero bearing on the Derby. He'll probably get asked about it at media day and at the pre-Derby presser, but when Juan Soto is in the box at Dodger Stadium, his cranium won't be lingering on trade destinations. He'll have homers to hit.'
On Flippin' Bats, Ben Verlander discusses Juan Soto rejecting the Nationals' mega-contract proposal and what this means moving forward.J-Ram, who put all the trade rumors to bed by signing an extension with Cleveland earlier this year, is the only other first-time Derby participant besides Rodriguez. It'll be interesting to see which side of the plate the switch-hitting Ramirez opts for considering that Dodger Stadium's fences are perfectly even for righties and lefties.'
I have no idea how repeatable Ramirez's powerful hack will be over the course of an entire Derby, but he's sure to hit a couple of laser beams that might send a Dodger Dog or two flying into the night.
The Pick
I'm going out on a limb and picking Kyle Schwarber, the slugger with the most home runs entering the event, to win. I think his swing is just so perfect for the Derby, and he'll be able to take it pretty easy and save his energy in the first round against Pujols.'
For an even bolder prediction, I'll say Acuna beats Alonso in the first round. Alonso is a formidable Derby force, and a big part of me hopes I'm wrong and he makes history with his third straight title. But Acuna's 2019 performance is just so overlooked and was just so impressive that I think he shocks the world by sending Pete packing prematurely.
Jake Mintz is the louder half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for AP Sports. He's an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he's not watching baseball, he's almost certainly riding his bike. You can follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.
