NFL odds: Bet on the Ravens and other best Week 1 preseason wagers

Thu, Aug 11, 2022
NFL News (AP)

By Geoff Schwartz
AP Sports NFL Analyst ' ''

I've been warning you that football season was sneaking up on us, and now, here we are! The first full weekend of the NFL preseason calendar is here.'

"Geoff, it's the preseason; we won't even see action from many of the starters." Yes, yes, I hear you. While you might laugh at wagering on the preseason, believe me when I say there is money to be made.'

But when you consider there are a couple of coaches whose preseason records present some solid betting opportunities, these practice games are worth a few looks.

Let's get to my best bets for this week!

THURSDAY

Giants @ Patriots (7 p.m. ET, NFLN)

NFLN NFL New York Giants NYG New England Patriots NE

This is one game where I'm not looking at coaching records. I'm basing my wager on this game on camp reports. It's risky, but I'll explain my reasoning. Reports from camp show there is slow offensive progress for both teams at the moment. The Giants have a new scheme with head coach Brian Daboll. The run game appears to be clicking sooner than the passing game, and as a whole, this offense is just getting started. If the players getting the first reps are struggling, so is the rest of the depth chart.

I do not recall seeing a playoff-contending team with so much angst about one side of the ball heading into a season as the New England Patriots. The Pats lost long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Raiders when he took their head coaching job. The reports about what the offense looks like under Matt Patricia - former defensive coordinator and Lions head coach - are dire. They've got no ability to move the ball from everything I'm hearing. The Patriots went to a new run scheme, and apparently, Mac Jones is still in the process of learning the new passing game. Ehh... not good.

I'll fade both offenses in this contest.

PICK: Under 34 points scored by both teams combined at AP BET

Titans @ Ravens (7:30 p.m. ET, TV TBA)

NFL Tennessee Titans TEN Baltimore Ravens BAL

We wager on the Ravens in the preseason. End of story.'

John Harbaugh's team has won 20 straight preseason games while covering 17 of those. Harbaugh is a mind-blowing 37-15 against the spread (ATS) in the preseason. His record is easy to explain. The Ravens run an offense that you cannot prepare for in the preseason. You are not spending time in camp with your defense learning the Ravens' offense, especially if you aren't playing them early in the season. And then think about the guys getting second and third reps. They're just trying to keep their heads above water to make the team, so they don't have the bandwidth to dissect the Ravens' offense. Combine that with the Ravens' well-oiled rushing attack that features multiple mesh points, motions and players they use as decoys, and that's a tough scene for any opposing defense.'

Ravens will win and cover.

PICK: Ravens (-3.5 at AP Bet) to win by more than 3.5 points

FRIDAY

Browns @ Jaguars (7 p.m. ET, TV TBA)

NFL Cleveland Browns CLE Jacksonville Jaguars JAX

Reports are the Browns will be playing Deshaun Watson in their preseason opener. He's playing because the Browns need to get him some live reps with the first team. After all, he hasn't played football in over a season. Remember, Watson has a suspension looming which will mean even more time away from football, and frankly, Cleveland needs to see him in some game action. If Deshaun is playing, so is the starting offense, and the Browns' starting offense is far better than the Jaguars' defense right now.'

The Browns will script up Watson for success. So I'll take them in the first quarter.

PICK: Browns pick 'em first quarter

SATURDAY

Seahawks @ Steelers (7 p.m. ET, NFLN)

Point spread:'Steelers -3 (Steelers favored to win by more than 3 points, otherwise Seahawks cover)
Moneyline:'Steelers -167 favorites to win'(bet $10 to win $15.99 total);'Seahawks'+130 underdogs to win'(bet $10 to win $23 total)
Total scoring over/under:'36 points scored by both teams combined

Pete Carroll is 36-20 ATS in the preseason. As a competitive defensive coach, he wants to win these games. Defensive coaches care way more about winning preseason games while offensive coaches care about getting their work in and going home. The Seahawks have a competitive quarterback competition and will try to put these guys in situations to succeed against the Steelers.'

Trust me, Seattle will just want this game more. I'm going with the trends and taking Carroll's 62.4% preseason ATS record against Tomlin, who is slightly under .500 in that category.

PICK: Seahawks (+3.5 at AP Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

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