World Cup 2022 odds: The 4 best World Cup futures bets to make now

Thu, Apr 14, 2022
Soccer News (AP)

The World Cup will be here before you know it! Yes, we're seven months away from the World Cup starting in Qatar, but now that the groups are set, the market has adjusted futures odds. This is why it's time to break down some odds and throw down a couple of early bets.

It's rare to see underdogs make a run and capture the Cup, as the same half-dozen teams usually dominate the tournament. France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Brazil and Argentina have won the last 13 Cups, dating back to 1970. But, we've seen some outsiders sneak into the semifinals over the last decade in Turkey, Croatia and Belgium, which intrigued me from a gambling perspective.

Let's dive in. Here are three longshots that could crash the party this winter as well as one favorite that should go far - with odds courtesy of AP Bet.

England: +550 at AP Bet (bet $10 to win $65 total)

First, let's look at the one you should get in on now, The Three Lions. One of the top five favorites to capture the title, England is fresh off the impressive run to the Finals of the 2020 Euros (played in 2021 due to COVID-19). After impressive wins over Germany and Denmark, England lost to Italy in PKs.

England last won the World Cup in 1966 and has had heartbreak multiple times since then. The team finished fourth in 1990, they lost to Argentina in the knockout rounds in 1998 after David Beckham's red card and then there was a fourth-place finish in 2018. But, this will be the strongest team England has fielded.

Is there a better group of attackers than Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling and Manchester City teammates Phil Foden and Jack Grealish? The defense is loaded, with only one distinguished starter over 30 (Kyle Walker). If you're picking nits, the midfield is good, not great.

England is used to being let down, but anything less than reaching the Final would be a disappointment.

Senegal: +6600 at AP Bet (bet $10 to win $670 total)

The biggest market mover since the draw is Senegal. The Lions of Teranga went from +8000 to as low as +6600.

Much was made of how Senegal got here - taking down Mo Salah and Egypt in the "green laser pointer game." And Senegal's best player, forward Sane Mane, hit the game-winning penalty kick.

Mane is tied for most goals in national team history (29) and plays his club soccer with Liverpool. The Senegal roster has half a dozen EPL players, and their best defender is Abdou Diallo, a defender for PSG in France's top league. So why the big market move after the draw?

Because Qatar is the weakest team in the field, and Ecuador is also not very strong. This leaves the Netherlands - a strong but aging team. The golden generation of Sneijder, van Persie and Robben are long gone, and the holdovers (Blind, Wijnaldum, de Jong) are playing in their last Cup. Will Barcelona teammates Memphis Depay and Frenkie de Jong be enough to carry L'Orange?

We will find out right when the event begins, as the Netherlands will play Senegal in the first match. If Senegal wins, they'll become the Group's favorites and potentially face the U.S. in the knockout stage. Remember, after the favorites, you're betting the path.

United States: +8000 at AP Bet (bet $10 to win $810 total)

The U.S. is the youngest team in the field - by far - with an average age of 24.3. Ecuador comes in second, at 26.3. The good news is the stench of failing to qualify for the 2018 Cup is not attached to this group, many of whom were teenagers at the time.

There's a chance the United States doesn't field a player 30 or older on the World Cup roster. Gone are stalwarts Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore; enter budding stars like Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Giovanni Reyna (Borussia Dortmund) and Weston McKennie (Juventus).

On paper, this is a more talented team than the 2002 group that reached the World Cup 2002 quarterfinals. This is the most global talent the US has ever had: 22-year-old Timothy Weah plays in France's top league; 23-year-old Tyler Adams stars in Germany; 21-year-old Sergino Dest in Barcelona; 24-year-old Antonee Robinson for Fulham.

It is tough to handicap the draw as of this moment since the first opponent isn't known. That game will be a must-win, with England looming in the second game on Black Friday.

It feels like a boom-bust Cup for the Americans. Not advancing would be disappointing but understandable, but a run to the quarters is a strong possibility.

Canada: +20000 at AP Bet (bet $10 to win $2,010 total)

The longest shot in this post is definitely Canada, which has never won a game at the World Cup. In fact, Canada has never scored a goal in World Cup history, and this is the first time they've qualified since 1986.

But now, the good news. The team has had a couple of impressive wins in qualifying - 2-0 over the United States in January and then 2-1 over Mexico in November. Then they've got star power in 21-year-old Alphonso Davies who happens to be one of the world's best young defenders and plays for Bayern Munich. Also, 22-year-old forward Jonathan David paired with Cyle Larin forms a potent goal-scoring duo. And most importantly, the draw features big-name opponents that aren't quite what they were.

Belgium remains formidable with the trio of Lukaku (Chelsea), De Bruyne (Man City) and Hazard (Real Madrid), who carried the squad to a third-place finish in 2018 after reaching the quarters in 2014. But the fifth-place finish at the 2020 Euros was viewed as a disappointment. The top defender, Jan Vertonghen, will be 35 when the Cup begins, and midfielder Axel Wiesel is 33. Canada could catch them napping in the opener.

A win or tie there sets up a great chance against an old Croatia team led by soon-to-be 37-year-old legend Luka Modric, and their second-best player is 33-year-old Ivan Perisic. A win in either of those first two games would undoubtedly propel them to the knockout stages.

Lines for every team to win the World Cup

Jason McIntyre is a AP Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for AP Sports. He had a gambling podcast for AP, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at AP, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.

Play AP Super 6 every week for your chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your picks today!