Finding Value Betting on the 2025 NBA Draft

Wed, Jun 25, 2025
by CapperTek

Image courtesy of the NBA

The National Basketball Association (NBA) season has concluded, with the Oklahoma City Thunder being crowned champions after a thrilling 4-3 victory over the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals. Although the playing side of things is done and dusted, the season isn't quite over yet because the excitement of the 2025 NBA Draft is on the horizon.

Between June 25-26, basketball royalty will descend on the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York, the home of the Brooklyn Nets, for the 2025 NBA Draft. The 30 NBA franchises will take their pick from the cream of the college crop, with those youngsters making the leap from college basketball to the glitz, glam, and unfathomable riches of the NBA. We already know the draft order, and the number-one overall pick is a formality, so is there any value in betting on the 2025 NBA Draft's outcome?

Cooper Flagg to the Dallas Mavericks is a Certainty

They say nothing is certain in basketball, but that was before Cooper Flagg declared for the 2025 NBA Draft. The 18-year-old Maine native was incredible for Duke, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. Flagg is a generational talent who could become the face of the NBA for many years. The Dallas Mavericks selecting Flagg with their number-one pick is so certain that most of the best NBA betting websites have stopped accepting wagers on that happening. Those who are taking bets are offering ridiculously short odds.

It does not take a genius to determine that there is no value in betting on who will be the 2025 NBA Draft's first overall pick. Strangely, there is not much value in the number-two pick, either. That is because during any other year, Rutgers' Dylan Harper, whose father won five NBA championships, would have been the first name out of the hat.

Like Flagg, Harper is a supremely talented youngster who should reach basketball's upper echelons. Across 29 games for Rutgers last season, Harper averaged 19.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game. The San Antonio Spurs are so likely to use their second overall pick to take Harper to the Frost Bank Center that typical odds of that happening are around the -3300 mark. Again, no value can be found here.

Backing the Third Overall Pick is Where the Value Lies

As the first two 2025 NBA Draft picks are essentially sewn up, the value lies in correctly predicting who the third pick will be. Unless there are some funky late deals, the Philadelphia 76ers have the third pick, but mock draft compilers cannot agree on who the 76ers will choose.

The 76ers are coming off the back of a disappointing season that saw them finish 24-58 and miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2016-17 campaign. Last year, the 76ers used their 12th overall pick to select Duke's Jared McCain. He started his professional career positively until a knee injury sustained in December ruled him out for the rest of the season.

Reports and the most recent mock drafts had the 76ers selecting Airious "Ace" Bailey with their number-three pick. Bailey is widely considered the third-best recruit of the current class, and his 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game add substance to those claims. However, the tactics Bailey's agency is employing as the draft rapidly approaches have left pundits scratching their heads and NBA management considering other options.

At the time of writing, Bailey is the only American-based draft prospect who has not visited any teams for a workout. Bailey and his team are flat refusing to attend any workouts, believing their talented youngster's performances on the court for Rutgers speak for themselves. It is a risky move from Bailey's team, with basketball experts stating this is essentially Bailey saying no to the 76ers. Many predict Bailey could now go as late as sixth in the draft, where the Washington Wizards wait with bated breath.

The Door is Open for VJ Edgecombe

If Bailey is potentially sliding down the pecking order, whose stock is rising? Baylor's VJ Edgecombe is the answer to that particular question. Hailing from Bimini in the Bahamas, Edgecombe is the most explosive athlete in this draft. Edgecombe is highly athletic, and although his ball-handling and ability to play with pace are still a work in progress, the Bahamian has a high ceiling that will see him selected early in the draft.

He averaged 15.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.1 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game over 33 games for Baylor last season. With Bailey's perplexing strategy leaving basketball executives wondering what is going on, Edgecombe will probably be selected with the third overall pick because he will be seen as a safer yet still impressive alternative. Odds of around -250 are not fantastic, but they are much better than those you will receive betting on the number-one and two picks.

Conclusion

The NBA Draft is an exciting time for basketball fans, even those who do not have their colors nailed to a mast. The draft ushers in a new era and brings the best youngsters to the professional game, and some incredible college players are joining the NBA ranks this year.

The Dallas Mavericks selecting Cooper Flagg as the number-one overall pick is a foregone conclusion. There is not a team on the planet that would not want Flagg on their roster. Dylan Harper going at two is another almost certainty; expect him to be a San Antonio Spurs player in 2025.

That leaves the third overall pick for value-hunters. Although Ace Bailey is the third-best recruit, his bizarre refusal to attend workouts will likely cost him being selected at three, opening the door for VJ Edgecombe to become a 76ers player next term.