Super Bowl LX: Exploring the Over/Under Points Markets
Sun, Feb 1, 2026
by
CapperTek
Whatever way we look at it, Super Bowl LX really does feel like one of the most intriguing matchups in modern NFL history. It’s a world away from Super Bowl XLIX, when the Seahawks and Patriots last collided in the big game, and it’s somewhat curious to consider just how big the odds for these two teams were at the start of the season.
Yet, here we are, with Seattle slightly favored to go on to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Bettors will, of course, be looking at a myriad of different options for the game, and we wanted to discuss the total points market, which has been set over/under 45.5 according to the live Super Bowl odds at DraftKings sportsbook.
Markets reflect teams’ season stats
The marker feels about right when you put it in the context of the two teams’ seasons. Across 20 games (17 regular season + 3 playoff games), the Patriots’ games have recorded an average of 44.5 points. For the Seahawks, it’s 46.3 (19 games in total), thus 45.5 feels like landing in the middle.
That said, you can take the game in the context of modern Super Bowls, which have averaged 48.5 points per game (approximately across the last 20 seasons). The market has actually tended to overshoot over the last 20 seasons, closing at 50.1 points on game day on average.
For Super Bowl LX, it’s a bit of a strange one. Seattle’s defense has been celebrated all season, but it has been under pressure when coming up against high-quality teams like the Rams. The last two meetings between LA and Seattle have seen the former score 37 and 27 points respectively, with the Seahawks doing enough in both games to get over the line. The 4th quarter in the NFC Conference Final demonstrated how they can shut down teams and protect a lead.
For the Patriots, the postseason was all about defense, conceding just 26 points in total across the three games. The Pats were relatively low-scoring in the Playoffs, too, though, only exceeding 20 points once (in the Divisional Round). The Pats have also been slow starters, too, scoring just 7 points in the first quarter across all three games. It’s something to factor in if you are looking at the totals from individual quarters.
Super Bowls have been tight on scoring early on
Indeed, there is real data behind the tight early on Super Bowl vibe. Across the last 19 editions, the losing team has scored on average 2.2 points in the first quarter (compared to regular season averages of 5.7 points); winning teams have scored 4.7 points on average in the first quarter, which is down from 5.0 points on average in the regular season. “0” is the most common first quarter squares digit, showing up 55 times in 118 possible outcomes of Super Bowl history.
It remains to be seen how this game goes. Seattle’s offense can be so explosive that any predictions of low-scoring quarters or low-scoring games might be made a mockery of. Yet, we would lean toward the ‘under’ betting lines. These teams are in the Super Bowl on merit, yet there is a lack of big game experience (beyond this year’s Playoffs) for many of the players involved. It feels like it could be nervy early on, with the Patriots’ plan to neuter the Seahawks’ offense superseding its own plans of attack. As mentioned, such an assertion could seem foolish post-game, but it wouldn’t surprise us to see this remain tight.