Why Variance Now Trumps RTP In Online Casino Slots Play

Thu, Oct 9, 2025
by CapperTek

Casino slots run on random number generators. There is, as such, no way to guess the outcome, and anyone who says otherwise is either naïve or not telling the truth. Nonetheless, over the 30 years or so since the first online casinos arrived on the nascent internet, there have been plenty of discussions over slots strategy, and we’d argue that the majority of that has centered on RTP (Return to Player).

RTP is effectively a measurement of house edge in reverse for digital games. If a game has an RTP of 95% that means the game theoretically will pay back $95 for every $100 wagered over time. Trusted online casinos will either publish their own RTP figures or have independent audits to provide evidence that the RTP is as stated by the game providers.

RTP has often been valued by experienced players

Logically, then, RTP matters. If you play a slot game with 91% RTP and another with 97.2%, the latter is going to be the superior choice. Back in the 2000s, when the concept of online casinos really took hold, there were even websites dedicated to publishing RTP so players could make informed decisions. NetEnt’s Bloodsuckers was often cited as one of the most famous titles with a high RTP, coming in at 98%. For reference, most slots have an RTP of around 93-96%.

However, while playing high RTP games forms part of a sound theory, it only tells half the story. These calculations are made across millions of spins, perhaps billions, so there is no way to ascertain when the game will pay. The RTP figure does not apply to you alone, but to numerous players playing at different casinos, often in different countries. The figure is almost meaningless when you approach it over a session.

More recently, the concept of variance – or volatility – has become a much more sought-after reading to inform players. RTP does not tell you anything about how a slot behaves, whereas variance offers an insight into the game’s temperament. Here’s a rough outline:

Low volatility – Game consistently pays small wins. Bigger wins are rare. Examples include classic titles like Starburst.

Medium volatility – Game is less frequent with smaller wins, but bankroll can be maintained. Bigger wins are more common. Examples include some Megaways games.

High Volatility – Game is much less frequent with smaller wins, and your bankroll can evaporate quickly. Bigger wins are more common. Examples include Big Bass Splash.

Extreme Volatility – Games are characterized by highly volatile play, sometimes including the purchases of expensive Bonus Buys. Big wins can hit explosively. Examples include Fire in the Hole 3.

Variance/volatility may be more valuable to players

The above is only a rough outline, and some games will overlap, but you can often see at a glance that the information can be useful as they lay out the slot’s behavior, allowing the player to marry that to their goals. For instance, if you are playing to make wagering requirements for a casino bonus, then low volatility slots would be the way forward. If you are looking for a moonshot and are willing to risk your bankroll, then higher volatility games might be the way to go.

We know that today players value the concept of variance, perhaps more than RTP, because game providers are advertising it prominently. You can even cite games like Beam Boys from Hacksaw Gaming that let players choose the type of volatility they want. It all boils down to one fact: it allows players to understand the risk-versus-reward concept of the game before they spin.