2025 NFL - Week 10 Cell Door Locks

Fri, Nov 7, 2025
by BondMoney.cappertek.com

The trade deadline passed with a few headlines but no real blockbusters. The Cowboys got edge rusher Quinnen Williams from Jets, the Colts got CB Sauce Gardner from the Jets (are the Jets trying to ensure the 1st overall pick in 2026 or what?), LB Jaelan Phillips from the Dolphins—he of the Achilles and ACL injuries—joins the Eagles, Raiders trade Jakobi Meyers to the Jags... There were a few more but nothing that would effect this week’s lines. On the heels of another rough 7 days, I need to dig deep this Sunday. Another 2-5 outing might do irreparable harm to my guru status :-) My lone comfort is that Claude agreed with me on all seven games and therefore gained no ground. We remain tied at 14-14 on the season. That damn nerd has proven to be a worthy adversary :-) Similar to last week, I feel obligated to list my reasoning for the teams I pick. So without further preamble, here we go...

  1. QB Davis Mills gets the start for Houston with Stroud out with a concussion. Meanwhile Jax rediscovered their offense last weekend in Vegas. This is one where I can lose and still sleep good knowing I backed the logical side. Clear mismatch at the most important position on the field. Gimme the big cats.

  2. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are well rested and had two weeks to marinate in their last loss to the Lions. But have they beaten anyone by more than 4 points this year? I’m going to take the Pats here. Their offensive production continues to build and Drake Maye is looking like the best pick in the 2024 draft. This could be the shootout of the week.

  3. I like the ’hawks here. They catch Arz on the short week in a divisional battle and are giving up less than a TD as I type this. Their defense should be suffocating at home and Darnold is proving that last year was no flash in the proverbial pan.

  4. The Rams have way too much on both sides of the ball for this aging version of the Niners. And similar to the Seahawks, they’re giving up less than a TD as I type. You may have to buy the hook if the line moves but LAR -6.5 is pretty close to a lock.

  5. I’ll take the Lions to bounce back in a big way against the hobbled Commanders in a revenge game. Remember, the Lions were on their way to the Super Bowl last year when they ran up on Jayden Daniels and the Commanders who spoiled their party. Washington won’t have Jayden in this one. But even if they did, it would be a bad spot. Detroit lost at home to Viks last week. They’ll be grumpy in this one. Easy cover for the Lions.

So to recap:

Jax -1 @ Hou
NE +2.5 @ TB*
Sea -7 vs. Arz
Lar -4.5 @ SF*
Det -8.5 @ Was

*Claude disagrees with Bond$ on 2 Locks this weekend: NE, and Lar.
Last 7 Days’ Locks: 2-5 
YTD: 34-31
Last 7 Days vs. AI: 0-0
YTD vs. AI: 14-14
Lines based on CapperTek as of Friday, November 7, 2025.
Don’t be a sucker. It’s just rec. Wishing you Momentum.