CHARGERS AT PATRIOTS WILDCARD WEEK

Tue, Jan 6, 2026
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

Chargers at Patriots — where the model gets… uneasy

This one is sneaky, because at first glance it looks straightforward. Vegas has the New England Patriots favored by 3.5 at home, and the total sitting at 46.5 suggests a game that should get into the mid-20s on both sides.

But once you run the four perspectives—straight and reversed—the clarity starts to blur.

On the surface, the Los Angeles Chargers profile like a middling offense against a defense that can be stingy, while New England shows up as an offense that consistently gets into scoring range. That alone would point toward a Patriots win. But the reversed numbers introduce a completely different personality to this matchup.

When the Chargers’ defensive allowance flips from 25 down to 16, it paints a version of the game where they slow things down far more than expected. At the same time, the Patriots’ defense jumping from 7.5 allowed to 21.5 in the reversed view creates a crack in what otherwise looks like a dominant unit.

Meanwhile, the offenses don’t really collapse in either direction. The Chargers hover around 20–21 points no matter how you slice it, and the Patriots sit firmly in the high-20s in both views. That consistency is important—but it also means the margin is where the game gets decided, not the total scoring power.

The four score perspectives (for context)

Straight numbers: Patriots 28, Chargers 20

Fully reversed: Patriots 29, Chargers 21

D-leaning view: Patriots 22, Chargers 20

O-leaning view: Patriots 29, Chargers 21

How it lines up with Vegas

Vegas saying Patriots -3.5 is interesting here, because several of these outcomes live right on that edge. This doesn’t feel like a game where New England runs away—it feels like one where they’re in control, but not necessarily comfortable.

The 46.5 total also makes sense in context. The model shows plenty of paths to the mid-40s, but it needs both offenses to stay on script. If the Chargers’ defense shows up in its “reversed” form, the over suddenly looks a lot less safe.

The takeaway

This is one of those games where the model whispers caution. The Patriots profile as the better team, yet the Chargers show up in just enough versions of this game to make the spread feel fragile.

If you told me this ends Patriots by a field goal either way, I wouldn’t blink.