MY TOP CONTENDERS TO MAKE THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS 2025

Fri, Aug 22, 2025
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

The new 12-team College Football Playoff has opened the door for chaos, and that’s exactly where quarterback value changes everything. In 2024, Alabama limped off at the end and missed the playoffs entirely, while SMU snuck in behind accurate passer Preston Stone. That’s the difference a quarterback makes. Now look ahead: programs like Michigan with Bryce Underwood, Penn State with Drew Allar, and Clemson with Chris Vizzina are already positioned to control their playoff destiny. But when you add in dark horses like Tulane, App State, or even Colorado, each with an elite quarterback on my board, the playoff picture suddenly tilts. The committee can juggle brands and resumes, but at the end of the day, in this format, an elite QB is the surest ticket to January football.

An Overview

12 teams total
Automatic bids (6): The 6 highest-ranked conference champions get in.
At-large bids (6): The next 6 highest-ranked teams.
Seeding: Top 4 seeds go to the highest-ranked conference champs (first-round bye).

This means:

Any FBS team in any conference is eligible if they win their conference and are ranked high enough.
That includes Power 4 (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) and Group of 5 (Sun Belt, MAC, AAC, etc.).

Big-Program Heavy Hitters

Michigan – Bryce Underwood & Mikey Keene
Underwood is one of the most hyped QB recruits ever, while Keene gives them depth. The fact both rate high on my list, makes Michigan QB-proof if either plays.
USC – Sam Huard
I don’t like the other Trojans QBs, so their entire success hinges on Huard. He’s NFL-bloodline, accurate, and if he starts, USC’s ceiling stays alive. If not? Red flag.
Penn State – Drew Allar
Already tested, already rated high. He’s a big reason PSU is consensus Top 3 nationally this preseason.

Strong Conference Leaders

Florida State – Thomas Castellanos
Athletic and accurate — the system test case. If he thrives where DJU failed, it vindicates FSU’s from last year’s disappointing season.
Clemson – Chris Vizzina
One of the quiet “big hits.” Clemson finally has stability here if they lean on him instead of forcing a system QB.
Michigan State – Aidan Chiles
One of the most gifted dual-threats in the Big Ten. If he’s developed right, Sparty has a real pulse again.
Houston – Conner Weigman
Big arm, steady poise — top tier quarterback. He’s a QB that can flip a conference race.

Program-Changers / Risers

Appalachian State – AJ Swann
He makes App State a giant-killer. He elevates them beyond “spoiler” into legit contender.
Sacramento State – Jaden Rashada
A “proof of concept” guy — the talent was never the issue. This landing spot lets him showcase it. At the moment Sacramento State can not participate in the CFB 12 team playoffs.
Texas Tech – Mitch Griffis
Smart, accurate, and sneaky good fit in Tech’s pass-heavy attack. He can push them to Big 12 relevance.
Northwestern – Preston Stone
Led SMU to the playoffs last season.
Colorado – Caden Salter
The Buffs’ X-factor. With Shedeur gone, Salter may actually be a perfect replacement. He’s as good as Shedeur. This would be a great long-term fit.
Tulane – Jake Retzlaff
Another “system gem.” Tulane always pops with the right QB, and Retzlaff might be their next Drew Brees-level guy.
Bowling Green – Drew Pyne
A veteran with underrated tools. He gives a MAC program a chance to play spoiler.

Common Thread On The List

All are “program-shifters.” Each of these QBs either keeps a blue-blood alive (Allar, Underwood, Huard) or elevates mid-tier programs into spoiler/fringe-playoff range (Swann, Retzlaff, Pyne).
The quarterback-first in evaluation. If they start, the team has a ceiling. If not, you fade the team.
USC & FSU are the litmus tests. Whether Huard and Castellanos start/produce tells you if those programs are real playoff threats or just ranked on brand.

In the end, the 12-team playoff won’t be decided by history, brand names, or even strength of schedule—it will be decided by who has an elite quarterback. Alabama showed what happens when the QB value dips, while programs like Michigan, Penn State, and Clemson are built to thrive because they’ve found theirs. And if the dark horses with hidden skills—Tulane, App State, Colorado—push through, the bracket could look more like March Madness than the old four-team era ever allowed. One thing is certain: in this new format, a quarterback isn’t just part of the roster—he’s the entire playoff equation.