Best Soccer Betting Methods
Sun, Mar 20, 2022
Whilst there remains no correct way of wagering on soccer, many sports bettors use a number of concepts to give them the best chance of winning in the long run.
One of the easiest concepts to grasp, value betting involves analyzing all of the odds a certain sportsbook has for a market, and judging as to whether they are good value or not.
If you perceive a certain wager to have odds better (higher) than you think they should be, you have identified what is in your opinion ‘value bet’.
By consistently picking out value bets and being successful, you will rack up some nice winnings in the long run. However, be prepared to lose more of your bets!
The Gambler’s Fallacy
The gambler’s fallacy is the idea that the outcome of a certain random event is less or more likely to happen based on the result of a previous event or series of events.
It is by no means a certain way of judging events, as often past events do not change the outcome of future events.
For example, if the DC United have won all of their previous five games, those that are unaware of gambler’s fallacy may simply bet on the DC United while ignoring some potentially key factors.
Some of these factors could be: their opponents, injuries, suspensions, upcoming games resulting in a change of tactics, and plenty more.
Those that take gambler’s fallacy into account will most likely be more aware of these factors, and potentially avoid betting heavily without first considering the other factors highlighted.
Beware of the Heavy Favorite
Betting on the favorite may seem like an obvious method to follow,
with the sportsbooks giving you a clear option on who is more likely to
win. Some soccer teams are huge favorites compared to others.
This method would work, if you had a very large balance, as you will make little profit from each bet. Done over a large period of time, with large stakes placed, you will most likely see eventual profit.
While this method would appear easy, if the favorite does NOT win, then it can be tough losing a large stake, and you may end up chasing your losses.
The term “dutching” is often used to describe a betting method that guarantees profit, taking advantage of free bets and requiring more than one sportsbook account.
Essentially, dutching involves betting on markets that are unevenly priced between different sportsbooks, with you betting different amounts on each one to ensure a profit.
For example, Everygame may price the Los Angeles FC to beat the Vancouver Whitecaps FC at +300 with a -6.5 points spread, whilst BetOnline may price the Whitecaps to win with a +6.5 point spread at +200.
In this instance, you would need to wager $40 on the Jets and $60 on the Bills to guarantee a profit of $20, with these bets needing to be placed with different bookies in order to succeed.
While $20 profit may not seem a lot, with “dutching,” you are guaranteed to win no matter the result of the game/market you are betting on, as you are covering both outcomes.
Dutching involves adjusting the amount you bet depending on the odds to ensure that you win the same amount of money no matter which bet wins.
Despite requiring a little more time and effort, it is definitely worth looking more into dutching as a betting method.
Hedge betting is fairly similar to “dutching” in the way that you are betting on multiple markets on the same event to ensure a profit.
However with hedge betting, you are betting against a bet you have already placed previously once the odds for the other side of the betting have changed.
For example, if you bet on NYCFC to beat DC United at +100 before the game, and then NYCFC take a 2-0 lead, the idea is to then bet the correct stake on DC United at their increased odds to lock in a profit.
This way, if DC United came back to win, the bet you placed when they were losing 2-0 would win, whilst your original bet on NYCFC would lose.
Hedge betting also works for parlay betting as well as individual bets. If you have a five-leg parlay bet that has seen the first four legs win, you can hedge your bets against the team/player you need to win for the parlay bet to be successful in order to guarantee a profit.