The Betting Egde Note for week seven: Teams Coming Off The Bye Week. So far in 2018 only had four teams play off the bye but the ‘over’ is 4-0 in those games and the defensive units have struggled allowing an average of 33.5 points per game which includes the effort by the Bears (28) and Buccaneers (34) last Sunday. An additional note to mull, teams with rest are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, with Carolina being the lone winner albeit lucky against the N.Y. Giants in Week 5.
This weekend, the Saints and Lions will be playing with rest.
The Saints are 4-1 ATS since the 2013 season after their bye week and the Saints are 4-1 Over/Under following the by week since 2013. The Saints visit the Ravens who are 7-4 ATS when hosting a team off a bye week. The Ravens are 4-7 Over/Under hosting a team off the bye week. However, todays total of 49 is 9 points higher than the average total of 40 for the Ravens when hosting a team off a bye week. Can the Saints keep the over streak started by last week’s going versus a very stingy Ravens defense? The numbers say no. But thats why the games are played on the field.
The Lions are 4-1 ATS off their bye week since 2013. More interesting is the fact that the Lions are 0-5 Over/Under coming off their bye week since 2013 including last years 20-15 low scoring affair versus the Steelers following the bye week. The Lions visit Miami this week. The Dolphins just defeated the Bears who were off their bye week last week 31-28 in overtime. The total for this game is currently set at 46.5. The question for bettors is will Detroit continue their streak of unders following the bye week.
Think on it, but whatever you do. BET on it!!