NFL WEEK 4 SAINTS VS FALCONS GAME BREAKDOWN AND SCORE PREDICTION

Wed, Sep 25, 2024
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

Saints vs. Falcons: A Betting and Matchup Breakdown

This upcoming Saints vs. Falcons game is shaping up to be an interesting one. The Saints have a 2-1 record while the Falcons are 1-2 and come into this game needing a win to keep pace in their division. The Falcons are slight favorites, but let’s break it down and see where the value lies.

Predicted Score and Winner

My value-based model is predicting a score of 22-18 in favor of the Falcons. This model uses team values to generate point totals, and based on those numbers, Atlanta edges out New Orleans. However, when I factor in my Offensive Power Rating model, things flip. The Saints’ offense is rated 3.5 points higher than Atlanta’s, which tells me that despite the initial projection, New Orleans should come out on top. So, my final prediction? Saints win, 22-18.

Heavy Run Game Ahead

For both teams, the game plan is going to focus heavily on the run, as long as neither team falls behind early. If the game script holds, expect Alvin Kamara to get 22+ carries for the Saints, and Bijon Robinson to do the same for the Falcons. Both teams will look to control the clock and dominate on the ground.

The Spread and Betting Insight

Let’s talk about the betting lines. Initially, Atlanta opened as a -1 favorite, but that number has now grown to -2.5. Meanwhile, the over/under has dropped from 45.5 to 42. This lines up pretty closely with my value-based prediction (40), but remember, my Offensive Power Rating model has me flipping the score in favor of the Saints. A shift from -1 to -2.5 suggests a lot of early money came in on the Falcons. As for the total, the drop from 45.5 to 42 could be a reflection of how both teams will likely rely heavily on their running games, which usually results in lower-scoring contests.

Here’s how I’d approach it: If both of my models had Atlanta winning, I’d recommend hitting the Falcons' moneyline, as it would be a safe bet with a decent payout. But since the Saints come out on top in my final analysis, I’d suggest a safer option—betting the spread and taking the Saints to cover at +2.5. If you’re feeling bold, you could take the Saints at -2.5 and go for the bigger payout, but that’s a higher-risk play.

A Deeper Analysis

Let’s take a closer look at the offensive coordinators for both teams, as they’re pivotal in how this game will unfold.

For the Saints, Klint Kubiak stepped in as offensive coordinator in 2024 after serving as the 49ers’ passing game coordinator. Kubiak brings a wealth of experience from a system that emphasizes both the run and a dynamic passing attack. Expect to see a balanced approach from him in this matchup. His history with the 49ers hints that he’ll try to exploit Atlanta’s defense with a methodical game plan, combining power runs with strategic passing plays to keep the defense on their toes. The Saints will lean heavily on Alvin Kamara, but Kubiak’s approach ensures that they won’t become one-dimensional.

On the other side, Zac Robinson took over as the Falcons’ offensive coordinator this year. Robinson was the Rams' passing game coordinator and QB coach, so he’s worked with high-level quarterbacks in dynamic offenses. His experience with the Rams’ quick-passing, high-efficiency offense should translate into how he structures the Falcons' game plan. While Atlanta will feed Bijon Robinson the ball on the ground, Robinson’s coaching will aim to get Kirk Cousins comfortable with short, high-percentage throws to complement the run game.

Both coordinators will aim to strike a balance between run and pass, but the success of their strategies will hinge on whether they can keep the game competitive. If either team falls behind early, these coordinators will be forced to shift gears—something both are more than capable of doing.

Final Thoughts

This matchup is going to be tight, but my models suggest that the Saints have the edge, especially with the better Offensive Power Rating. As always, take a look at the trends and adjust your bets accordingly, but I feel confident backing the Saints to cover in this one.