WILD CARD ROUND: BRONCOS AT BILLS. SCORE PREDICITON. GAME ANALYSIS.

Wed, Jan 8, 2025
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

Game Overview: Broncos @ Bills

Spread: Bills -8.5
Over/Under: 46.5
Expected Score Prediction: Bills 23, Broncos 21

The Broncos, led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, travel to Buffalo for a high-stakes playoff showdown against Josh Allen and the Bills. While the Bills are clear favorites, the Broncos' opportunistic defense and Nix’s potential for magic have the makings of a Tim Tebow-style upset brewing.

Broncos: A Defense-First Underdog with Upside

The Broncos’ defense has been the backbone of their success, holding similar offenses to an average range of 4-17 points. If Bo Nix can manage the game effectively and avoid turnovers, Denver’s defense could stifle Buffalo just enough to give them a chance. The Broncos’ offense, while inconsistent, has proven capable of breakout performances, exceeding their scoring average 10 times this season.

Key Stats:

Broncos Defense:
- Allows 4-17 points against similar offenses.
- Opponents have exceeded their expected scoring average only 5 times all season.
Broncos Offense:
- Scores 9-42 points against comparable defenses.
- Has exceeded their expected scoring average 10 times, showcasing their ability to rise to the occasion.

X-Factor:

Bo Nix’s composure. If the rookie can channel his inner Tebow and make big plays in critical moments, the Broncos could shock the Bills.

Bills: The Juggernaut at Home

The Bills enter this game as the clear favorites, boasting a high-powered offense that has exceeded expectations 12 times this season. Josh Allen is the superior quarterback in this matchup, and even with two defensive starters sidelined, Buffalo’s defense remains a formidable unit. The Bills' offense consistently operates within a range of 31-39 points, which could be too much for Denver to handle if they fall behind early.

Key Stats:

Bills Defense:
- Allows 6-26 points against similar offenses.
- Opponents have exceeded their expected scoring average only 5 times.
Bills Offense:
- Scores 31-39 points against comparable defenses.
- A consistent scoring machine, exceeding expectations 12 times this season.

X-Factor:

Josh Allen’s ability to dominate through the air and on the ground. His dual-threat capabilities will test Denver’s disciplined defense.

Analysis and Betting Angle

Spread (-8.5 Bills): The spread is large, reflecting Buffalo’s home-field advantage and overall dominance. However, Denver’s defense and Bo Nix’s unpredictability make the Broncos a tempting underdog pick to cover.
Over/Under (46.5): Both teams' defenses have held opponents under expectations consistently. If this becomes a defensive battle, the under could be the safer play.

Prediction:

Final Score: Bills 24, Broncos 20
Best Bet: Broncos +8.5
Leaning: Under 46.5

Josh Allen and the Bills are likely to advance, but don’t count out the Broncos entirely. With their strong defense and a potential breakout performance from rookie Bo Nix, Denver could make this a closer game than expected. While the Bills are the better team on paper, this matchup has the feel of a grind-it-out contest that might come down to the final minutes.

2024 Expected Average Score Prediction Results (week 18 excluded)

DEN defensive points allowed over expected average: +6, +11, +4, +3, +5 (total 29, AVG. 5.8)

DEN defensive points allowed held under expected average: -12, -16, -14, -14, -6, -5, -17, -12, -16, -11, -4 (total -127, avg. -11.54)

DEN offensive points scored over expected average: +23, +17.5, +10, +9, +4.5, +3, +12, +4, +4 (total 87, avg. 9.66)

DEN offensive points scored under expected average: -15.5, -2, -7, -5.5, -7, -6.5, -12.5 (total -55.5, avg. -7.928)

BUF defensive points allowed over expected average: +7, +4.5, +30, +12, +14, +.5 (total 68, 11.333)

BUF defensive points allowed held under expected average: -15, -13, -18, -1, -4.5, -4, -1, -15.5, -10 (total -82, avg. -9.111)

BUF offensive points scored over expected average: +27, +7.5, +9, +20.5, +10.5, +19, +2, +6, +14, +15.5, +2, +3 (total 136, avg. 11.333)

BUF offensive points scored under expected average: -2, -3, -.5, -6 (total -11.5, avg. -2.875)