WILD CARD ROUND: PACKERS AT EAGLES. SCORE PREDICTION. GAMES ANALYSIS.

Tue, Jan 7, 2025
by SetTheNarrative.cappertek.com

Game Overview: Packers @ Eagles

Spread: Eagles -4.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Expected Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Packers 21.5

It’s a clash of two dynamic quarterbacks—Jordan Love versus Jalen Hurts—in what promises to be an electrifying Wild Card showdown in Philadelphia. With both offenses showing the capability to score in bunches and defenses that have had inconsistent moments, this game could come down to execution in the clutch.

Packers: The Underdogs with Upside

Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense have demonstrated an impressive ability to exceed expectations, having outperformed their projected scoring average 10 times this season. However, they face a tough Eagles defense that rarely allows opponents to break the mold. For the Packers to pull off the upset, they’ll need to capitalize on early opportunities and keep the game close to utilize their star running back Josh Jacobs, who is in line for 22+ carries.

Key Stats:

Packers Defense:
- Allows between 16-34 points against similar offenses.
- Opponents have exceeded their expected scoring average 7 times, often by more than a touchdown.
Packers Offense:
- Scores between 19-29 points against comparable defenses.
- Has exceeded their expected scoring average 10 times, with 7 games surpassing expectations by more than a touchdown.

X-Factor:

The Packers’ ability to stay within striking distance. If they fall behind early, the Eagles’ pass rush could make life difficult for Love.

Eagles: The Favorites with Firepower

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offense are in peak form, having exceeded their projected scoring average 11 times, with 7 of those games by a margin of 10+ points. Even without two key offensive players, Hurts and the Eagles' dynamic weapons, including Saquon Barkley in a dual-threat role, give them an edge. The Eagles’ defense, meanwhile, has been consistently tough, allowing opponents to surpass expectations only 4 times all season.

Key Stats:

Eagles Defense:
- Allows between 9-29 points against similar offenses.
- Opponents have scored above their average only 4 times, showcasing their discipline.
Eagles Offense:
- Scores between 25-36 points against comparable defenses.
- A consistent scoring machine, exceeding expectations in 11 games.

X-Factor:

Saquon Barkley’s versatility. His ability to line up as a receiver and exploit mismatches in the Packers’ linebacking corps could create major problems for Green Bay.

Analysis and Betting Angle

Spread (-4.5 Eagles): The Eagles’ ability to consistently outperform expectations makes them a strong candidate to cover the spread, especially at home. However, the Packers’ offense is dangerous enough to keep this game closer than expected.
Over/Under (45.5): With both offenses capable of scoring and the Packers’ defense struggling to contain top-tier offenses, the over is an enticing play.
Last Meeting: The expected average score was GB 20 - 19 PHI. The final score was GB 29 - 34 PHI.

Prediction:

Final Score: Eagles 28, Packers 23
Best Bet: Over 45.5
Leaning: Packers +4.5

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are the more complete team, but Jordan Love’s ability to exceed expectations combined with a potent rushing attack could keep Green Bay in the game longer than anticipated. This matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair, with the Eagles ultimately pulling away late to advance.

2024 Expected Average Score Prediction Results (week 18 excluded)

Packers defensive points allowed over expected average: +2, +14.5, +2, +12, +15, +12, +10 (total 67.5, avg. 9.64)

Packers defensive points allowed held under expected average: -15, -14, -3, -25.5, -13, -1, -9, -16 (total -96.5, avg. -12.06)

Packers offensive points scored over expected average: +12, +1, +9, +8.5, +19, +3, +13.5, +9, +2, +7, +5 (total 89, avg. 8.09)

Packers offensive points scored under expected average: -5, -12, 4, -3, -1 (total -25, avg. -5)

Eagles defensive points allowed over expected average: +4, +9, +.5, +13, +18.5 (total 45 , avg. 9 )

Eagles defensive points allowed held under expected average: -2, -3, -5, -3.5, -13, -4, -4.5, -1, -13.5, -14, -13 (total -76.5, avg. -6.95)

Eagles offensive points scored over expected average: +8.5, +15, +4, +18, +12.5, +12, +6, +11, +5, +11, +4 (total 107, avg. 9.72)

Eagles offensive points scored under expected average: -1, -2, -2, -8 (total -13, avg. -3.25)