Making NFL or College Football Smart Plays

Sun, Sep 11, 2022

In the sport betting industry, browsing for good expected value (EV) is very under appreciated. Handicapping games have plenty of sport avenues and angles to spot value. The only way to find good expected value (EV) is checking your sport lines throughout the early stage of the week. Example: America football is a great way to find value on Monday. Line makers in Las Vegas are creating lines for that upcoming week. You probably asking why? Lets me throw another example out there. Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings. Monday morning opening line has (Road Team) Texans at +7 and the (Home Team) Vikings at plus -7. There are multiple ways that the lines can move up or down. For instance, an injured or (illness) star player report, bad weather at a stadium with no dome or the way the market is adjusting throughout the money and ticket counts. In this example, value would be the key number (7). Remember, you are not betting teams, you are betting numbers. Laying the 7 with the Viking would be ideal. Know if it moves up or down and adds a hook at the end of 7. Which every sport bettor hates the hook (7.5). The hook has made lots of bookies and sport books wealthy. The hook plays a major role in the betting industry. Know if the number goes down 6.5 then it would be ideal to take the Vikings at home. If the number goes up, the smart play will be the Texans a 7.5. Know the Viking will have to cover the spread by 8 and it’s a 2 possession game. Know, I know what you are thinking. What about the safety of an 2-points conversion? Good question. Those come on rare occasion. It’s hard to plug those variables into finding value. If the number stays the same 7. Let’s assume the game ends 27–20, it doesn’t matter what teams have what. It’s become a no action wager and you will get your money back. Just keep in mind that these things take time to breakdown and that is where the sport handicappers come into play. They will find value through the day while you are at your regular day routine or perhaps sleeping. Handicappers work hard to get good quality picks a try to provide good service for their clients.