Houston at LA Dodgers
Sun, Jun 25, 2023
by
UDToday.cappertek.com
Here is my prediction for the game between the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Factor | My reasoning | Model predictions |
Batting average | Houston has a better batting average than the Dodgers. | Poisson regression model: 5.9 runs scored by the Astros, 5.1 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 58% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 53% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 55% chance of the Astros winning. |
On-base percentage | Houston has a better on-base percentage than the Dodgers. | Poisson regression model: 6 runs scored by the Astros, 5.2 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 60% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 55% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 57% chance of the Astros winning. |
Slugging percentage | Houston has a better slugging percentage than the Dodgers. | Poisson regression model: 6.1 runs scored by the Astros, 5.3 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 62% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 57% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 59% chance of the Astros winning. |
Starting pitcher rating | Houston has a better starting pitcher than the Dodgers. | Poisson regression model: 6.2 runs scored by the Astros, 5.4 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 64% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 59% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 61% chance of the Astros winning. |
Weather rating | The weather is expected to be fair, so this factor is neutral. | Poisson regression model: 6.1 runs scored by the Astros, 5.3 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 62% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 57% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 59% chance of the Astros winning. |
Home field advantage rating | The Dodgers have a slight home field advantage. | Poisson regression model: 6 runs scored by the Astros, 5.2 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 60% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 55% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 57% chance of the Astros winning. |
Bullpen strength | Houston has a slightly better bullpen than the Dodgers. | Poisson regression model: 6.1 runs scored by the Astros, 5.3 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 62% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 57% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 59% chance of the Astros winning. |
Opposing bullpen strength | The Dodgers have a slightly better bullpen than the Astros. | Poisson regression model: 6 runs scored by the Astros, 5.2 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 60% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 55% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 57% chance of the Astros winning. |
Stadium dimensions | The stadium dimensions are neutral. | Poisson regression model: 6.1 runs scored by the Astros, 5.3 runs scored by the Dodgers. Logistic regression model: 62% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 57% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 59% chance of the Astros winning. |
Prediction: Houston wins 6-5
Overall: I think the Houston Astros will win this game by a score of 6-5. The Astros have the better team, and the models all predict that they will win. The Dodgers have a slight home field advantage, but I think the Astros will be able to overcome it and win the game.
Best wager: I think the best wager to make on this game is the Astros moneyline. The Astros are currently +108 on most sportsbooks, which means that if you bet $100 on the Astros and they win, you will win $108. The Astros have a 55% chance of winning the game, so this is a good value wager.