Houston at St. Louis
Wed, Jun 28, 2023
by
UDToday.cappertek.com
Here is my prediction for the game between the Houston Astros and the St. Louis Cardinals.
| Factor | My Reasoning | Model Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | The Astros have a significantly better batting average than the Cardinals. | Poisson regression model: 7.0 runs scored by the Astros, 5.4 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 74% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 68% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 71% chance of the Astros winning. |
| On-Base Percentage | The Astros have a significantly better on-base percentage than the Cardinals. | Poisson regression model: 7.1 runs scored by the Astros, 5.5 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 75% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 69% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 72% chance of the Astros winning. |
| Slugging Percentage | The Astros have a significantly better slugging percentage than the Cardinals. | Poisson regression model: 7.2 runs scored by the Astros, 5.6 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 76% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 70% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 73% chance of the Astros winning. |
| Starting Pitcher Rating | Cristian Javier is a better starting pitcher than Miles Mikolas. | Poisson regression model: 7.3 runs scored by the Astros, 5.7 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 77% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 71% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 74% chance of the Astros winning. |
| Weather Rating | The weather is expected to be fair, so this factor is neutral. | Poisson regression model: 7.2 runs scored by the Astros, 5.6 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 76% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 70% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 73% chance of the Astros winning. |
| Home Field Advantage Rating | The Cardinals have a slight home field advantage. | Poisson regression model: 7.1 runs scored by the Astros, 5.5 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 75% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 69% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 72% chance of the Astros winning. |
| Bullpen Strength | The Astros have a slightly better bullpen than the Cardinals. | Poisson regression model: 7.2 runs scored by the Astros, 5.6 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 76% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 70% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 73% chance of the Astros winning. |
| Opposing Bullpen Strength | The Cardinals have a slightly better bullpen than the Astros. | Poisson regression model: 7.1 runs scored by the Astros, 5.5 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 75% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 69% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 72% chance of the Astros winning. |
| Stadium Dimensions | The stadium dimensions are neutral. | Poisson regression model: 7.2 runs scored by the Astros, 5.6 runs scored by the Cardinals. Logistic regression model: 76% chance of the Astros winning. Decision tree model: 70% chance of the Astros winning. Bayesian model: 73% chance of the Astros winning. |
| Prediction | Houston Astros win 7-5 |
Overall, I think the Houston Astros have a very good chance of winning this game by a score of 7-5. The Astros have a much better team than the Cardinals, and the models all predict that the Astros have a 76% chance of winning.