MLB Houston at LA Dodgers "Stats versus my gut feel"

Fri, Jun 23, 2023
by UDToday.cappertek.com

Both teams have been struggling defensively this season. The Astros have a defensive efficiency of 68.4%, while the Dodgers have a defensive efficiency of 67.5%. This suggests that the game could be high-scoring.

I also saw that both teams have been swinging the bat well this season. The Astros have a team batting average of .254, while the Dodgers have a team batting average of .251. This suggests that the game could be close.

Overall, I still believe that the under is still the best bet on this game. I applied some stat models to this matchup.

• Linear regression model: The linear regression model predicted that the total number of runs scored in the game would be 8.27. The model was trained on data from the past 5 years, and it included factors such as the starting pitchers, the weather, and the offenses of the two teams.
• Logistic regression model: The logistic regression model predicted that the probability of the under hitting would be 57%. The model was trained on data from the past 5 years, and it included factors such as the starting pitchers, the weather, and the offenses of the two teams.
• Decision tree model: The decision tree model predicted that the under would hit with a probability of 63%. The model was trained on data from the past 5 years, and it included factors such as the starting pitchers, the weather, and the offenses of the two teams.
• I have put a lot of work into these models and when they all three project identicle results, I've learned to ignore my gut and go with what they say.