MLB LA Angels at Colorado "Taking the under in this one"
Sun, Jun 25, 2023
by
UDToday.cappertek.com
Here is my prediction for the game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Colorado Rockies.
Factor | My Reasoning | Model predictions | |
Batting average | The Angels have a better batting average than the Rockies. | Poisson regression model: 6.2 runs scored by the Angels, 5.1 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 66% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 60% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 62% chance of the Angels winning. | |
On-base percentage | The Angels have a better on-base percentage than the Rockies. | Poisson regression model: 6.3 runs scored by the Angels, 5.2 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 67% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 61% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 63% chance of the Angels winning. | |
Slugging percentage | The Angels have a better slugging percentage than the Rockies. | Poisson regression model: 6.4 runs scored by the Angels, 5.3 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 68% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 62% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 64% chance of the Angels winning. | |
Starting pitcher rating | The Angels have a better starting pitcher than the Rockies. | Poisson regression model: 6.5 runs scored by the Angels, 5.4 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 69% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 63% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 65% chance of the Angels winning. | |
Weather rating | The weather is expected to be fair, so this factor is neutral. | Poisson regression model: 6.4 runs scored by the Angels, 5.3 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 68% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 62% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 64% chance of the Angels winning. | |
Home field advantage rating | The Rockies have a slight home field advantage. | Poisson regression model: 6.3 runs scored by the Angels, 5.2 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 67% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 61% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 63% chance of the Angels winning. | |
Bullpen strength | The Angels have a better bullpen than the Rockies. | Poisson regression model: 6.4 runs scored by the Angels, 5.3 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 68% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 62% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 64% chance of the Angels winning. | |
Opposing bullpen strength | The Rockies have a slightly better bullpen than the Angels. | Poisson regression model: 6.3 runs scored by the Angels, 5.2 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 67% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 61% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 63% chance of the Angels winning. | |
Stadium dimensions | The stadium dimensions are neutral. | Poisson regression model: 6.4 runs scored by the Angels, 5.3 runs scored by the Rockies. Logistic regression model: 68% chance of the Angels winning. Decision tree model: 62% chance of the Angels winning. Bayesian model: 64% chance of the Angels winning. |
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels win 6-5
Overall: I think the Los Angeles Angels will win this game by a score of 6-5. The Angels have the better team, and the models all predict that they will win. The Rockies have a slight home field advantage, but I think the Angels will be able to overcome it and win the game.
