TAMPA BAY at ARIZONA
Wed, Jun 28, 2023
by
UDToday.cappertek.com
Here is the prediction for the Tampa Bay vs. Arizona game:
| Factor | My Reasoning | Model Predictions |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | The Tampa Bay Rays have a slightly better batting average than the Arizona Diamondbacks. | Poisson regression model: 5.7 runs scored by the Rays, 5.3 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 69% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 63% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 67% chance of the Rays winning. |
| On-Base Percentage | The Tampa Bay Rays have a slightly better on-base percentage than the Arizona Diamondbacks. | Poisson regression model: 5.8 runs scored by the Rays, 5.4 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 70% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 64% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 68% chance of the Rays winning. |
| Slugging Percentage | The Tampa Bay Rays have a slightly better slugging percentage than the Arizona Diamondbacks. | Poisson regression model: 5.9 runs scored by the Rays, 5.5 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 71% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 65% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 69% chance of the Rays winning. |
| Starting Pitcher Rating | Zach Eflin is a better starting pitcher than Zach Davies. | Poisson regression model: 5.9 runs scored by the Rays, 5.5 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 71% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 65% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 69% chance of the Rays winning. |
| Weather Rating | The weather is expected to be hot and humid, but the dome will be closed, so this factor is neutral. | Poisson regression model: 5.9 runs scored by the Rays, 5.5 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 71% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 65% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 69% chance of the Rays winning. |
| Home Field Advantage Rating | The Rays have a slight home field advantage. | Poisson regression model: 5.9 runs scored by the Rays, 5.5 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 71% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 65% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 69% chance of the Rays winning. |
| Visiting Team Recent Bullpen Performance | The Arizona Diamondbacks have a slightly worse recent bullpen performance than the Tampa Bay Rays. | Poisson regression model: 5.9 runs scored by the Rays, 5.5 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 71% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 65% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 69% chance of the Rays winning. |
| Home Team Recent Bullpen Performance | The Tampa Bay Rays have a slightly better recent bullpen performance than the Arizona Diamondbacks. | Poisson regression model: 5.9 runs scored by the Rays, 5.5 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 72% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 66% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 70% chance of the Rays winning. |
| Stadium Dimensions | The stadium dimensions are neutral. | Poisson regression model: 5.9 runs scored by the Rays, 5.5 runs scored by the Diamondbacks. Logistic regression model: 71% chance of the Rays winning. Decision tree model: 65% chance of the Rays winning. Bayesian model: 69% chance of the Rays winning. |
| Prediction | Tampa Bay Rays win 6-4 |
Overall, I think the Tampa Bay Rays still have a good chance of winning this game by a score of 6-4. The models all predict that the Rays have a 71% chance of winning with the dome closed.
The dome will help to keep the temperature and humidity down, which will benefit both teams. However, the Rays still have a slight advantage, as they have a better team overall.