MLB Free Pick July 1: YANKEES (COLE) AT CARDINALS (FLAHERTY) (BET NOW, +CLV EXPECTED)

Fri, Jun 30, 2023
by Ztwar.cappertek.com

PICK: NEW YORK YANKEES (COLE) +100

RISK AMOUNT: 1 UNIT

PICK WRITE-UP: This is currently priced at Yankees +100 at DraftKings. Recommend betting this ASAP as we expect it to move.  Our model has the Yankees priced at -139. Gerrit Cole is the superior starting pitcher expected to surrender 3.3 runs/9 innings compared to 4.4 for Faherty and go deeper at 6.1 innings pitched per game compared to 5.3 for Flaherty. The Yankees also have the more rested, better bullpen. The offenses are similar with a slight edge to the Cardinals with Aaron Judge injured, but it's not enough to outweigh the strong pitching advantage for the Yankees. We expect the Yankees to close as favorites and get value on this pick. 

EDIT: The Yankees moved to -130 favorites before they decided to start Severino instead of Cole after yesterday’s rainout. I don’t recommend this bet anymore.