MLB July 9: 4 Plays to Beat the Closing Lines

Sat, Jul 8, 2023

Here are 4 plays for July 9 that we like to beat the closing lines:

Phillies (Nola) +105 vs Marlins (Luzardo):  Phillies are the hotter team with the better offense.  Starting pitching and bullpen projections are similar.   Our model has the Phillies a -120 favorite.

Rays (Eflin) -115 vs Braves (Elder):  Rays have starting pitching advantage with Eflin.  Elder has overperformed with a K-BB of 4.4 vs 7.9 for Efflin.  Our model has the Rays a -130 favorite.

Twins (Ryan) -115 vs Orioles (Gibson):  Twins have starting pitching advantage with Ryan.  For example, Ryan has 8.6 K-BB and 21% swinging strike rate compared to Gibson with 3.8 K-BB and 17% swinging strike rate.  Offenses and bullpens are about the same but Minnesota's bullpen is more rested.  Our model has the Twins a -125 favorite.

Rockies (Freeland) vs Giants (Webb) Over 7.5 -110:  Wind is forecast to be blowing out at 22 mph.  Our model has this total at 8.5.