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Since 1989 Cajun Sports has been the preferred destination for serious sports investors looking for comprehensive statistics and systems tailored for wagering against the point spread combined with effective betting strategies that consistently defeat the Vegas Line. Cajun Sports Best Bets are supported by logical reasoning, solid analysis and exclusive information. Cajun Sports Handicapper is a Certified SDQL Master which gives Cajun Sports clients a huge advantage when investing in the global sports market. Cajun Sports is the 2009 Vegas Wise Guys Contest Champion. The Vegas Wise Guys contest is an invitation ONLY contest for 50 of the nation's top professional sports handicappers. Success is where preparation meets opportunity. 

 

 

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PICKS FOR SATURDAY, APRIL 08, 2017 [refresh]
4/8/2017

6:10 PM EST
MLB
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS. TAMPA BAY RAYS

PICK: TAMPA BAY RAYS (-114)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Toronto Blue Jays are in Cigar City taking on the hometown Rays at the Trop on Saturday night. These two are tied at a game apiece following games 1 and 2 of their four-game set having been played the last two days. The Blue Jays will send Aaron Sanchez to the bump he is coming off a 15-2 season in 2016 so expectations are extremely high for this youngster who is only 24 years old. Sanchez has been suffering from a finger issue and this will be his first start of the season. Sanchez recently went through a throwing session without any issues and should be ready to go tonight. He actually suffered the injury to his finger during the spring where he was struggling with an 8.44 ERA in just 10 2/3 innings. The Rays will send Chris Archer to the hill with his 1-0 record and an ERA of 2.57 (WHIP 1.143) on the season. Archer pitched well in his opener limiting the Yankees to two runs on seven hits with five strikeouts and a lone walk. We get decent line value with Archer here because he is coming off a horrible season in 2016 but a closer look at his starts we see the Rays did not give him much support. We know the Jays have lost twelve of their last fifteen games when facing a starter whose WHIP is 1.15 or lower. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.70 runs in favor of the boys from Cigar City. The SPMatrix has Chris Archer with a 6.73 average while Aaron Sanchez has an average of 5.98. It is difficult to rate an injury especially when teams are unwilling to give out much information they give the minimum to the public and this can make it very difficult to determine if the player is really ready to play. In this particular case the Rays and Blue Jays qualify in the reverse momentum index which helps manage the injury in our power index and overall pitching matrix. The Reverse Momentum Indicator Matrix has a play on the Rays while it calls for a play against the Blue Jays this helps negate the questions about Aaron Sanchez’s injury. The BbMomentum Indicator projects the Rays with solid numbers in this matrix with an average of .606 while the BbMomentum Indicator has Toronto in negative territory with an average of .475. A check of our MLB System database we have three active league-wide systems for this contest. We want to play ON MLB home teams coming off a game as an underdog in which they scored in at least four separate innings. These home teams are 228-208 SU for a profit of +1612 Units. We want to play ON MLB home teams coming off a win in which they came back from a deficit. These home teams are 537-391 for 57.9 percent winners and a profit of +5582 Units. We want to play ON MLB home favorites coming off a game as an underdog in which they came back from a deficit. These home favorites are 67-40 for 62.6 percent winners and +879 units. The combination of all these factors point to only one outcome and that is a victory for the boys from Cigar City. Rays
PICK MADE ON 4/8/2017 AT 2:08 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/8/2017 AT 10:39 PM EST
+4.39
[report pick]
4/8/2017

7:08 PM EST
NBA
MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

PICK: UNDER 208.5 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 4/8/2017 AT 3:34 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/8/2017 AT 9:40 PM EST
+4.09
[report pick]
4/8/2017

8:10 PM EST
MLB
CLEVELAND INDIANS VS. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

PICK: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (-102)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Arizona Diamondbacks took Game One of this three-game set on Friday night winning 7 to 3. Arizona has come from behind in each of their four victories this season. They have a much different attitude under new manager Torey Lovullo. The Diamondbacks are hitting the ball and that has played a big role in their victories. The Indians will send Trevor Bauer to the bump for his first start of the 2017 campaign. The Diamondbacks will counter with former CY Young winner Zack Greinke who is making his second start of the young season. He was the opening day starter for Arizona went five innings allowing four hits and giving up two runs in a no-decision. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.56 runs in favor of the Diamondbacks. The SPMatrix has Zack Greinke with a 6.49 average while Trevor Bauer has an average of 5.22. The BbMomentum Indicator projects the Diamondbacks with solid numbers in this matrix with an average of .642 while the BbMomentum Indicator has Cleveland hanging onto positive territory with an average of .555. A check of our powerful database reveals a league-wide system that is active for this contest. We want to play ON MLB home teams coming off a win in which they came back from a deficit. This system has a record of 537-391 for 57.9 percent winners and a profit of +5582 Units. With solid support from the offensive side and a former CY Young winner on the bump we will play the Diamondbacks on Saturday night in the desert. Diamondbacks
PICK MADE ON 4/8/2017 AT 2:09 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/8/2017 AT 11:59 PM EST
+4.90
[report pick]
4/8/2017

8:10 PM EST
MLB
CLEVELAND INDIANS VS. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

PICK: UNDER 9.5 (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The LA Dodgers are in the Mile High City for a three-game weekend set and after dropping Game One on Friday 2 to 1 they look to rebound tonight. Colorado finds itself atop the NL West after five games despite getting almost no production from the top three hitters in the order (Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu and Carlos Gonzalez are combined 8-for-58 this season) and totaling five runs over its last three games. One reason for the Rockies' surprising start has been their bullpen, which has allowed only one run and six hits over 15 1/3 innings in their four wins. The Rockies will send Jon Gray to the bump while the Dodgers counter with Clayton Kershaw. The Under has cashed in the last five in the Mile High City overall. The Rockies are 1-6 Under at home versus teams with a winning record. The Rockies are 3-7 Under when their opponent allowed two or fewer runs in their last game. The Under has been the play in the four against the Dodgers when Gray starts for the Rockies. The Under is 5-15-1 in Kershaw’s last twenty-one starts overall. The Dodgers are 2-10-1 Under in Kershaw’s last thirteen road starts. The Under is 7-18-2 Under the last twenty-seven Kershaw road starts versus winning teams. The Under has cashed in thirteen of the last seventeen meetings between the two clubs. The Rockies are 14-27-2 Under since last July when playing in the Mile High City. This matchup qualifies in our MLB Total Matrix as an Under selection with a game total run average of 6.93 runs. The BbTPR Index has Clayton Kershaw with a -2.08 run average below the number posted by the oddsmakers. Rockies starter Jon Gray has a -1.67 run average below the posted total set by the oddsmakers for tonight’s game. The fundamentals, technical and situational elements all point to only one outcome and that is the low side of the oddsmakers number on Saturday night so we will play the Under in the Mile High City. Under
PICK MADE ON 4/8/2017 AT 2:10 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/9/2017 AT 12:01 AM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR THURSDAY, APRIL 06, 2017 [refresh]
4/6/2017

7:08 PM EST
NBA
MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. INDIANA PACERS

PICK: OVER 203.5 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 4/6/2017 AT 6:13 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/6/2017 AT 9:41 PM EST
-4.50
[report pick]
4/6/2017

7:10 PM EST
MLB
ATLANTA BRAVES VS. NEW YORK METS

PICK: UNDER 7 (+100)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 4/6/2017 AT 6:13 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/6/2017 AT 9:59 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
4/6/2017

8:10 PM EST
MLB
SEATTLE MARINERS VS. HOUSTON ASTROS

PICK: HOUSTON ASTROS (-166)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 4/6/2017 AT 6:14 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/6/2017 AT 11:36 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
4/6/2017

9:40 PM EST
MLB
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

PICK: UNDER 9 (+105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 4/6/2017 AT 6:14 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/7/2017 AT 1:17 AM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY, APRIL 05, 2017 [refresh]
4/5/2017

7:05 PM EST
MLB
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS. BALTIMORE ORIOLES

PICK: BALTIMORE ORIOLES (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Blue Jays and Orioles will meet at Camden Yards on Wednesday night in the second game of their two-game mini-series. In the first game, Baltimore grabbed a 3 to 2 victory in 11 innings. Lefty J.A Happ will get the ball for the Blue Jays on Wednesday night after a twenty win and four loss season with an ERA of 3.18 in 2016. The Blue Jays are hoping that will become the norm for him but we believe he will come back down to earth this season and that begins tonight. In the loss to the Orioles in Game One on Wednesday night the Toronto hitters three thru six were an awful 0-17 at the plate. Although the Blue Jays slightly outhit the Orioles 11 to 9 in the loss Orioles hitters one thru six collected at least one hit in the victory. Orioles Mark Trumbo was the hero in Game One with a walk-off solo home run which was one of his two hits in the game and the home run came when it was most needed to pull off the victory. Baltimore’s latest acquisition catcher Wellington Castillo also had two hits for the Orioles in the win. The O’s will send youngster Dylan Bundy to the bump with high expectations hoping he will finally have that breakout season like they believe he can. Bundy was the fourth overall pick in the 2011 Major League Baseball Draft. The SPMatrix has Dylan Bundy with a 6.22 average while J.A. Happ has an average of 6.04. Those averages come from our Starting Pitcher Matrix which grades on a scale of 1.00 to 12.00 of course the closer to 12.00 the better the starter for this situation. For the early part of the season the SPMatrix averages will be in the mid-range with a lot of them coming in with averages of 5.50 to 7.50 as each starter gets more starts those averages will increase or decrease depending on their performances on the bump. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.47 runs for the home team in this contest. The Blue Jays are 1-4 versus teams with a winning record. Toronto has struggled against right-handed starters posting a record of 1-4 their last five and if we put the Jays on the road versus a right-handed starter their record is 1-5 their last six south of the border. The Orioles are a perfect 4-0 their last four at home and 8-2 in Game Two of a series. Baltimore is 6-1 their last seven on the real stuff and Bundy is 7-3 his last ten starts on grass. Finally we note the Orioles are 11-4 their last fifteen at home versus teams with a road win percentage of .400 or less and they are 8-3 their last eleven games overall. With significant support for the home team and solid support on the bump and at the plate we will back the Orioles on Wednesday night. This is a situation where the line movement could make our play ON team the underdog or a small favorite in either case we are backing the Orioles here.
PICK MADE ON 4/5/2017 AT 5:21 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/5/2017 AT 9:57 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
4/5/2017

8:10 PM EST
MLB
SEATTLE MARINERS VS. HOUSTON ASTROS

PICK: HOUSTON ASTROS (-112)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Astros and Mariners face off for the third game of their four-game set in Houston on Wednesday night. Houston has jumped out to a two-game lead by winning the first two games of this series and we have support for them to cash the ticket again on Wednesday night. The Mariners offense has been non-existent for the most part in this series and that has led to their demise losing the first two games. In the first game Seattle had three hits leaving seven on base and losing the game 3 to 0. In the second game Seattle had seven hits and left ten runners on base losing 2 to 1. Even with the increase in hits and runners on base in the second game Seattle just could not put anything together to really threaten the Astros even though the final score was really close the Mariners are really struggling when it comes to plating runs. The Mariners will send left-hander James Paxton to the bump for his first start of the season coming off a 6-7 record with an ERA of 3.79 last season. Paxton can bring the heat averaging 96.8 miles per hour on his fastball last season. Paxton ended his 2016 campaign on the road in Houston getting the victory giving up three runs over five innings of work. James Paxton even with that late season victory over the Astros is only 1-2 with an ERA of 4.88 in four career starts versus Houston. The Astros will send right-hander Charlie Morton to the hill for his first major league appearance since April of 2016 where he suffered a season-ending torn hamstring. Our SPbMatrix (Starting Pitcher & Bullpen) has the Houston Astros with an overall average of 117.16 while Seattle comes into this contest with an overall average of 90.58. That is a huge pitching differential overall this Matrix includes the games starters as well as each teams bullpen. Our BbTPR Index (Baseball Team Performance Ratings Index) the Astros with a 1.61 run advantage over the Mariners on Wednesday night. Seattle is 5-14 in Paxtons last nineteen starts on grass. Seattle is 3-7 in Paxtons last ten road starts versus a team with a winning record. The Astros are 13-6 their last nineteen games versus left-handed starters and 4-1 their last five at home versus teams with a road win percentage of .400 or less. We also get some help from the home plate umpire as Doug Eddings has seen the last four home teams win when he was behind home plate. We look for Seattle’s struggles to continue while the Astros cash another winning ticket in Houston on Wednesday night. Lay the short price here
PICK MADE ON 4/5/2017 AT 5:22 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/6/2017 AT 12:58 AM EST
+4.46
[report pick]
PICKS FOR TUESDAY, APRIL 04, 2017 [refresh]
4/4/2017

7:40 PM EST
MLB
COLORADO ROCKIES VS. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

PICK: UNDER 8 (-125)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: This game gave us our Monday Total Play of the Day which was the only loss we suffered on our MLB Best Bet Report with the Rockies winning 8 to 5 and sailing Over the Under we had played. We are coming back again with a stronger play on this total based on our numbers in the current situation. The Rockies will send Tyler Anderson to the bump while the Brewers hang their 2nd game hopes on Zach Davies. In 2016 the Brewers averaged 4.14 runs per game, ranking them 25th overall, and posted a .244 team batting average. Milwaukee’s pitching showed improvement as the season progressed last year, finishing with a 4.08 team ERA, placing them 13th overall. Colorado’s Tyler Anderson had a very strong rookie campaign, featuring a 3.54 ERA along with a 1.28 WHIP and a 5-6 record in 114.1 innings of work. Anderson has made one career start against the Brewers and allowed just two runs in five innings of work. This matchup qualifies in our MLB Total Matrix as an Under selection with a game total run average of 6.0 runs. The BbTPR Index has Tyler Anderson with a -3.100 run average below the number posted by the oddsmakers. The Brewers starter Zach Davies has a -2.900 run average below the posted total set by the oddsmakers for tonight’s game. The Brewers are 2-7 Under after allowing five or more runs their last trip to the diamond. Milwaukee is 4-10 Under when their opponent scored five or more runs their last trip to the diamond. The Rockies are 0-4 Under when facing an opponent who allowed five or more runs their last outing. Colorado is 1-4 Under after scoring five or more runs in their last game. The Rockies are 1-5 Under after a game in which they allowed five or more runs. We get some help from behind home plate in this one with Wendelstedt calling balls and strikes he is 0-4 Under the last four behind home plate when the Brewers are involved. Over all Wendelstedt has been an Under umpire with a record of 15-31-5 Under his last fifty-one behind home plate
PICK MADE ON 4/4/2017 AT 2:31 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/4/2017 AT 11:39 PM EST
-4.50
[report pick]
4/4/2017

8:05 PM EST
MLB
CLEVELAND INDIANS VS. TEXAS RANGERS

PICK: CLEVELAND INDIANS (-140)

RISK: 5 UNITS
BET NOW!
CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: Cleveland took Game One of their three-game series against the Rangers in Texas on Monday night. We expect a similar result tonight with the Indians holding a huge advantage on the bump and we are getting a ton of value here. The line for this game at the time of this writing was Cleveland -136 with Carrasco on the bump for the Indians and Perez on the bump for Texas. Our line on this game has Cleveland -194 so there is solid money line value here. The Indians are 20-8 in Carrasco’s last twenty-eight road starts. Cleveland is 12-5 their last 17 Carrasco starts when they are favored by -110 to -150. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.78 runs for the road favorite in this contest. The SPMatrix has Carlos Carrasco with a 8.6 average while Martin Perez has an average of 5.32. The BbPPI (Baseball Pitcher Performance Index) has Carrasco with an average of 128 which is very good and well above the league average of 100 which ranks him fourth out of the 155 starting pitchers in the league. The news is bad for the Rangers because their starter Martin Perez comes in with an average of only 88 which ranks him 134 out of 155 pitchers. A check of our powerful MLB database we have a tech element on the Indians that tells us to play ON the Cleveland Indians following a game in which their starter worked no more than seven innings and the teams combined to use eight or nine pitchers overall. Cleveland is 21-4 for eighty-four percent winners and a profit of +1826 Units. We want to play this one early because the number will go up so do not wait to play this game get on it early. Lay the chalk with the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday night.
PICK MADE ON 4/4/2017 AT 7:54 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/5/2017 AT 5:18 PM EST
+3.57
[report pick]
4/4/2017

8:10 PM EST
MLB
SEATTLE MARINERS VS. HOUSTON ASTROS

PICK: HOUSTON ASTROS (-159)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The odds in this game have moved against us when we started working on this game last night and early this morning the Astros were -130 this is common especially this time of the season. Our top play for Tuesday was suffering the same fate but at a much faster rate that is why we released that play last night to all of our MLB clients. We try to get them out in front of these moves but it is difficult especially when we are waiting on lineups and changes. We still like the Astros here we just do not like laying heavy chalk especially when it reaches 150 or more. But a win is a win and that is what we expect tonight from the Houston Astros. Houston got an outstanding season-opening performance on Monday from starter Dallas Keuchel and a pair of relievers who combined to throw a three-hit shutout against the visiting Seattle Mariners. The Mariners will send RH Hisashi Iwakuma to the bump with his 2016 record of 16-12 with an ERA of 4.12. Those sixteen wins were a career best for him but it is worth noting that he has yet to finish a season with a losing record in the majors amassing fourteen wins in three of his five years in the Bigs. The 35 year old starter struggled mightily in the spring posting an ERA of 7.13. The Seattle manager and coaches were concerned even though they of course would not admit it in front of the cameras. The Astros will send right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. to the hill with his 6-5 record in 2016 and an ERA of 3.22 on the year. McCullers also struggled in the spring with an ERA of 7.31 after ending his season last year prematurely due to a severe elbow sprain the manager and coaching staff were not that worried about his spring performance as he worked off the rust. The SPMatrix has Lance McCullers Jr. with a 6.46 average while Hisashi Iwakuma has an average of 5.88. Those averages come from our Starting Pitcher Matrix which grades on a scale of 1.00 to 12.00 of course the closer to 12.00 the better the starter for this situation. For the early part of the season the SPMatrix averages will be in the mid-range with a lot of them coming in with averages of 5.50 to 7.50 as each starter gets more starts those averages will increase or decrease depending on their performances on the bump. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.39 runs for the home favorite in this contest. The BbPPI (Baseball Pitcher Performance Index) has McCullers with an average of 116 which is good and above the league average of 100. The news is not that bad for the Mariners but it’s not great either with Hisashi Iwakuma’s BbPPI average of 97 which is below that league average of 100. The combination of all these key factors points to only one outcome and that is a win by the Astros on Tuesday night as they take a 2-0 lead in their four-game set with the Mariners. Lay the chalk
PICK MADE ON 4/4/2017 AT 2:32 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/4/2017 AT 11:17 PM EST
+2.83
[report pick]
PICKS FOR MONDAY, APRIL 03, 2017 [refresh]
4/3/2017

2:10 PM EST
MLB
COLORADO ROCKIES VS. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

PICK: COLORADO ROCKIES (-122)

RISK: 4 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Colorado Rockies are in Milwaukee for a four-game series against the hometown Brewers with the first pitch in Game One scheduled for 2:10 PM Eastern Monday afternoon. This game has given us our first Double Play which means we have a money line selection and a total selection on this contest. The Rockies finished the 2016 campaign in third place in the NL West with a record below the Mendoza line and missed the playoffs. The Brewers didn’t fare any better they finished a distant fourth place in the NL Central missing the playoffs as well. Milwaukee owned this series last season winning five of the six meetings including a 3-0 sweep in late August. Milwaukee will hand the ball to Junior Guerra who made twenty starts last season with a 9-3 record and an ERA of 2.81 with a WHIP of 1.126 over 121.2 innings of work. Guerra went 3-3 with an ERA of 3.56 over fifty-five innings of work during the nine day game starts he has made in his career. This guy did not make his first major league start until last season at the young age of 31. The Rockies will send Jon Gray to the bump for the opening day start. Gray made twenty-nine starts last season posting a record of 10-10 with an ERA of 4.61 with a WHIP of 1.262 over 168 innings of work. Jon Gray made one previous start versus the Brewers last season which came in late August. When Gray left the game after throwing six solid innings the Rockies held a 4 to 2 lead and Gray was setup to take the victory only to have the bullpen let him down. The Brewers scored three times in the seventh and once more in the eighth to pick up the victory with a 6 to 4 final. The SPMatrix has Guerra with a 5.98 average while Gray comes into this contest with a 6.52 average. Those averages come from our Starting Pitcher Matrix which grades on a scale of 1.00 to 12.00 of course the closer to 12.00 the better the starter for this situation. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.14 runs for the visiting Rockies in this contest. We like the Colorado bullpen in this situation matched up against the Brewers bullpen which has a rating on only 83 with 100 as the league average. The Rockies have a +15 point average differential which is not great but they are much better than the Brewers. With solid support on the bump and at the plate we will back the visiting Rockies on Monday afternoon. Lay the short amount of chalk with Colorado
PICK MADE ON 4/3/2017 AT 1:06 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/3/2017 AT 5:57 PM EST
+3.28
[report pick]
4/3/2017

2:10 PM EST
MLB
COLORADO ROCKIES VS. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

PICK: UNDER 8.5 (-120)

RISK: 4 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Colorado Rockies are in Milwaukee for a four-game series against the hometown Brewers with the first pitch in Game One scheduled for 2:10 PM Eastern Monday afternoon. This game has given us our first Double Play which means we have a money line selection and a total selection on this contest. Milwaukee will hand the ball to Junior Guerra who made twenty starts last season with a 9-3 record and an ERA of 2.81 with a WHIP of 1.126 over 121.2 innings of work. Guerra went 3-3 with an ERA of 3.56 over fifty-five innings of work during the nine day game starts he has made in his career. The Rockies will send Jon Gray to the bump for the opening day start. Gray made twenty-nine starts last season posting a record of 10-10 with an ERA of 4.61 with a WHIP of 1.262 over 168 innings of work. Jon Gray made one previous start versus the Brewers last season which came in late August. When Gray left the game after throwing six solid innings the Rockies held a 4 to 2 lead and Gray was setup to take the victory only to have the bullpen let him down. The Brewers scored three times in the seventh and once more in the eighth to pick up the victory with a 6 to 4 final. This matchup qualifies in our MLB Total Matrix as an Under selection with a projected game total run average of 4.94 runs. The BbTPR Index has Junior Guerra with a -1.909 run average below the number posted by the oddsmakers. The Rockies starter Aaron Sanchez has a -1.73 run average below the posted total set by the oddsmakers for tonight’s game. The Rockies have gone Under at a rate of 0-4 their last four versus the NL Central. They are 1-5 Under when facing right-handed starters. The Rockies are 2-5-1 Under in Gray’s last eight starts in Game One of a series. With strong support for the low side we will play this one to fall well short of the oddsmakers total on Monday afternoon in Milwaukee. Under
PICK MADE ON 4/3/2017 AT 1:07 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/3/2017 AT 6:00 PM EST
-4.00
[report pick]
4/3/2017

3:05 PM EST
MLB
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS. BALTIMORE ORIOLES

PICK: BALTIMORE ORIOLES (-140)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: It is the true opening day of the 2017 MLB Season and we are ready for another big year. Our top play for Monday comes from the American League as the Blue Jays open up in Baltimore against the host Orioles for a two-game mini set before leaving for Cigar City to face the Rays while the Orioles will host the boys from Gotham. Both teams finished last year with a record of 89-73 and were the two wild card teams from the American League. Toronto defeated Baltimore in a one-game playoff, and then went on to send the Texas Rangers home before losing to the Cleveland Indians in the AL Championship series. For Toronto they send Marco Estrada to the bump for their opening game. Estrada was solid last year but his record was just 9-9 with a 3.48 ERA which makes this choice somewhat of a surprise with better arms in the rotation and probably should have gotten the ball for the opener. Kevin Gausman gets the ball for manager Buck Showalter and the Orioles on opening day. His record is worse going 9-12 on the season but he did have a decent ERA of 3.61. Even coming off those records our SPMatrix has Gausman with a 6.38 average while Estrada comes in with only a 5.57 average. The starting pitcher matrix (SPMatrix) rates each pitcher in the league on a scale of 1.00 to 12.00 with 12.00 as the best rating for a pitcher. These are not your old fashion pitcher power ratings these are much more complex. They take into account not only the numbers everyone uses for power ratings but our matrix numbers include location, stadium, and weather, umpires, hitting splits for both teams, defensive splits for both teams and several other groups which we will keep to ourselves. Our SPMM (Starting Pitcher Math Model) grades starting pitchers ONLY it is also made of the usual stats but we have several other key components to make up a starters average. The league average for a starter is 100 so anything higher than 100 means the pitcher is above average in the current situation. Anything below the 100 average means that starter is below the league average in the current situation. The SPMM will really become valuable after the starters have been on the bump for at least two starts this season. The team’s lineups and pitchers favor the Orioles in this particular contest. We also note the Orioles are 44-20 in their last sixty-four at home versus right-handed starters. Gausman was a tough out to end the 2016 campaign when he was throwing on his home bump posting a record of 7-1 his last eight home starts. Our BbTPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.46 in favor of the Baltimore Orioles. We are getting solid line value with the home team on Monday afternoon. Lay the chalk with the O’s.
PICK MADE ON 4/3/2017 AT 1:05 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/3/2017 AT 7:20 PM EST
+3.21
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PICKS FOR SATURDAY, APRIL 01, 2017 [refresh]
4/1/2017

6:05 PM EST
NCAAB
SOUTH CAROLINA VS. GONZAGA

PICK: GONZAGA -6.5 (-115)

RISK: 6 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: A pair of teams making their first appearance in the Final Four and the sad part of the story one of these teams gets sent home tonight. The Cinderella Gamecocks tournament draw has more to do with their actual run here than their talent although they are talented but they did not play this well during the regular season you can easily see they are playing above their standard. South Carolina played for the most part a guard-heavy group of teams prior to facing a conference foe in the Elite 8. Gonzaga has some of the sharpest minds when it comes to defensive schemes they are ranked #1 in the nation on that end of the floor and they will have a plan for the Gamecocks star Thornwell making someone else try to beat them. The Bulldogs are also in the top ten in effective field goal percentage as well. South Carolina is possibly the worst shooting team to ever make it to the Final 4 they are outside the top 290 in effective field goal percentage and outside the top 240 in three-point field goals. Gonzaga on offense poses a serious problem to the Gamecocks after they faced those guard-heavy teams this Bulldogs team can play slow or fast and inside or outside so its pick your poison when you face this Bulldogs team. Some of the Gamecocks opponents could very well have fallen victim to looking past them especially since they were never expected to do anything in the first place. That will not be the case tonight this Gonzaga team is well aware of the Gamecocks and what they have accomplished to this point they are also aware that no other Bulldogs team has made it to the final four so the Gamecocks can expect a fully focused Gonzaga squad on Saturday night. The Gamecocks have struggled coming off a solid performance against a winning team especially when that game went Over the posted total they are 13-26-1 ATS in this situation. Gonzaga on the other hand coming off a game that went Under and they now play as a favorite they are 35-18-1 ATS including 19-8 ATS if they won their previous game. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 14.58 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 9.42 points with a line range of -6.0 to -8.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Gonzaga Bulldogs with a 74.85 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Gonzaga with an offensive-defensive differential of +11.69 with a transitional average of 44.3 and the Bulldogs have an 8.8 percent advantage shooting 50.9 from the field while South Carolina shoots just 42.1 percent from the field on the season. Our conversion rate range projection has similar results with the Bulldogs shooting average +9.04 percent better than the Gamecocks in tonights contest. A check of our powerful college basketball database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to play ON CBB non-conference favorites coming off a straight up win and going Under in their last game because these favorites are 126-86-1 against the spread in this situation. The Bulldogs are 19-6-3 ATS as a favorite of -1.0 to -6.5 points. They also have little trouble with winning teams posting a record of 21-6-2 ATS in that situation including a record of 16-4-2 ATS versus teams with a win of .600 or better. Lay the chalk with the Bulldogs as they end the Cinderella story for the Gamecocks in the desert on Saturday night.
PICK MADE ON 4/1/2017 AT 5:25 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 4/1/2017 AT 9:00 PM EST
-6.00
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PICKS FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 31, 2017 [refresh]
3/31/2017

8:08 PM EST
NBA
SACRAMENTO KINGS VS. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

PICK: UNDER 208.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The Sacramento Kings make the trip to the Big Easy for a Friday night battle against the hometown New Orleans Pelicans. The Kings are coming off a home loss to the Utah Jazz on Wednesday night with the Jazz outscoring the Kings 62 to 39 in the second half for a final score of 112 to 82. The Kings coming off an ATS loss at home and now taking on the Pelicans have been perfect going Under in all seven games in this situation. Sacramento has seen the Under cash in four of their last five games away from home. The Kings long before the trade back in early November played host to the Pelicans defeating them 102 to 94 as 6.5 point home favorites. They hosted the Pelicans again on February 12 and the results were similar with the Kings winning on their home floor as 4-point favorites 105 to 99. With both games going Under the posted total in Sacramento. The oddsmakers have assigned the second lowest total in this series the last seven meetings. The number still offers solid value in this particular situation even with the oddsmakers baiting the public into playing the high side in New Orleans on Friday night. The Pelicans enter tonight’s battle off a 121 to 118 victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. The Momentum Indicator Matrix has the Kings trending in negative territory and the effect on their game total because of this should be in negative numbers meaning they will not score enough to send this game Over the posted total. The Momentum Indicator Matrix has the Pelicans with positive numbers but they do not project a high side finish for them either. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 202.33 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -9.94 points against a total range of 211.0 to 213.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.6 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Under with an offensive-defensive differential of 8.17 with a transitional average of 40.0 and a conversion rate range of 44.28 to 46.51 percent in tonight’s contest. Sacramento is 31-43 Under on the season including 15-21 Under on the road and 24-31 Under as an underdog. The Kings are 5-11 Under versus teams with a losing record during the second half of the season. The Pelicans coming off a SU win and an ATS loss at home now facing a conference foe have gone Under at a rate of 7-18-1. If the Pelicans have lost their last two ATS and now must play as a conference favorite they are perfect at 0-5 Under the last five in this situation. When we have the Pelicans coming off a SU win as a favorite and then taking on the Kings as a favorite they are 1-7 Under and a perfect 0-5 Under if they are a home favorite versus the Kings. With strong support from the fundamental side as well as the technical we will play this one to finish on the low side of the oddsmakers number. Under
PICK MADE ON 3/31/2017 AT 6:15 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/31/2017 AT 10:40 PM EST
+4.55
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3/31/2017

8:08 PM EST
NBA
DALLAS MAVERICKS VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

PICK: OVER 192 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The Memphis Grizzlies returned home on Wednesday night to face the Indiana Pacers after dropping all four games on a four-game road swing that saw them average just eighty-nine points per game over that four-game span. The Pacers were torched for seventy-two points in the first half of that game with the Grizzlies eventually just coasting to a 110 to 97 victory. Conley exploded for 36 points on 13-of-21 shooting, including 7-of-12 from behind the arc, while adding six assists and four steals in Wednesday's win. Conley and his Grizzlies teammates are 2.5 games behind Oklahoma City Thunder in the race for the No. 6 seed in the West and are well aware that they need to be playing much better which for them means scoring the basketball. They came out in the game against the Pacers focused on the job at hand and we expect a similar performance tonight which with the help of the Mavs pushes the total well above the oddsmakers number. The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a close loss in the Big Easy to the Pelicans on Wednesday night losing by a final score of 121 to 118. The high side has been the right side in twelve of the last fifteen meetings between these two clubs and five of the last six in Memphis. The Memphis Grizzlies have also cashed the high side in six of their last seven at the FedEx Forum. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 199.72 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +8.86 points against a total range of 192.0 to 194.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 74.08 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 9.87 with a transitional average of 42.46 and a conversion rate range of 44.25 to 46.73 percent in tonight’s contest. Dallas coming off a SU loss and now playing as an underdog has seen the Over cash at a rate of 109-79-2 Over their next trip to the hardwood. With the Mavericks losing as an underdog and now playing as an underdog in the current contest the Over has posted a record of 65-41-1 Over. Dallas coming off a loss on the road and now taking on a conference foe as an underdog the Over has been the play with a record of 53-34-2 Over including 41-24-2 Over if they are a conference road underdog. The Grizzlies are coming off an ATS win and going Over in their last game and have now been installed as a division home favorite in this situation the Over has been perfect going 6-0 Over the last six in this situation. Memphis coming off a game as a favorite and playing the current game as a favorite the Over has been the play with a record of 40-19-2 Over. If the Grizzlies are coming off back-to-back games as a favorite and now installed as the favorite the Over is 23-6-1 including 15-4 Over if the Grizzlies are home favorites. With solid support for the high side we will play the Over on Friday night in Memphis. Over
PICK MADE ON 3/31/2017 AT 6:16 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/31/2017 AT 10:59 PM EST
-5.00
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PICKS FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 30, 2017 [refresh]
3/30/2017

8:00 PM EST
NBA
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. CHICAGO BULLS

PICK: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to the Second City for a battle against the host Chicago Bulls on Thursday night. The Cavs have looked like anything but winners or champions recently losers in four of their last six trips to the hardwood having been crushed their last time out in Texas by the Spurs on Monday night. The Bulls have been a little better splitting their last six after defeating the Milwaukee Bucks 109 to 94 on the road last Sunday. The Bulls have dominated this series this season winning all three meetings including a 117 to 99 beating in the last matchup back in late February. The Cavs with that loss to the Spurs dropped from the top spot in the Eastern Conference falling a half a game behind the Celtics. In the Cavs loss to the Spurs they came out flat and were never in the game from the opening tip. Cleveland shot just over thirty-seven percent from the floor and a horrid four of twenty-six from behind the arc. In any game rebounds and turnovers play a huge roll and they were certainly important in that game with the Spurs winning on the boards 52 to 40 and in the turnover battle with the Cavs turning it over sixteen times in the loss. The Bulls are one game behind the Heat for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East with eight games to play. Chicago managed to stave off a complete meltdown by putting together a solid offensive performance in taking down the Bucks. Chicago led by just one at the half but took control of the game by outscoring Milwaukee 35 to 24 in the third quarter. The Bulls had a good shooting night as they hit 54.1 percent from the floor, including 10 of 21 from three point range. Chicago also owned a 49 to 34 edge on the boards in the game. Nikola Mirotic led the Bulls with 28 points in the victory. Our Momentum Indicator has the Bulls struggling and solidly in negative territory after their win versus the Milwaukee Bucks. The Momentum Matrix has the Bulls with negative numbers in all seven categories. Our Momentum Indicator has the Cavaliers in positive territory coming off that horrible loss in San Antonio. The Momentum Matrix has the Cavs with positive numbers in five of the seven categories and even in the final two categories so no negative averages in any category for the Cavaliers tonight. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 12.86 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 8.59 points with a line range of -4.5 to -6.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Cleveland Cavaliers with a 73.01 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Cleveland with an offensive-defensive differential of +7.43 with a transitional average of 41.72 and a conversion rate range of 45.95 to 47.88 percent in tonights contest. The Bulls coming off a SU and ATS win as an underdog in their last game and now play at home in the current price range have posted a record of 6-19 ATS. The Cavs coming off a game as an underdog against a team with a win percentage of .667 or better they are 69-46-3 ATS. If they are installed as a favorite in this situation they are 31-12-3 ATS. We want to play ON NBA division favorites of 4.0 to 6.5 points coming off a SU and ATS loss as an underdog in their last game because they are 103-71-1 ATS. Ok the oddsmakers know the Bulls have owned this series this season winning all three matchups they also know the Bulls are playing much better than the Cavs are right now and the public is aware of all these factors as well and they still made the Cavaliers a five-point division road favorite in this game. With the Cavs well aware of how they are playing and knowing they need to turn the momentum in their favor we expect them to come out and finish tonight grabbing the victory both SU and ATS over the Bulls.
PICK MADE ON 3/30/2017 AT 6:26 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/31/2017 AT 11:14 AM EST
-5.00
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3/30/2017

8:00 PM EST
NCAAB
GEORGIA TECH VS. TCU

PICK: TCU -4 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The Championship game for the NIT Tournament in the Big Apple and played at MSG with the tip set for 8:00PM Eastern Time and the game can be seen on ESPN. The Yellow Jackets are led by ACC Coach of the Year Josh Pastner and the Jackets just missed the NCAA Tournament with a 17-15 record on the year. Even though he was ACC COY he is not the best coach on the floor tonight as TCU’s Jamie Dixon takes that title with eleven NCAA Tournament appearance’s under his belt and a CBI Tournament Championship also on his resume. Dixon is one of the nation’s top big game coaches and he will give his team the needed advantage to get the victory tonight. The Jackets defeated some solid teams to reach this point and the Frogs did as well by knocking off four teams ranked in KenPom’s Top 100. They sent Fresno State, Richmond, Iowa and Central Florida home so they could begin their off-season. Tech has used a solid defense this season to make this run and TCU will have to deal with that top ten defense if they are to get the victory. Dixon and his troops will have an answer for the Jackets defensive schemes and our numbers tell us they will break that pace-tempo average the Jackets have imposed on their opponents this season. Dixon improved the Horned Frogs from a 12-win team to a team who has won 23 games and is in the NIT Championship Game. The Frogs have three players averaging double-digits in scoring, including Alex Robinson who also leads the team in assists. TCU did lose one of their best players in Jaylen Fisher in the first round of the NIT. He has been ruled out for the remainder of the season and of course will not play tonight he was averaging 9.9 points per game. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 12.05 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 9.34 points with a line range of -3.5 to -5.5. The BSIM Matrix has the TCU Horned Frogs with a 73.67 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has TCU with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.78 with a transitional average of 42.2 and a conversion rate range of 46.19 to 48.77 percent in tonight’s contest. Georgia Tech coming off a SU win as a favorite and going Over have posted a record of 8-19-1 ATS. The Yellow Jackets coming off a SU win and now playing on the road are 5-17 ATS and 3-13 ATS as an away underdog. With strong fundamental advantages and strong technical elements all backing the Frogs we will lay the chalk with TCU in the Big Apple Thursday night.
PICK MADE ON 3/30/2017 AT 6:26 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/30/2017 AT 10:37 PM EST
+4.55
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PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 29, 2017 [refresh]
3/29/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
TEXAS A&M CC VS. UMBC

PICK: UMBC -2.5 (-115)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The CIT Final Four begins with Furman taking on St. Peters and our game with UMBC taking on Texas A&M Corpus Christi. These two clubs are ranked in the KP Ratings at Number 192 and Number 193 respectively. The Islanders used a late season push to offset a slow start to the season and with that surge they qualified for this tournament. For the Retrievers they opened the 2016-17 campaign on a roll posting a record of 12-4 over their first sixteen times to post. The wins were not as easy to come by as the season wore on and they ended the regular season with a record of 18-11 but they had done enough to qualify for the postseason. Once they arrived in the CIT they took advantage and begin to roll past their opponents. UMBC has used a powerful offense all year which has carried them to this point. They rank in the Top 100 in offensive efficiency and they average 81.8 points per game which is good enough for Number 21 in the nation. The Retrievers have averaged 85.8 points per game at home this season and this against teams that average allowing just 73.2 points per game. The Islanders have averaged 69.6 points per game on the road against teams that normally allow teams to average 75.2 points per game. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.78 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 8.43 points with a line range of -2.0 to -4.5. The BSIM Matrix has the UMBC Retrievers with a 73.17 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has UMBC with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.65 with a transitional average of 41.8 and a conversion rate range of 47.77 to 49.62 percent in tonight’s contest. We want to play AGAINST CBB non-conference underdogs coming off a SU win as a home underdog and going Under the posted total because these underdogs are 75-110-1 ATS. If our play AGAINST team is a road underdog the systems record is 55-83-1 ATS. With solid support for the home team we will lay the short number here as the Retrievers take down the Islanders and advance to the Championship Game. Lay the chalk
PICK MADE ON 3/29/2017 AT 6:03 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/29/2017 AT 9:40 PM EST
-5.00
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3/29/2017

7:05 PM EST
NBA
ATLANTA HAWKS VS. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

PICK: ATLANTA HAWKS -2 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The Atlanta Hawks are in the City of Brotherly Love taking on the hometown Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday night. A quick look at recent performance numbers we see the Hawks have lost seven of their last eight games and just 3-5 ATS over their last eight away from the ATL. The Sixers have been almost the exact opposite posting a record of 9-2 versus the number their last eleven overall and 15-2 against the number their last seventeen in the City of Brotherly Love. The one area the Sixers have struggled is against this Hawks team with a record of just 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta. The Hawks have won six straight and 13 of the last 14 meetings between these two clubs. That includes a 110 to 93 home win in the most recent matchup on January 21. Atlanta was tied with Indiana and Milwaukee for the fifth through seventh slots in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The Hawks are only 2.5 games ahead of ninth place Chicago at this point in time. Atlanta trails Washington by eight games in the Southeast Division with nine to play. The Hawks are 18-18 on the road and they have gone 25-19 against the Eastern Conference this season. Atlanta announced that Paul Millsap has left knee synovitis and will miss at least the next three games. The Sixers are coming off a win in Brooklyn 106 to 101 their last time out and that game ended a five-game road swing for the 76ers. They are home for tonight’s game against the Hawks and then hit the road for a mini two-game road swing. With Philadelphia coming off at least two road games and now face a conference opponent at home they are only 21-40-1 ATS including 14-27 ATS as a home underdog. Philadelphia is eight games behind the Heat for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference which all that really means is their official elimination is pending and should come to an end real soon. The 76ers are struggling on the offensive end of the floor. The team is 24th in the league in scoring offense with 102.4 points per game. Philadelphia is 24th in rebounding with 43 boards a night and 8th with 23.7 assists per contest. The 76ers are below average on the defensive end, ranking 23rd by allowing 107.7 points a game. Philadelphia is 18-25 against Eastern Conference competition on the year. Injuries have taken a toll on the 76ers, who haven’t been the same since shutting down Joel Embiid for the year. The Sixers coming off a SU win as an Underdog and the game going Under the posted total and now face a conference foe at home they are only 14-30-3 ATS. Philadelphia coming off a road game as an underdog and now taking on a conference foe at home have posted a record of 76-113-5 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.94 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 8.87 points with a line range of -1.0 to -3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Atlanta Hawks with a 73.82 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Atlanta with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.33 with a transitional average of 42.4 and a conversion rate range of 45.61 to 47.75 percent in tonight’s contest. The Atlanta Hawks qualify in our Reverse Momentum Matrix trending in positive territory while the Sixers are solidly in negative territory even though they are coming off a SU win in their last game. With the Hawks coming off a game as a home favorite their last time out and now must travel to face a conference foe and the oddsmakers installing them as road favorites in that game the Hawks are 34-17-3 ATS in this situation. We are going to lay the short number here as the Atlanta Hawks grab the victory in the City of Brotherly Love on Wednesday night.
PICK MADE ON 3/29/2017 AT 6:02 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/30/2017 AT 8:13 AM EST
+4.55
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3/29/2017

7:38 PM EST
NBA
CHARLOTTE HORNETS VS. TORONTO RAPTORS

PICK: TORONTO RAPTORS -6 (-115)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The NBA regular season is closing in on the finish line with teams all jockeying for position in an effort to make the playoffs. The Hornets are north of the border tonight after playing a home game last night against the Milwaukee Bucks. In that game the Hornets played well in spurts but not consistently and they got beat 118 to 108 and that double-digit loss doesn’t really reflect how poorly the Hornets looked at times in this game. They have a few runs over the course of the game which actually made the score more respectable than it actually was as the Bucks had their way with the Hornets. These two clubs have met three times this season with Toronto taking the first and third games while Charlotte surprisingly scored a thirty-five point blowout over the Raptors in Game Two back on January 20. The Raptors are in a tough fight with the Cavaliers and Celticks for the top spot in the East and they enter tonight’s battle playing with a ton of momentum having won six straight and looking to make that seven after tonight’s game. Over that six-game winning streak they have also taken care of their backers by posting a 5-1 mark against the spread. Toronto is coming off a home victory over Orlando their last time out winning 131 to 112 as -7.5 point home favorites. We know the Raptors are 15-7 ATS this season coming off a victory of ten or more points. Charlotte coming off that SU and ATS loss in their last game and now play a game with a price range of 6.0 to 8.5 they have only posted a record of 27-46-1 ATS. The Hornets losing and going Over the total at home and now installed as an underdog they are only 3-14-1 ATS including 1-9-1 ATS if they are a road underdog. If the Hornets went Over the posted total at home in their last two games and now play on the road they are 0-8-1 ATS. We want to play AGAINST NBA conference road teams coming off a pair of home games in which they went Over the posted total because these road teams are only 91-134-3 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 13.5 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 8.69 points with a line range of -6.0 to -8.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Toronto Raptors with a 74.62 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Toronto with an offensive-defensive differential of +9.72 with a transitional average of 43.18 and a conversion rate range of 45.8 to 47.4 percent in tonight’s contest. We will lay the chalk with the home team on Wednesday night as the Raptors do what they do and get this SU and ATS victory over the Hornets.
PICK MADE ON 3/29/2017 AT 6:02 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/29/2017 AT 10:16 PM EST
-5.00
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PICKS FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 28, 2017 [refresh]
3/28/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
CS BAKERSFIELD ROADRUNNERS VS. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS

PICK: OVER 123.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The National Invitational Tournament makes their way to the Big Apple and Madison Square Garden for their Final Four. In the first game we have Cal State Bakersfield taking on Georgia Tech with the tip set for 7Pm Eastern Time. Cal State Bakersfield punched their Final Four ticket by defeating UT Arlington 80 to 76. The Roadrunners had taken a sixteen-point lead into halftime, 45 to 29 but had to play through a serious run from UT Arlington who made it a game in the second half. With that victory Cal State Bakersfield became the first Eighth Seed to advance to the NIT Final Four. The Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech had a similar second half of their game against Ole Miss taking a nine-point lead into halftime and holding on in the second half to advance to the Final Four defeating the Rebels 74 to 66. Georgia Tech also won against the spread on the road in that game and this triggers a system that plays the Over on teams coming off an ATS win on the road in the postseason and now playing as a favorite of pick to -3.5 points. This system has a record of 20-8 Over in the postseason. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 131.67 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +8.88 points against a total range of 123.0 to 125.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 74.2 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 9.35 with a transitional average of 40.16 and a conversion rate range of 44.75 to 46.49 percent in tonight’s contest. The Momentum Indicator has both teams in positive territory with the Roadrunners scoring average at 67.4 points and the Yellow Jackets scoring average at 69.77 points. The Roadrunners are currently +2.5 point underdogs and we know they are a perfect 6-0 Over their last six games in the role of underdog. We want to play Over on postseason favorites coming off an ATS win as an underdog in their last game because these games have posted a record of 69-44-1 Over. If we add Under as another parameter to that system we see the Over has cashed at a rate of 44-26-1 Over. This game has solid value on the high side of the oddsmakers total so we will play the Over in the Big Apple on Tuesday night in Game One of the NIT Final Four.
PICK MADE ON 3/28/2017 AT 6:04 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/29/2017 AT 6:00 PM EST
+4.55
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3/28/2017

10:08 PM EST
NBA
DENVER NUGGETS VS. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

PICK: PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -1 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The Portland Trailblazers play host to the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday night with a ton at stake for both teams concerning the last playoff berth in the West as both are contenders for that slot. This makes the contest extremely important to both squads and Portland has won two of the first three meetings versus Denver and they could secure the tiebreaker with a win tonight. The play of the Blazers the last couple weeks has been intense as they play with a purpose covering in six of their last seven games. The Blazers have made dramatic improvements on the defensive end of the floor coming from last in the league as the worst defensive as 2016 came to an end to ranked seventh this month holding opponents to less than a point per possession over almost three hundred minutes of action. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.75 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 9.94 points with a line range of -1.5 to -3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Portland Trailblazers with a 74.52 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Portland with an offensive-defensive differential of +10.8 with a transitional average of 42.17 and a conversion rate range of 46.99 to 48.63 percent in tonight’s contest. The Blazers have taken eight of the last ten meetings between the two clubs no matter where the game was played. Denver has dropped their last four trips to Portland and the Blazers will make it five for five on Tuesday night. Lay the short number with the home team as they snatch an all-important victory on their home floor tonight.
PICK MADE ON 3/28/2017 AT 6:05 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/29/2017 AT 12:57 AM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
PICKS FOR MONDAY, MARCH 27, 2017 [refresh]
3/27/2017

8:00 PM EST
NBA
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. SAN ANTONIO SPURS

PICK: SAN ANTONIO SPURS -5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Cleveland Cavaliers are on the road for a mini two-game road swing with the opener in San Antonio Monday night. The game will be featured as the NBA Monday Game of the Week on TNT. The Cavaliers will have the Spurs full attention with the defending champs in town and playing on national television in front of their home crowd the Cavs will not catch this Spurs team sleeping. The Spurs are riding a four-game win streak following back-to-back losses to Portland and in Memphis. The Cavs are coming in off a poor performance against the Wizards at home losing 127 to 115 which makes their record of 7-9 SU their last sixteen trips to the hardwood. Cleveland is 1-8-1 ATS coming off a double-digit loss at home. The Cavs are 6-16-2 ATS in their last twenty-four games following a straight up loss of more than ten points. This will be Cleveland’s third game in four nights and their eleventh road game over their last fifteen contests. The Cavs road struggles are well documented really struggling on the road against solid teams with a record of just 1-9 as underdogs. San Antonio is 28-7 at home this season and have won 17 of the last 21 meetings at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With the Spurs coming off an ATS loss in their last game and now facing a non-conference opponent they have been money posting a record of 76-49-6 ATS. If the Spurs were installed as a favorite in that situation their record is 68-45-6 ATS. If the Spurs were at home that record improves to 40-23-3 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 12.87 points. The BMM has a point differential of 8.52 points against the current line range of -4.0 to -6.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the San Antonio Spurs with a 72.06 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has San Antonio with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.43 with a transitional average of 42.2. The team splits have the Spurs with an average score of 114.9 points and the Cavaliers with an average score of 102.07 points in tonight’s contest. The Five-Man Splits have a score differential of 10.73 points in favor of the Spurs which has them easily covering the oddsmakers number on Monday night. We want to play ON NBA home favorites of 4.0 to 6.5 points coming off back-to-back home games in which they were favored because these home favorites are 203-159-9 ATS. If they are non-conference home favorites in this situation their record is 43-25-1 ATS. We have significant support for the home team tonight so we will lay the chalk with the Spurs as they take down the Cavaliers on Monday night in San Antonio
PICK MADE ON 3/27/2017 AT 5:39 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/28/2017 AT 6:03 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/27/2017

8:08 PM EST
NBA
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. SAN ANTONIO SPURS

PICK: OVER 211.5 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The NBA TNT Monday Night Game of the Week comes from San Antonio where the Spurs play host to the Cleveland Cavaliers with tip set for 8:00PM Eastern Time. The Cavaliers have been struggling on the defensive end of the floor unable to slow anyone’s offense down allowing at least 105 a game the last four trips to the hardwood. Although on the offensive end of the floor they have been able to average 113 points per game over that same span. We want to play Over with the Cavaliers coming off a SU loss at home as a favorite and now installed as a road underdog because they have posted a record of 17-7-1 Over the last twenty-five in this situation. We also note they are a perfect 8-0 Over when facing the Spurs in San Antonio in the same situation. If they are installed as a road underdog in San Antonio the Over is a perfect 7-0 the last seven meetings in this situation. We want to play OVER on NBA underdogs coming off three straight games as a favorite and going Over the total because they go Over the total at a rate of 43-23 Over. If our underdogs are on the road the Over is 36-20 the last fifty-six in this situation. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 222.07 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +10.26 points against a total range of 211.0 to 213.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 73.04 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 9.98 with a transitional average of 43.42 and a conversion rate range of 47.69 to 49.81 percent in tonight’s contest. With the Cavaliers momentum numbers still trending into the high end of their scoring range and the Spurs playing at home where their momentum numbers are on the high side of their scoring range we will play the Over in Texas on Monday night.
PICK MADE ON 3/27/2017 AT 5:40 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/27/2017 AT 10:59 PM EST
-4.50
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 26, 2017 [refresh]
3/26/2017

5:05 PM EST
NCAAB
KENTUCKY VS. NORTH CAROLINA

PICK: KENTUCKY +2 (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/26/2017 AT 12:37 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/26/2017 AT 7:58 PM EST
- - - - -
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 25, 2017 [refresh]
3/25/2017

6:09 PM EST
NCAAB
XAVIER VS. GONZAGA

PICK: XAVIER +8.5 (-115)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Musketeers have certainly brought their A-game to the show knocking off three top six seeds to get to the Elite 8 and a matchup against the Number One seed Gonzaga on Saturday night. Top-seeded Gonzaga and 11th-seeded Xavier are both trying to reach the Final Four for the first time in school history. The fact the Bulldogs have not made the Final Four has been a point of contention seemingly getting under the skin of Gonzaga head coach Mark Few even though he says he is not bothered by that fact. We know there is certainly more pressure on the Bulldogs as the school's inability to reach a Final Four has been frequently brought up during their best-ever campaign. Even though their head coach says there is no pressure he addressed that topic here following their win over West Virginia. "First of all, I don't know that I have a monkey on my back," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said after a 61 to 58 victory over fourth-seeded West Virginia. "I certainly don't wake up with one or walk around with one. So I don't think these guys think I have one. ... It would be phenomenal to get these guys, this team that I love deeply, the experience to go to a Final Four." Xavier closed their Sweet 16 game out with a 9-0 run to grab a 73 to 71 upset victory over second-seeded Arizona on Thursday and senior guard Malcolm Bernard feels his team is ready to join LSU (1986), George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011) as 11 seeds to crash the Final Four. "We worked so hard, not only in the offseason but throughout the year battling adversity," Bernard said in the postgame press conference. The Momentum Factor Index has the Bulldogs holding in positive territory with a projected forecast that would not have them covering the spread in this game. The Musketeers have consistently stepped their game up and their momentum average has them covering the spread versus the Bulldogs on Saturday night. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.79 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 7.06 points with a line range of +7.5 to +9.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Xavier Musketeers with a 73.94 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Xavier with an offensive-defensive differential of +2.3 with a transitional average of 41.55. The team splits have the Musketeers with an average score of 76.93 points and the Bulldogs with an average score of 78.67 points in tonight’s contest. The Five-Man Splits have a score differential of 3.46 points in favor of the Bulldogs which is well below the number set by the oddsmakers for this contest. The current line as of this writing has Gonzaga -8.0 points over Xavier. The Musketeers are 24-9-1 ATS as a non-conference road underdog. The Musketeers coming off a SU win in their last game and now facing a non-conference foe have posted a record of 72-41-3 ATS including 32-15-1 ATS if they are on the road in this situation. If the Musketeers won both straight up and against the spread in their last game and now face a non-conference foe they are 44-25-1 ATS their next time out. The Musketeers are a remarkable 15-2-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. We know Number One seeds in the Elite 8 Round that are favored by seven or more points have posted a record of 3-9-2 ATS since 2000. Number Eight or higher seeds in the NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Round are 7-0-1 ATS. Gonzaga head coach Mark Few is 0-2 both straight up and against the spread in this round of the NCAA Tournament. Finally we note NCAA Tournament teams coming off three straight ATS wins are 9-1-1 ATS in this round. Gonzaga coming off a SU win and now facing a non-conference foe as a favorite they are only 42-63-2 ATS. With key advantages for the underdog we will back the Musketeers on Saturday night in San Jose California as they shock the Bulldogs. Take the points
PICK MADE ON 3/25/2017 AT 1:23 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/25/2017 AT 8:37 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
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