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Since 1989 Cajun Sports has been the preferred destination for serious sports investors looking for comprehensive statistics and systems tailored for wagering against the point spread combined with effective betting strategies that consistently defeat the Vegas Line. Cajun Sports Best Bets are supported by logical reasoning, solid analysis and exclusive information. Cajun Sports Handicapper is a Certified SDQL Master which gives Cajun Sports clients a huge advantage when investing in the global sports market. Cajun Sports is the 2009 Vegas Wise Guys Contest Champion. The Vegas Wise Guys contest is an invitation ONLY contest for 50 of the nation's top professional sports handicappers. Success is where preparation meets opportunity. 

 

 

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PICKS FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 25, 2017  (YESTERDAY) [refresh]
3/25/2017

6:09 PM EST
NCAAB
XAVIER VS. GONZAGA

PICK: XAVIER +8.5 (-115)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Musketeers have certainly brought their A-game to the show knocking off three top six seeds to get to the Elite 8 and a matchup against the Number One seed Gonzaga on Saturday night. Top-seeded Gonzaga and 11th-seeded Xavier are both trying to reach the Final Four for the first time in school history. The fact the Bulldogs have not made the Final Four has been a point of contention seemingly getting under the skin of Gonzaga head coach Mark Few even though he says he is not bothered by that fact. We know there is certainly more pressure on the Bulldogs as the school's inability to reach a Final Four has been frequently brought up during their best-ever campaign. Even though their head coach says there is no pressure he addressed that topic here following their win over West Virginia. "First of all, I don't know that I have a monkey on my back," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said after a 61 to 58 victory over fourth-seeded West Virginia. "I certainly don't wake up with one or walk around with one. So I don't think these guys think I have one. ... It would be phenomenal to get these guys, this team that I love deeply, the experience to go to a Final Four." Xavier closed their Sweet 16 game out with a 9-0 run to grab a 73 to 71 upset victory over second-seeded Arizona on Thursday and senior guard Malcolm Bernard feels his team is ready to join LSU (1986), George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011) as 11 seeds to crash the Final Four. "We worked so hard, not only in the offseason but throughout the year battling adversity," Bernard said in the postgame press conference. The Momentum Factor Index has the Bulldogs holding in positive territory with a projected forecast that would not have them covering the spread in this game. The Musketeers have consistently stepped their game up and their momentum average has them covering the spread versus the Bulldogs on Saturday night. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.79 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 7.06 points with a line range of +7.5 to +9.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Xavier Musketeers with a 73.94 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Xavier with an offensive-defensive differential of +2.3 with a transitional average of 41.55. The team splits have the Musketeers with an average score of 76.93 points and the Bulldogs with an average score of 78.67 points in tonight’s contest. The Five-Man Splits have a score differential of 3.46 points in favor of the Bulldogs which is well below the number set by the oddsmakers for this contest. The current line as of this writing has Gonzaga -8.0 points over Xavier. The Musketeers are 24-9-1 ATS as a non-conference road underdog. The Musketeers coming off a SU win in their last game and now facing a non-conference foe have posted a record of 72-41-3 ATS including 32-15-1 ATS if they are on the road in this situation. If the Musketeers won both straight up and against the spread in their last game and now face a non-conference foe they are 44-25-1 ATS their next time out. The Musketeers are a remarkable 15-2-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. We know Number One seeds in the Elite 8 Round that are favored by seven or more points have posted a record of 3-9-2 ATS since 2000. Number Eight or higher seeds in the NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Round are 7-0-1 ATS. Gonzaga head coach Mark Few is 0-2 both straight up and against the spread in this round of the NCAA Tournament. Finally we note NCAA Tournament teams coming off three straight ATS wins are 9-1-1 ATS in this round. Gonzaga coming off a SU win and now facing a non-conference foe as a favorite they are only 42-63-2 ATS. With key advantages for the underdog we will back the Musketeers on Saturday night in San Jose California as they shock the Bulldogs. Take the points
PICK MADE YESTERDAY AT 1:23 PM EST
PICK GRADED YESTERDAY AT 8:37 PM EST
-5.00
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PICKS FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 24, 2017 [refresh]
3/24/2017

9:59 PM EST
NCAAB
WISCONSIN VS. FLORIDA

PICK: FLORIDA -1 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Florida Gators are back in the Sweet 16 after a three-year absence with this being their eleventh time in the programs history. The Gators have played well in the region semifinals winning eight of ten in this situation. They have actually won seven straight Sweet 16 games with the two losses coming back in 87 in the Meadowlands against Syracuse and in 99 versus Gonzaga losing on a tip by Casey Calvary in the desert in Arizona. The Gators easily advanced despite the struggles from the field for their leading scorer, KeVaughn Allen, who was horrible shooting just 3-of-21 from the field in Orlando. However, the sophomore guard was on fire when the Gators faced the Blue Devils at MSG back in early December. Allen dropped 21 points on the Blue Devils, draining 8-of-12 shots from the field, including 3-of-5 from behind the arc. White played freshman center Gorjok Gak in both games. With starting center John Egbunu out for the season with a torn ACL, Gak providing quality minutes on the interior is a big deal for this Gators team. The Gators defense is extremely underrated. It starts with the on-ball pressure on the perimeter by Hill and Chiozza. Leon and Robinson are versatile and athletic, capable of defending on the perimeter and on the post. Kevarrius Hayes, the sophomore who became the starting center when Egbunu was injured, has 16 blocked shots in the last nine games and had six steals vs. ETSU. The Gators are ranked 10th in the nation at defending the 3-point line (30.4%). The Badgers are playing with a chip on their shoulder after inexplicably being slotted as an eight seed in the Tournament by the Selection Committee. That same committee made Minnesota a five seed even though this Badgers team defeated them with east twice during the season including a 66 to 49 blowout. The Number 1 overall seed in the tournament paid a heavy price when they faced this Badgers team as they were knocked out of the tournament by a group of motivated Badgers. The problem now is the Badgers have expended not only a ton of physical energy to get that win over Nova but the emotional toll can be a tournament Achilles heel for this Badgers team. In these types of situations especially in the NCAA Tournament teams struggle to get back up from such a big victory. Also our Momentum Indicator has Florida trending solidly in positive territory with their momentum average at 8.21 out of a possible perfect score of 10.0. Not really any good news for the Badgers here as their momentum average has them trending in negative territory with a momentum average of 4.87 out of a perfect score of 10.0. With Wisconsin coming off a SU win on the road in their last game they are only 33-53-2 ATS in their next contest. If the Badgers won SU and ATS on the road in their last game they are only 26-51-2 ATS. In the same situation and now they face a non-conference opponent on the road the Badgers are 1-10-1 ATS. For Florida the results are much different the Gators have not only done well SU they have done extremely well in this situation. Florida coming off a SU win as a favorite and now facing a non-conference foe have posted a record of 40-22-3 ATS including 31-17-2 ATS if they are now favored. If the Gators won SU and ATS as a favorite in their last game and they are now facing a non-conference foe on the road they are 29-13-2 ATS including a perfect 8-0 ATS in the current price range. The betting public is backing the Badgers in this contest with almost seventy percent of the squares taking the point with Wisconsin. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.75 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 9.02 points with a line range of 0.0 to -2.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Florida Gators with a 73.86 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Gators with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.47 with a transitional average of 42.9. With significant support across the board for the Gators we will lay the short number here as Florida derails the Badgers on Friday night in the Big Apple. Lay the chalk
PICK MADE ON 3/24/2017 AT 5:34 PM EST
PICK GRADED YESTERDAY AT 1:18 AM EST
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PICKS FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 23, 2017 [refresh]
3/23/2017

7:39 PM EST
NCAAB
WEST VIRGINIA VS. GONZAGA

PICK: OVER 149.5 (-115)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The NCAA Basketball Tournament tips off the Sweet 16 in San Jose California on Thursday night with the West Virginia Mountaineers taking on the Gonzaga Bulldogs. This Mountaineers team is deep and they play the press as good as anybody in the country. They defeated Bucknell 86 to 80 and a veteran Notre Dame team 83 to 71. The real key for West Virginia in those victories was their ability to drain the trey hitting fifty-four percent from behind the arc. Tonight they face a Gonzaga team that is well balanced with a lot of experience with transfers from larger programs filling their roster like Nigel Williams-Goss who started two years at Washington, two-year starters Jordan Matthews who played his ball at Cal and Missouri two-year starter Jonathan Williams. This Zaga team is 34-1 and yes they did play in a weaker conference than West Virginia but they own victories over a very good St. Marys team who they defeated in all three meetings this season which is a very tall order for any team plus they have wins against Florida, Northwestern, Iowa State and Arizona. We believe the Bulldogs will be able to break that West Virginia press and score the basketball tonight. On the other end we look for the West Virginia to continue their sharp shooting maybe not fifty-four percent but certainly enough to push this total over to the high side of the oddsmakers number. The team splits have a projected average of 78 points for the Mountaineers and 85 points for the Bulldogs which put us well over the oddsmakers number of 149.5. The five-man splits show a much higher average for the Bulldogs compared to the five-man split average for the Mountaineers but they still combine to send the total point average Over the game total of 149.5 points. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 158.96 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of +9.85 points against a total range of 149.0 to 151.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Over with a 74.12 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Bulldogs coming off a SU win but an ATS loss as a favorite and now face a non-conference foe those games have gone Over at a rate of 25-11-1 Over. In all postseason games Gonzaga has gone Over at a rate 20-9 including 19-7 Over when coming off a SU win. They are a perfect 8-0 Over in the postseason when the line for the game is 3.0 to 6.5. We want to play Over on postseason favorites in this same price range when they are coming off a postseason game that went Over the posted total their last time out. These postseason favorites have a record of 123-89-1 Over. If these postseason favorites also won their last game the Over is 93-62-1 Over their next time out. The pace tempo matrix and the momentum indicator matrix have this contest finishing on the high side of the total tonight. Heading into Thursday and Friday’s Sweet 16 matchups, the 2017 NCAA tournament is producing a whopping 150.84 points per game, versus an average total of just 142.18 points (a difference of +8.66 ppg), for an Over/Under record of 34-17-1 – a 67 percent winning clip for Over bettors. There’s been an average of 35.26 personal fouls called per game, with 20 games featuring 36 or more personal fouls. Those whistle-plagued contests have gone 14-6 Over/Under (70% Overs). While the 2017 tourney is averaging slightly fewer calls than the 2016 Big Dance (35.86 PFPG) you have to remember that the NCAA is trying to train teams to be less physical and eliminate hand-checking on defense. College hoops is now into Year 4 under this super-sensitive officiating and players and coaches understand that you can’t get away with what you used to. It’s given an advantage to the offense, and is part of why scoring has peaked during March Madness. Sweet 16 games have averaged 34.16 PFPG since 2011, while Elite Eight games have boasted 34.79 PGPG in that same span. Referees really start to let teams battle once the tournament hits the Final Four, with the average for the national semifinals dropping to 33.58 PFPG and the national championship hearing only 31.83 personal fouls whistled per title game over the last NCAA six tournaments. This plays into what West Virginia does defensively they keep referees on their toes and very busy. The Mountaineers commit an average of 20.3 PFPG (282nd in the country) while drawing 21.3 PFPG (14th in the country) - a combined average of 41.6 personal fouls per outing. Gonzaga averages 16.3 PFPG committed and 19.7 PFPG drawn for a combined average of 36.0 personal fouls per outing. We must remember those averages for each team are their season-to-date average so based on the recent history of the tournament and the way it has played to this point we should see an increase overall for their meeting tonight. The fact they are calling more fouls stops the clock and allows these guys to score points with ease. The combination of all these factors should help send this one Over the oddsmakers number on Thursday night in San Jose California. Over
PICK MADE ON 3/23/2017 AT 6:08 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/23/2017 AT 10:40 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 22, 2017 [refresh]
3/22/2017

8:00 PM EST
NCAAB
IDAHO VS. TEXAS STATE

PICK: OVER 131 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/22/2017 AT 7:51 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/22/2017 AT 10:39 PM EST
-5.00
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3/22/2017

9:08 PM EST
NBA
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. DENVER NUGGETS

PICK: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -2.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/22/2017 AT 7:51 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/22/2017 AT 11:39 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 21, 2017 [refresh]
3/21/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
RICHMOND VS. TCU

PICK: UNDER 149 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: A Pair of Cinderella’s takes the hardwood in an NIT Quarterfinal matchup on Tuesday night with the winner punching their ticket to Madison Square Garden. The Spiders pulled off a home victory over Oakland winning by four-points in their second-round contest. The Frogs had to go on the road to top-seeded Iowa and they needed overtime to pull off the upset and advance to this round. Both teams have averaged in the low seventies this season in scoring and they have also allowed their opponents to average in the low seventies. The team splits have a projected average of 74 points for the Horned Frogs and 67 points for the Spiders which put us well below the oddsmakers number of 149. The five-man splits have a low average as well with the combined average total for the game of only 139.02 points. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 140.22 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of -9.18 points against a total range of 148.5 to 150.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.6 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. When the Spiders are on the road and installed as an underdog we want to play the Under because they are 40-63-3 Under. If the Spiders went Over at home in their last game and now play on the road the Under has cashed the ticket with a record of 11-23 Under. If the Spiders are installed as road underdogs in a non-conference contest the Under has been money posting a record of 8-24-1 Under. TCU not to be outdone coming off a SU win and now facing a non-conference opponent they have gone Under with a record of 14-29 Under. If they are installed as a favorite in the same situation the Under has gone 5-15 Under including 4-13 Under as a home favorite. We want to play Under on CBB non-conference road underdogs coming off a SU win and an ATS loss as a home favorite in their last game because these games have posted a record of 16-30 Under. Solid support across the board for the low side of the oddsmakers number so we will follow and play the Under. Under
PICK MADE ON 3/21/2017 AT 5:45 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/21/2017 AT 9:16 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
3/21/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
RICHMOND SPIDERS VS. TCU HORNED FROGS

PICK: UNDER 149.0 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: A Pair of Cinderella’s takes the hardwood in an NIT Quarterfinal matchup on Tuesday night with the winner punching their ticket to Madison Square Garden. The Spiders pulled off a home victory over Oakland winning by four-points in their second-round contest. The Frogs had to go on the road to top-seeded Iowa and they needed overtime to pull off the upset and advance to this round. Both teams have averaged in the low seventies this season in scoring and they have also allowed their opponents to average in the low seventies. The team splits have a projected average of 74 points for the Horned Frogs and 67 points for the Spiders which put us well below the oddsmakers number of 149. The five-man splits have a low average as well with the combined average total for the game of only 139.02 points. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 140.22 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of -9.18 points against a total range of 148.5 to 150.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.6 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. When the Spiders are on the road and installed as an underdog we want to play the Under because they are 40-63-3 Under. If the Spiders went Over at home in their last game and now play on the road the Under has cashed the ticket with a record of 11-23 Under. If the Spiders are installed as road underdogs in a non-conference contest the Under has been money posting a record of 8-24-1 Under. TCU not to be outdone coming off a SU win and now facing a non-conference opponent they have gone Under with a record of 14-29 Under. If they are installed as a favorite in the same situation the Under has gone 5-15 Under including 4-13 Under as a home favorite. We want to play Under on CBB non-conference road underdogs coming off a SU win and an ATS loss as a home favorite in their last game because these games have posted a record of 16-30 Under. Solid support across the board for the low side of the oddsmakers number so we will follow and play the Under. Under
PICK MADE ON 3/21/2017 AT 5:48 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/21/2017 AT 5:49 PM EST
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3/21/2017

8:05 PM EST
NBA
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

PICK: UNDER 209 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: When we started work on tonight’s NBA board totals stood out as far as value was concerned and a few of the games that the public are playing to go Over have the numbers to support the low side tonight. One of those is the Memphis versus New Orleans in the Big Easy. These two clubs have played to the high side in four of the last five meetings in New Orleans. The Grizzlies were not playing well at all on the defensive end of the floor after the All-Star break but they have managed to plug the hole it looks like especially recently holding opponents to 92.8 points per game over their last four outings. They do seem to play up to the pace of New Orleans when in the Big Easy but this particular matchup has both teams coming up short of the century mark tonight. The team splits have a projected average of 99 points for the Grizzlies and 96 points for the Pelicans which put us well below the oddsmakers number of 209. The five-man splits have a higher average for both teams eclipsing the century mark but barely with them coming up short with a 201.4 game total average. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 200.5 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of -8.89 points against a total range of 208.0 to 210.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.36 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. We know when Memphis is coming off winning both straight up and against the spread in their last three contests and now face a conference foe they have gone Under at a rate of 19-41-2 Under. We want to play Under on NBA division home teams coming off a straight up and against the spread victory as a favorite in their last game because these games have gone Under at a rate of 29-51 Under. With the combination of strong fundamental numbers and strong tech elements all projecting a low scoring affair we will play the Under in the Big Easy Tuesday night. Under
PICK MADE ON 3/21/2017 AT 5:53 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/22/2017 AT 7:50 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/21/2017

9:00 PM EST
NCAAB
GEORGIA TECH VS. MISSISSIPPI

PICK: UNDER 144 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: For the NIT this bracket has been a little bit on the surprising side and the 6th seeded Yellow Jackets take on the 5th seeded Rebels of Ole Miss on Tuesday night in the Quarterfinals. Tech has made a much better showing in their tournament than the other six ACC teams that lost in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Their opponent from the SEC the Ole Miss Rebels have done a nice job in the NIT as well while three of their foes in the NCAA Tournament have cashed tickets to the Sweet Sixteen, somewhat of a surprise I think for the pundits. The Ole Miss Rebels come into this contest riding a wave of offense averaging 81.8 points per game over their last five outings. The Yellow Jackets used solid defense to get here and they have been really solid on that end of the floor all season. Georgia Tech has finished on the low side of the oddsmakers total in six of their last seven trips to the hardwood and they have only allowed one team to score more than seventy-one points against them in their last ten outings. The team splits have a projected average of 64 points for the Yellow Jackets and 69 points for the Rebels which put us well below the oddsmakers number of 145. The five-man splits have a low average as well with the combined average total for the game of only 135.48 points. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 136.17 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of -9.53 points against a total range of 144.5 to 146.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.85 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. We note the Ole Miss Rebels play to the Under when coming off an Over in their last game with a record of 12-28-1 Under. We want to play Under on postseason favorites coming off an Over on the road in their last game because they have a record of 36-61-1 Under their next time out. The momentum indicator has both teams coming up short of the number and the combination of all the other factors point to only one outcome which means we will play the Under on Tuesday night. Under
PICK MADE ON 3/21/2017 AT 5:51 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/21/2017 AT 11:21 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
PICKS FOR MONDAY, MARCH 20, 2017 [refresh]
3/20/2017

7:08 PM EST
NBA
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS. ORLANDO MAGIC

PICK: PHILADELPHIA 76ERS +5.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Philadelphia 76ers are on the road in Florida on Monday night for a game against the Magic with the tip set for 7:05PM EST. The last meeting between these two happened in Orlando as well and the Sixers came away with a 112 to 110 victory as a six and half point road underdog. Philadelphia has posted a record of 44-22 ATS this season as an underdog. They have also posted a record of 8-1 ATS their last nine away from the City of Brotherly Love. This Sixers team has been money all season for their backers they have cashed in fifteen of their last eighteen trips to the hardwood. The oddsmakers have been chasing this Sixers team making adjustments in an effort to change the pattern of losses for the book with no success to this point in the season. This run ATS didn’t just start this week or this month this team has been knocking down ATS wins out of the gate. Orlando has been burning cash as a favorite with a record of 3-11 ATS this season and at home with a record of 9-22-1 ATS their last thirty-two trips to the Disney hardwood. Orlando pulled off an upset on the road in the desert Friday night defeating Phoenix 109 to 103. There is no reason for the Magic faithful to get excited about that win in the desert as an underdog because Orlando has won just one time straight up out of fifteen opportunities in this situation this season. The road team has won six of the last seven meetings between the clubs and they have won all three this season. Orlando installed as a home favorite coming off an ATS win and going Under in their last game they are only 26-47-1 ATS. With Orlando installed as a home favorite coming off a SU and ATS win while going Under in their last game they are only 24-41-1 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.03 points. The BMM projects a point differential of -7.98 points with a line range of +5.0 to +7.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Philadelphia 76ers with a 73.7 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Philadelphia with an offensive-defensive differential of +7.21 with a transitional average of 40.66 and a conversion rate range of 44.53 to 46.9 percent in tonight’s contest. A check of our powerful database reveals a pair of league-wide systems that are active for tonights contest. We want to play ON NBA road teams coming off back-to-back ATS wins at home because these road teams are 105-68-6 ATS. The final system tells us to play ON NBA conference road underdogs in this price range coming off back-to-back straight up and ATS wins at home because these road underdogs are 54-33-4 ATS. The combination of strong fundamentals along with a solid play on the technical side we will take the points in Disney on Monday night. Take the points
PICK MADE ON 3/20/2017 AT 4:31 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/20/2017 AT 10:20 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 19, 2017 [refresh]
3/19/2017

7:10 PM EST
NCAAB
RHODE ISLAND RAMS VS. OREGON DUCKS

PICK: OVER 141.5 (-110)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Oregon Ducks faithful were concerned about their team’s chances in the tournament after senior forward Chris Boucher suffered a torn ACL in last week’s Pac 12 Tournament. After their first round win over Iona a game in which several players stepped up in Boucher’s absence including guard Tyler Dorsey who drained a season-high twenty-four points on nine of thirteen from the field in the Ducks 93 to 77 win over fourteenth seeded Iona. Tonight the Ducks take on a Rhode Island team that dispatched the number six seed Creighton in an upset 84 to 72. Following his teams loss to Creighton head coach Greg McDermott told reporters “Rhode Island plays like a Top 25 team and on the right night they can take anyone of the teams down in the tournament. The team splits in this contest project a high scoring affair with adjusted points per game average of 79.52 points for the Rams and an average of 81.44 points for the Ducks. The adjustments for the Ducks loss of Boucher have been made in each of our matrix averages and even with him out of the lineup the projected average has this one finishing on the high side of the oddsmakers number. The Momentum Indicator Matrix has both teams scoring above their season averages and they have combined to produce a record of 9-2 Over their last four and five trips to the hardwood which is added support for the high side average of the Momentum Matrix in this contest. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 149.94 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of +10.67 points against a total range of 139.0 to 141.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Over with a 74.52 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. In CBB non-conference contests we want to play OVER on favorites in the current price range who are coming off a SU/ATS win as a favorite in their last game which also went Over the posted total. The Over has a record of 103-73-3 ATS in this situation. During postseason games we want to play OVER on CBB postseason favorites coming off a game as a favorite and the game went Over the posted total. These postseason favorites have seen the Over cash at a rate of 109-72-1 Over. With all the factors combined there is only one side to play as far as the game total is concerned and that is the high side on Sunday night. Over
PICK MADE ON 3/19/2017 AT 1:37 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/20/2017 AT 4:30 PM EST
+5.00
[report pick]
3/19/2017

8:40 PM EST
NCAAB
SOUTH CAROLINA VS. DUKE

PICK: DUKE -6.5 (-105)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Gamecocks would seem to have a little bit of a home court advantage with the game being played in Greenville South Carolina but the Duke faithful travel and you are not talking about a long trip for their fans anyway. Duke entered the tournament riding a wave of momentum as one of the hottest teams in the nation while South Carolina backed their way in after dropping five of their last seven games to end the 2016-17 campaign. Even if the Gamecocks have more fans in the building it will not bother this Duke team who relishes the noise in opposing teams arenas. The Blue Devils suffered during the regular season at times but that can be attributed to injuries which plagued this Duke team most of the season. That is not the case now as they appear to be healthy across the board which is bad news for this Gamecocks team. South Carolina has played very well on defense this season although they can be too aggressive at times and it has come back to haunt them on occasion. This Duke team with Allen, Tatum and Kennard excel at penetration and getting to the foul line which will end the tournament run for the Gamecocks. South Carolina faced a Marquette team that is horrible at penetration and getting to the charity stripe they also lack the talent of this Duke team. South Carolina is 0-5 ATS following a straight up win in their last game while Duke has gone 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to the hardwood overall. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 14.71 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 9.32 points with a line range of -6.0 to -8.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Duke Blue Devils with a 74.58 percent advantage (that percentage qualifies Duke as a Trophy Club Best Bet) against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Duke with an offensive-defensive differential of +11.5 with a transitional average of 43.04 and an adjusted conversion rate differential of +8.72 percent favoring the Blue Devils. That is almost a double-digit advantage shooting the basketball for Duke when you add all of these factors up we have a very solid case for the Blue Devils to win and cover the spread tonight versus the Gamecocks in Greenville. We want to play AGAINST a CBB postseason underdog in this price range when coming off an ATS win and going Over in their last game because these postseason underdogs are 32-58-3 ATS. As we mentioned above the key elements and matrix averages all point to Duke winning and covering the spread tonight versus South Carolina. Lay the chalk with the Blue Devils
PICK MADE ON 3/19/2017 AT 1:38 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/19/2017 AT 11:37 PM EST
-5.50
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 18, 2017 [refresh]
3/18/2017

5:15 PM EST
NCAAB
NORTHWESTERN VS. GONZAGA

PICK: OVER 140 (-110)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Gonzaga Bulldogs rolled past their first round foe in the NCAA Tournament winning by twenty points which is certainly not uncommon for this group of Bulldogs. The Wildcats of Northwestern were almost to the point of having to make arrangements for the offseason until Vanderbilt guard Matthew Fisher-Davis committed an intentional foul that he did not need to commit. With that foul it allowed the Wildcats to drain two free throws and get grab a victory 68 to 66. Do not know the kid Matthew Fisher-Davis but most serial killers have three names don’t they? I am sure he is a good kid but made a terrible mistake hopefully he can move on from that but it has allowed the Cats to advance to this matchup. Our interest is not in the game which Gonzaga should win with ease but covering is another story and our focus is on the total because that is where we find solid value. The oddsmakers have a total of 137.5 on this contest and our numbers tell us this one will go Over that total. The Bulldogs have been an Over machine during the Month of March posting a record of 50-32 Over their last eighty-two trips to the hardwood. The Over has been decimated when they take the court in a neutral arena posting a record of 75-57 Over including 18-6 Over the last twenty-four neutral court affairs. When investigating their total numbers in tournament play we see the same thing with a record of 64-49 Over in all tournament games which includes a record of 27-12-3 Over in NCAA Tournament action. Gonzaga has pushed the total Over in twenty of twenty-nine postseason games overall. If Zaga is coming off a straight up win in the postseason they are 16-5 Over. When they win the game but lose against the spread in their last game they are 28-14-1 Over including 8-1 Over in the current price range. What we found in our research was the Bulldogs score enough to force the Overs in these matchups. In some of the cases we found the past results and the style of play of their opponent prior to taking the court against the Bulldogs would seem to project a low scoring affair and an Under is in the offing but those are not the results we ended up with. Northwestern has gone Over in four of their last five trips to the hardwood this season and posted a record of 65-51-4 Over when facing non-conference foes. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 144.8 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of +8.95 points against a total range of 137.0 to 139.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Over with a 74.03 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 10.64 with a transitional average of 43.08. Based on their season-to-date numbers we see Gonzaga averages about seventeen more points per one-hundred possessions than Northwestern. That tells us two things right off the bat, Gonzaga should win this game and they could possibly force the game Over without any help from the Wildcats. We want to play OVER on CBB postseason favorites coming off an ATS loss as a favorite and the game going Under because their next contest goes Over at a rate of 129-79-2 Over.
PICK MADE ON 3/18/2017 AT 1:36 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/18/2017 AT 8:21 PM EST
+5.00
[report pick]
3/18/2017

7:40 PM EST
NCAAB
SAINT MARYS CA VS. ARIZONA

PICK: SAINT MARYS CA +4 (-110)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Arizona Wildcats breezed through their first matchup in the Big Dance easily defeating the North Dakota Fighting Hawks 100 to 82 as 18-point favorites. The Number 7 seeded St. Mary’s took care of business in their first matchup also taking down Virginia Commonwealth 85 to 77 as four-point favorites. Arizona forward Lauri Markkanen had twenty points and six rebounds in Thursday’s win over No. 15 seed North Dakota. The Wildcats dominated the paint and shot 58 percent from the field. The 7-foot freshman averaged 20 points leading the Wildcats to the Pac-12 tournament title but tonight’s opponent has a serious player down low also in Jock Landale who averages 16.2 points per game to go with his 9.2 boards per game. Landale recorded his sixteenth double-double of the season in the win over VCU. This kid is 6’ 11” and shoots sixty-three percent on the inside plus he is solid from the charity stripe which makes him even more valuable to his team and an even bigger threat to their opponents, no hack a shaq here. Not only do the Gaels have one of the best big men in the game they also have a few assassins from the three-point line shooting forty percent on the season. A quick check of the team splits and five-man splits we see that the Gaels are much more efficient when it comes to scoring the ball they actually hold an edge of over two and half points per one hundred possessions. This from a team that is catching as much as six-points in some shops now but plus five to five and half across the board. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 3.93 points. The BMM projects a point differential of -9.58 points with a line range of +5.0 to +7.5. The BSIM Matrix has the St. Mary’s Gaels with a 74.2 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has St. Mary’s with an offensive-defensive differential of +6.16 with a transitional average of 40.4 and a conversion rate range of 48.87 to 50.97 percent in tonight’s contest. St. Mary’s coming off a SU win versus a team with a win percentage of .667 or better and now play in the current price range of 3 to 6.5 they are a perfect 6-0 ATS. We also have a pair of league-wide systems that tell us to play ON CBB road teams in the current price range coming off a straight up victory as a favorite over a team with a win percentage of .667 or better. These road teams are 88-63-5 ATS. We want to play ON CBB road teams in the current price range coming off a game against a team with a win percentage of .667 or better and the game went Over the posted total because these road teams are 67-44-1 ATS. The Gaels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight trips to the hardwood overall while the Wildcats are a miserable 0-3-1 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games. We are going to back the Gaels on Saturday night as they shock the Wildcats. Take the points
PICK MADE ON 3/18/2017 AT 1:37 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/18/2017 AT 11:01 PM EST
-5.50
[report pick]
3/18/2017

10:38 PM EST
NBA
MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

PICK: MILWAUKEE BUCKS +10.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Milwaukee Bucks continue their Western Conference road trip by paying a visit to Oracle Arena in Oakland California on Saturday night. This is their fourth game of a six game West Coast road trip for the Bucks. It may seem to be a bad spot for the Bucks but we know they do a good job of covering the spread in this situation. Milwaukee after playing their last three games on the road have posted a record of 68-45 ATS in their next contest. The return of shooting guard Khris Middleton from a hamstring injury has been a huge factor in Milwaukee's recent resurgence scoring a season-best thirty points on eleven of eighteen shooting in the win over the Lakers. Middleton has scored in double digits in ten straight games and averaging 18.4 points in the month of March. The Bucks have used their solid play of late to put up some solid numbers going 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the number their last nine trips to the hardwood. With the Warriors coming off a straight up and against the spread victory as a home favorite and now face the Milwaukee Bucks they are perfect in this situation but the news is not good for Warriors backers because their team is 0-5 ATS in this situation. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.24 points. The BMM projects a point differential of -9.17 points with a line range of +10.5 to +12.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Milwaukee Bucks with a 73.6 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Milwaukee with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.95 with a transitional average of 42.03 and a conversion rate range of 48.41 to 50.36 percent in tonight’s contest. A check of our powerful NBA database reveals a league wide system that is active in this contest on Saturday night. We want to play ON NBA road underdogs coming off an ATS loss and going Under in their last game because they are 107-79-3 ATS the next time they take the hardwood. Take the points
PICK MADE ON 3/18/2017 AT 5:54 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/19/2017 AT 1:19 AM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 17, 2017 [refresh]
3/17/2017

7:10 PM EST
NCAAB
WICHITA STATE VS. DAYTON

PICK: WICHITA STATE -6.5 (-115)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Wichita State Shockers come into the tournament with a chip on their shoulder after having been seeded tenth. This for a team that won thirty games ranked in the Top Ten and holds the second largest win margin in the nation. The Flyers backers seem to think they were disrespected because they were seeded seventh and come into this contest as a five to six point underdog. The Shockers on the other hand won the regular season and tournament titles in the Missouri Valley Conference. Dayton will need to turn its momentum quickly after a disappointing end to the season that saw it drop the regular-season finale to George Washington before bowing out against ninth-seeded Davidson in its first A-10 tournament game. The Flyers not only lost those last two games straight up they them against the spread also. The Momentum Indicator Matrix has the Flyers trending in negative territory while their opponent is solidly in positive numbers and have been for quite some time. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 14.03 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 9.64 points with a line range of -5.5 to -7.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Wichita State Shockers with a 74.07 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Wichita State with an offensive-defensive differential of +9.53 with a transitional average of 42.27 and a conversion rate range of 47.86 to 49.78 percent in tonight’s contest. With Dayton coming off a SU/ATS loss while going Under we want to play against them because they have a record of 11-23 ATS in this situation. The Shockers have been money when playing on the road they are 104-73-3 ATS including 34-14-1 ATS when installed as road chalk. Wichita State coming off a straight up win and now installed as a road favorite they are 51-29-1 ATS. If Wichita State won their last game against the spread they are 108-74-6 ATS their next time out. These tech elements support their strong Momentum Matrix numbers as you can see they are not only strong when it comes to winning the games they are also a very solid bet against the spread. This team has a long history of winning and covering the spread it is not something they just developed this season. If the Shockers won against the spread in their last game and now have been installed as a favorite they are 82-57-5 ATS including 38-16-2 ATS as a favorite in this situation. In the postseason the Shockers have gone 12-2 ATS their last fourteen in the current price range including a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road favorite in this situation. Wichita State coming off a SU win and playing on the postseason road have gone 11-2 ATS including a perfect 6-0 ATS as a favorite in the current price range. Our CBB Postseason Database reveals a pair of systems that are active for this contest. Play ON postseason road teams coming off a game as a favorite versus a team with a win percentage of at least .667 and the game went Under the posted total. These play ON teams are 107-69-3 ATS. If our play ON team is coming off a SU and ATS win in that same situation their record is 67-42-2 ATS. With significant support for the Shockers we will lay the chalk here as they roll past an overmatched Dayton team on Friday night. Lay the chalk
PICK MADE ON 3/17/2017 AT 6:21 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/17/2017 AT 9:57 PM EST
-5.50
[report pick]
3/17/2017

8:08 PM EST
NBA
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. MIAMI HEAT

PICK: UNDER 206.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The matchup in South Beach on Friday night has strong fundamental support for the low side of the oddsmakers numbers as well as strong technical elements that also favor the Under here. Both teams momentum matrix averages for this contest have them coming up well short of the century mark in fact both are in the low nineties. In five of the seven math modules the Timberwolves average points scored for this contest is just 89.22 while the Heat are not faring much better with an average points scored of 91.37. The Heat coming off an ATS win at home and are now playing on their home court again have posted a record of 71-101-1 Under including 42-81-1 Under if they are installed as a home favorite. Minnesota coming off a SU loss in their last game and now taking on the Miami Heat have gone Under at a rate of 5-14 Under the last nineteen meetings. If Minnesota is coming off a SU loss and now installed as an underdog against the Heat they have posted a record of 2-12 Under the last fourteen in this situation. If the Timberwolves lost SU and went Over in their last game and now face the Heat as an underdog they are 1-11 Under the last twelve meetings. With strong support across the board for the low side makes this an easy call for our NBA Total Play of the Day. Both teams struggle to score the ball in South Beach Friday night. Under
PICK MADE ON 3/17/2017 AT 6:22 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/17/2017 AT 11:00 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
3/17/2017

9:55 PM EST
NCAAB
KENT VS. UCLA

PICK: OVER 162.5 (-110)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Bruins ended the regular season ranked No. 3 in the nation in the coaches' poll, but was eliminated in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament, leaving the Bruins seeded third in the South Region heading into their first-round game Friday against 14th-seeded Kent State in Sacramento. The Bruins showed few vulnerabilities while going unbeaten in nonconference play, then came back to beat the three Pac-12 teams that defeated them earlier in the season. Kent State earned its first tournament berth since 2008 by beating rival Akron in the Mid-Atlantic Conference tournament final on Saturday, its fourth win in six days. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 170.2 points. The BMM projects a game TOTAL differential of 10.7 points with a total range of 160.5 to 163.0. The BSIM Matrix has the Over with a 73.98 percent advantage against the oddsmakers Total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Over with an offensive-defensive differential of +11.05 with a transitional average of 44.47 in tonight’s contest. Kent coming off a straight up win as an underdog has gone 18-6-3 Over in their next trip to the hardwood. Kent coming off a road game versus a team with a win percentage of .667 or better and now playing on the road they have gone 14-5-1 Over including 13-2 Over if they are installed as a road underdog. UCLA coming off a SU and ATS loss on the road in their last game and now installed as a favorite have seen the Over cash at a rate of 23-9-1 Over. If their last game went Over the posted total and they lost both straight up and against the spread they have seen the Over cash as a favorite at a rate of 15-5 Over their last twenty qualifying contests. We want to play Over on postseason road underdogs coming off a straight up win and going Under as an underdog in their last game because the record for this system is 116-82-2 Over. The high side has strong support from both teams fundamental averages as well as strong situational support so we will play this one to sail Over the oddsmakers total on Friday night. Over
PICK MADE ON 3/17/2017 AT 6:22 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/18/2017 AT 12:40 AM EST
+5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 16, 2017 [refresh]
3/16/2017

7:25 PM EST
NCAAB
VERMONT VS. PURDUE

PICK: PURDUE -8.5 (-115)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Vermont Catamounts come into the Big Dance riding a 21 game win streak and a 29-5 SU record on the season. They did face lower level competition nothing like what they will face tonight in what could be an NBA frontline. The Catamounts failed all three times they faced tourney teams this season losing by an average of a dozen points in each of those contests. Vermont’s stats look incredible shooting fifty percent from the field which ranks them ninth in the nation and allowing a meager 61.6 points per game which ranks eleventh in the nation but remember the schedule it didn’t include teams like they will face tonight other than the three teams they lost to. Vermont is 8-18-1 ATS their last twenty-seven games overall. They are also 6-16-2 ATS coming off a straight up win in their last game and 4-12-1 ATS facing a team with a win percentage of 600 or higher. The Catamounts will have trouble with Purdue’s 6-9 Big 1o Player of the Year Caleb Swanigan who averages 18.7 points per game and grabs 12.6 rebounds per game which ranks second nationally. Unfortunately for the boys from Vermont he is not the only force in the paint for the Boilers they will have to try and contain Vince Edwards who is a 6-8 junior that averages 13 points per game and the monster off the bench 7-2 Isaac Haas who averages 13 points per game. From the outside the Boilers have guard Carsen Edwards who drops over ten points per game and controls the pace and tempo of the game. Purdue is coming off a first round exit in the Big 10 Tournament having been upset by Michigan as the Number One seed. We know that number four seeds coming in off a straight up favorite loss are a solid 21-5 SU and 19-5 ATS as single-digit favorites against thirteen seeds in opening round games. Purdue coming off a SU and ATS loss in their last game respond by posting a record of 67-40-1 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. Install the Boilermakers as the favorite in that same situation and they have a record of 40-20-1 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 20.05 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 11.63 points with a line range of -8.5 to -10.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Purdue Boilermakers with a 74.81 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Purdue with an offensive-defensive differential of +12.88 with a transitional average of 44.9 and a conversion rate range of 48.73 to 50.92 percent in tonight’s contest. The Momentum Matrix has the Catamounts trending very close to negative territory and they are coming in off a hard fought contest against Albany winning 56 to 53 as ten-point favorites. The splits favor Purdue here with a huge advantage and this difference continues when you look at their five-man splits which show the depth differential as well as the overall talent advantage the Boilers have over the Catamounts. Purdue has amassed a record of 21-8-3 ATS their last thirty-two contests where they were installed as chalk. The single-digit spread the oddsmakers assigned to this contest comes from the Boilers losing in the first round of their conference tournament and having been bounced twice in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. We are getting solid line value because of this and we expect the Boilermakers to come out fully focused and leave no doubt they are the better team. Lay the chalk
PICK MADE ON 3/16/2017 AT 5:35 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/16/2017 AT 10:01 PM EST
+4.78
[report pick]
3/16/2017

7:38 PM EST
NBA
BROOKLYN NETS VS. NEW YORK KNICKS

PICK: NEW YORK KNICKS -4.5 (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Brooklyn Nets are taking on the New York Knicks on Thursday night coming off their first win of the season against these Knicks last Sunday at Barclays Center winning 120 to 112. The Knicks had taken the first two meetings this season against the Nets before the game on Sunday. The Knicks have won the last three at home versus the Nets and we look for them to improve on that record tonight. Both clubs are suffering from injuries with Kilpatrick and Harris out for this contest and Lin expected to play even though he suffered a minor ankle injury in their last game which was two days ago. He did participate in yesterday’s practice and is expected to play tonight although he could still be affected by that sore ankle only one way to find out. The Nets coming off a game as an underdog and going Over the posted total have gone 29-51 ATS including 8-21 ATS if they are now on the road and 4-14 ATS in the current price range. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 10.96 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 7.89 points with a line range of -3.5 to -5.5. The BSIM Matrix has the New York Knicks with a 73.2 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has New York with an offensive-defensive differential of +7.78 with a transitional average of 40.3 and a conversion rate range of 44.43 to 46.07 percent in tonight’s contest. We look for the Knicks to bounce back and return to the norm when it comes to knocking off the Brooklyn Nets. Lay the short price
PICK MADE ON 3/16/2017 AT 5:36 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/16/2017 AT 10:37 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 14, 2017 [refresh]
3/14/2017

8:05 PM EST
NBA
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS VS. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS

PICK: OVER 214.0 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Trailblazers travel to the Big Easy for a game against the host Pelicans on Tuesday night. We have isolated this game for the total it currently has a range of 214 to 216.5 which there are more of the lower numbers out there and we like the high side here. The Blazers have been just that during the month of March leading the way in scoring with an average of 119 points per game while the Pelicans check in with an average of 101 points per game. As far as controlling the pace and tempo the Blazers should be able to get the Pelicans into their style of play especially sense the Blazers will give up some easy baskets to the Pelicans. The Blazers have been perfect going 5-0 Over when playing on one day of rest. Portland is 38-16 Over coming off a straight up win in their last game. New Orleans coming off an ATS win as an underdog in a game that went Over the posted total have gone 34-12-1 Over their next time out. With the Pelicans coming off a SU and ATS win as an underdog in a game that went Over the posted total have gone Over again in their next game posting a record of 15-5 Over the last twenty qualifying contests. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 222.7 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +8.3 points against a total range of 214.0 to 216.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 73.75 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 9.26 with a transitional average of 42.9 and a conversion rate range of 45.82 to 47.33 percent in tonight’s contest. We want to play OVER on NBA home teams coming off a SU and ATS victory as an underdog in a game that went Over the posted total because these games have finished on the high side with a record of 213-165-3 Over. This should be a back and forth contest with a ton of scoring so we will play this one to sail Over the oddsmakers number in the Big Easy on Tuesday night. Over
PICK MADE ON 3/14/2017 AT 5:49 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/16/2017 AT 5:34 PM EST
-4.50
[report pick]
3/14/2017

9:10 PM EST
NCAAB
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS VS. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS

PICK: WAKE FOREST +2 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: These two clubs have not met before this will be the first meeting of the two but Deacons head coach Danny Manning is quite familiar with the boys from Manhattan after a serious career of his own on the hardwood in Lawrence. Wake Forest started playing more consistently as the year progressed pulling off a huge upset of Louisville 88 to 81 and they went on the road to Blacksburg and defeated a pesky Hokies team 89 to 84 back on March 4. Wake Forest is averaging 82.7 points per game compared to Kansas State’s 71.7 points per game. The Deacons put those numbers up in a much tougher conference than the one State plays in and the Cats three guard attack should struggle against an athletic group of big men on the Deacons end of the floor. When playing on a neutral court this year, Wake Forest has averaged 88.0 points per game on 52.3 percent from the field and on the defensive end of the floor they have allowed 83.0 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting. The Deacons are ranked 16th in the nation in scoring but their defense has been suspect which shouldn’t hurt them here as the Wildcats are not a good offensive team. Wake Forest is 8-2 ATS when facing teams from the Big 12 Conference and they are also 6-1 ATS when playing with rest. Wake Forest is coming of a game in which they went Over the posted total versus a quality opponent and now face a non-conference foe we want to play ON them here with their record of 9-2 ATS the last eleven qualifying contests. If Wake Forest lost ATS in that previous contest they are a perfect 6-0 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. The Wildcats have played pretty well on the defensive end of the floor this year, but a closer look at their last ten games shows us that they have struggled on several occasions versus good offensive teams. In their most recent outing in the Big 12 Tournament they did hold a good West Virginia offense to only 51 points but they also faced Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia earlier and they allowed an average of 81.4 points per game in those contests. Even though Wake is not strong on the defensive end of the court the Cats have only managed to average 61.4 points per game over their last five and they have not scored more than seventy-nine points in regulation in each of their last thirteen trips to the hardwood. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 4.68 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 8.43 points with a line range of +1.5 to +3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Wake Forest Deacons with a 73.52 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Wake Forest with an offensive-defensive differential of +9.71 with a transitional average of 42.2 and a conversion rate range of 46.6 to 48.3 percent in tonight’s contest. The team splits show the Deacons with a strong advantage on the offensive end of the court but they come up just short on the defensive end splits even though the scoring average shows Kansas State with the better defensive scoring average overall. So we have the much better offensive team with a huge edge on offense and the better defensive team holding only a minor advantage on that end of the floor which makes this an easy call the Demon Deacons. The five-man splits have Wake Forest with a decent size advantage overall which tells the same story Wake Forest is the play tonight. A check of our powerful college basketball database reveals a pair of systems that are active in tonight’s battle. We want to play ON CBB teams coming off a game as a favorite versus a winning team with a win percentage of sixty percent or better and going Over the posted total because these teams are 49-26-2 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. We want to play AGAINST CBB road teams coming off a SU loss on the road versus a winning team with a win percentage of at least sixty percent because these road teams are only 43-69-5 ATS. The public are backing Kansas State and their defense well the ole saying defense wins championships doesn’t hold true here as Wake advances to the next round. Take the points
PICK MADE ON 3/14/2017 AT 5:47 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/16/2017 AT 5:34 PM EST
-4.50
[report pick]
PICKS FOR MONDAY, MARCH 13, 2017 [refresh]
3/13/2017

7:05 PM EST
NBA
CHICAGO BULLS VS. CHARLOTTE HORNETS

PICK: CHARLOTTE HORNETS -7 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Chicago Bulls travel to Charlotte North Carolina for a game against the host Charlotte Hornets on Monday night. The Bulls continue to struggle and their schedule is not going to get any easier after tonight they play five straight against teams that entered play on Sunday at .500 or better on the season. The Bulls managed just nine first quarter points and only twenty-six at prior to halftime in their most recent loss on Sunday losing 100 to 80 at Boston. That was their fifth consecutive loss which is a season-high for the boys from Second City. Bulls star Jimmy Butler was held to five points in the loss and the Bulls as a team where held under the century mark for the sixth straight game. Butler has mentioned the frustration with the Bulls inability to find a successful rotation. The Hornets have reached 120 or more points in back-to-back games for the first time this season. Hornets veteran Marvin Williams has played a big role in those games scoring twenty-seven points and grabbing ten rebounds on Saturday for his third straight double-double. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 14.24 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 7.77 points with a line range of -5.5 to -7.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Charlotte Hornets with a 73.5 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Charlotte with an offensive-defensive differential of +7.45 with a transitional average of 41.3 and a conversion rate range of 44.1 to 46.7 percent in tonight’s contest. Charlotte coming off an ATS loss and going Over as a favorite in their last game and now play at home have posted a record of 7-0 ATS. The Bulls coming off back-to-back losses as an underdog and now play as a road underdog in the current price range have gone 1-13 ATS the last fourteen qualifying contests. We want to play AGAINST NBA conference road underdogs in this price range coming off back-to-back SU and ATS losses as an underdog because these road pups are only 46-70-2 ATS. The combination of all these key elements pointing to the Hornets we will lay the chalk in Charlotte on Monday night.
PICK MADE ON 3/13/2017 AT 4:56 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/14/2017 AT 5:45 PM EST
-4.50
[report pick]
3/13/2017

8:05 PM EST
NBA
WASHINGTON WIZARDS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

PICK: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES -1.5 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Washington Wizards are in the Twin Cities to play their final game in a six-game road swing. The road has been kind to the boys from DC winners of five-straight and looking to end their road trip with a perfect 6-0 record. There is one major road block it’s a Timberwolves team that has been playing some solid basketball of late. The Wolves are 6-3 SU their last nine and 4-2 SU their last six overall. They have also covered eight of their last nine games. The Wizards built their recent streak playing basically the bottom of the Western Conference when it comes to wins and losses as well their defensive prowess or lack thereof. The Wizards have allowed an average of more than three points per game over their opponent’s season scoring average and in the pros that is a significant number. The Western Conference teams they faced allowed them to score 131, 123, 130 and 125 points. For the most part the Wizards have needed late rallies and overtime to get some of those victories with a small average margin of victory. Winning teams do find a way to win especially against bad teams that is not what they will face tonight the Timberwolves have played much better of late. The Timberwolves have played several of the best teams from the Western Conference to build their winning streak both SU and ATS with the likes of Houston, San Antonio, LA Clippers and Golden State. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.52 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 8.17 points with a line range of -1.0 to -3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 73.94 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Minnesota with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.87 with a transitional average of 42.55 and a conversion rate range of 46.72 to 48.8 percent in tonight’s contest. The Wizards winning and going Over on the road in their last game are only 38-68 ATS their next time out. Washington winning SU as an underdog in their last game and now installed as an underdog in the current game have only posted a record of 57-87-2 ATS and if they are a road underdog in this situation their record is just 37-65-2 ATS. With Minnesota coming off a SU and ATS loss their last time out and they have been installed as the favorite in a game versus Washington they are almost perfect ATS with a record of 7-1 against the oddsmakers number in this situation. We will lay the short price with the home team coming off a SU loss facing a team riding a multi-game win streak with low matrix averages across the board. Lay the chalk
PICK MADE ON 3/13/2017 AT 4:58 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/14/2017 AT 5:44 PM EST
+4.09
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 12, 2017 [refresh]
3/12/2017

3:00 PM EST
NCAAB
MICHIGAN VS. WISCONSIN

PICK: MICHIGAN +2 (-115)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Badgers and Wolverines face off on Sunday afternoon to decide the Big Ten Tournament Champion. This contest is scheduled to tip at 3PM Eastern Time and the game can be seen on CBS Television. The Wisconsin Badgers did not surprise anyone by advancing to the championship game it was expected but their opponent is somewhat of a surprise although they defeated a Number 1 seed for the second straight season as they kicked Purdue to the curb. These two clubs split their two regular season meetings with the home team grabbing the victory in each contest while the Wolverines covered the spread in both contests. The Wolverines have covered four of the last five meetings with the underdog controlling the spread outcome by going 13-3 ATS in the last sixteen series meetings. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 5.49 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 7.05 points with a line range of +1.0 to +3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Michigan Wolverines with a 72.34 percent advantage against the spread in today’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Michigan with an offensive-defensive differential of +6.3 with a transitional average of 41.68 and a conversion rate range of 46.41 to 48.39 percent in today’s contest. When the Wolverines have been installed as an underdog in this price range and they are coming off a SU and ATS victory their last time out are a perfect 6-0 ATS. Michigan has been strong when playing away from home when it comes to covering the spread especially when they are coming off a road game and are now installed as a road underdog posting a record of 22-9 ATS in this situation. With Michigan coming off a SU and ATS win on the road and now play in a game with a small line range of pick to -3.0 the Wolverines are perfect in the role of favorite or underdog posting a record of 11-0 ATS in this situation. The Momentum Indicator has the Wolverines in positive territory while the Badgers numbers have slipped not yet in negative territory but getting close. We will keep an eye on them as the Big Dance plays out. The team split differential favors the Wolverines and the five-man splits also give an edge to Michigan in this contest. With all the ammo on the side of the underdog we will take the points on Sunday as Michigan wins the Big 10 Conference Tournament Championship.
PICK MADE ON 3/12/2017 AT 11:51 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/12/2017 AT 5:20 PM EST
+3.91
[report pick]
3/12/2017

9:08 PM EST
NBA
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS VS. PHOENIX SUNS (FREE PICK)

PICK: OVER 232 (-110)

RISK: 3 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: Both teams are in the back half of a back-to-back with the Trailblazers taking on the Wizards at home while the Suns had to travel to the Big D to take on the Mavericks. The oddsmakers didn’t seem to think the public would care about that fact because they a hung a high total on this game of 232 points. The Trailblazers are 0-1 Under when the total is at least 230 points this season but the Suns have a record of 3-2 Over with a total of at least 230 points this season. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 238.4 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of +6.98 points against a total range of 231.0 to 233.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the Over with a 69.2 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. Portland has gone 36-26 Over this season including 11-5 Over when the total is at least 220 points with a 5-2 Over mark on the road in this situation. Phoenix has posted a record of 40-25 Over this season including 20-11 Over at home. The Suns are 12-3 Over versus Northwest Division foes this season. Phoenix has gone 31-9 Over revenging a straight up loss. When it comes to facing teams that allow at least 106 points per game the Suns have gone Over at a rate of 20-8 Over. Also when facing teams that average scoring at least 106 points per game the Suns have seen the Over cash at a rate of 16-6 Over. We will play this one to finish on the high side on Sunday night in the desert. Over
PICK MADE ON 3/12/2017 AT 12:01 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/12/2017 AT 11:38 PM EST
-3.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 11, 2017 [refresh]
3/11/2017

6:00 PM EST
NCAAB
IOWA STATE VS. WEST VIRGINIA

PICK: WEST VIRGINIA -2.5 (-115)

RISK: 6 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Iowa State Cyclones face off against the Mountaineers of West Virginia on Saturday in Kansas City this championship contest will be carried by ESPN with the tip set for 6PM Eastern Time. This will be the third meeting between the two clubs this season with the last coming just eight days ago in Morgantown with the host taking another victory over the Cyclones 87 to 76. The first meeting took place in Ames in late January and this game had a similar outcome with the Mountaineers winning and this time in a hostile environment 85 to 72. Iowa State is coming off a blowout win on Friday versus TCU winning 84 to 63 dominating on both ends of the floor. In the victory Iowa State shot an astounding 56 percent from the field while holding the Horned Frogs to just 39 percent from the field. The Mountaineers had a battle on their hands with Kansas State using a late rally to snatch the victory 51 to 50. West Virginia allowed fifty-three and fifty-points in their first two tournament games this week playing very well on the defensive end of the floor. The Mountaineers have won six of their last seven games overall but they have failed to cover in five of those contests. The Reverse Momentum Indicator has the Cyclones slipping into negative territory based on their play and situational elements leading into this contest. West Virginia on the other hand is solidly in positive territory after showing they could rebound after falling well behind their opponent during tournament play and not playing their best basketball at the time, this is especially important because two of those games that make up their momentum average came in tournament action. In most cases teams step up their play this time of the year. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.32 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 9.15 points with a line range of -1.5 to -3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the West Virginia Mountaineers with a 74.96 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has West Virginia with an offensive-defensive differential of +9.22 with a transitional average of 43.6 and a conversion rate range of 46.78 to 49.9 percent in tonight’s contest. The overall splits favor the boys from Morgantown as do the five-man splits with a larger advantage in fact in the five-man splits. The Reverse Momentum Indicators average is also reflected in the Cyclones overall average here. West Virginia coming off a SU win in which the game went Under the posted total and they are now playing a postseason contest have posted a record of 12-3 ATS and 11-1 ATS if they were favored in that contest. The Mountaineers after winning and going Under in their last game and they are now installed as a postseason favorite they have been perfect posting a record of 7-0 ATS. We want to play AGAINST CBB postseason road teams coming in off a SU win as a favorite and going Over the posted total and now play in the current price range because these teams are only 59-83-3 ATS. With significant support across the board for the West Virginia Mountaineers we will lay the chalk here as they win the Conference Title on Saturday night. Lay the chalk
PICK MADE ON 3/11/2017 AT 12:34 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/11/2017 AT 8:37 PM EST
-6.00
[report pick]
3/11/2017

9:08 PM EST
NBA
PHOENIX SUNS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS

PICK: DALLAS MAVERICKS -5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/11/2017 AT 2:40 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/11/2017 AT 11:56 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
3/11/2017

9:08 PM EST
NBA
ATLANTA HAWKS VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

PICK: OVER 203.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/11/2017 AT 2:40 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/11/2017 AT 11:57 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 10, 2017 [refresh]
3/10/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS

PICK: DUKE BLUE DEVILS +4.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/10/2017 AT 5:33 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/11/2017 AT 9:27 AM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/10/2017

9:00 PM EST
NCAAB
CALIFORNIA VS. OREGON

PICK: OREGON -8.5 (-115)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/10/2017 AT 5:34 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/10/2017 AT 11:39 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 09, 2017 [refresh]
3/9/2017

3:00 PM EST
NCAAB
RICE VS. UTEP

PICK: UTEP +2 (-115)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: During March Madness (tournament play) we may not have our normal write-ups for each selection. We will provide all the matrix numbers for each contest but that may be all there is for some of these plays. The Conference USA Tournament is taking place at Legacy Arena in Birmingham Alabama and our featured best bet from the Quarterfinals has the Miners of UTEP taking on the Owls of Uncle Ben. The Miners have been money making machine this season cashing their last thirteen contests in row. This UTEP team is a only a few points short of a perfect 15-0 straight up record completely turning their season around after winning just two games in their first fifteen to start the season. These two clubs met just once this season back in mid-February with the Miners catching eight points and winning the game SU 79 to 71. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 4.06 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 7.31 points with a line range of +2.5 to +4.5. The BSIM Matrix has the UTEP Miners with a 74.8 percent advantage against the spread in today’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has UTEP with an offensive-defensive differential of +5.82 with a transitional average of 40.5 and a conversion rate range of 45.98 to 47.8 percent in today’s contest. The Owls of Uncle Ben University have posted a perfect record of 0-5 ATS when installed as chalk their last five trips to the hardwood. The Miners on the other hand have posted a perfect record also with an 8-0 ATS record when catching points their last eight games overall. The underdog has dominated this series of late with a record of 5-0 ATS the last five meetings. With Uncle Ben winning as a favorite in their last game we know they struggle ATS their next time out with a record of 15-29-1 ATS. If they face a division opponent in this same situation they are only 2-14 ATS including a perfect 0-6 ATS if they are installed as a division favorite. The Miners coming off a win ATS and going Under in their last game are 39-17-2 ATS their next trip to the hardwood including 18-4 ATS if they are installed as an underdog. We want to play AGAINST a postseason road team who is coming off a SU win but and ATS loss in their last game because these teams are only 27-44-1 ATS. We want to play ON CBB division underdogs in this price range coming off a SU win in their last game because these teams have posted a record of 51-30-3 ATS. With solid support across the board for the Miners we will take the points on Thursday afternoon.
PICK MADE ON 3/9/2017 AT 2:18 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/9/2017 AT 5:41 PM EST
+4.78
[report pick]
3/9/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
TEXAS A&M VS. VANDERBILT

PICK: VANDERBILT -3 (-110)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The SEC Tournament taking place at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville Tennessee and our featured SEC Second Round Best Bet comes from the Commodores versus Aggies matchup. The Aggies have dropped the two previous meetings against the Dores this season and there is no reason to believe this game will be any different. The Aggies problem in both of those losses still exists in this one they have no perimeter shooting their only offensive game is down low and its hard to survive when you are that limited. The Commodores took a little time to adjust to their new schemes by their new head coach Bryce Drew but once they had a handle on it they reeled off an 8-3 record including 9-2 against the number. They won five of their final six games which included a win over a solid Gators team and the lone loss coming at a tough place to play Rupp Arena where the Wildcats defeated the Commodores by six points. Needless to say that was a quality loss for the Dores. Texas A&M is in a rebuilding year losing a ton of talent off last years team which is one of the reason they have no perimeter game to speak of. Even with all that talent last year facing pretty much the same Vandy team as this year the Aggies dropped their first meeting versus this Vanderbilt team losing by seventeen points. They did bounce back in the second game but it was a fight for them to get the victory. Vandy coming off a contest where they won SU and are now installed as a favorite have posted a record of 66-43-2 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 10.79 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 8.95 points with a line range of -2.5 to -4.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Vanderbilt Commodores with a 73.4 percent advantage against the spread in today’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Vanderbilt with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.3 with a transitional average of 42.8 and a conversion rate range of 44.37 to 46.52 percent in today’s contest. The Momentum Indicator has the Texas A&M Aggies trending in negative territory while the Commodores come in riding a wave of momentum and it projects a SU and ATS victory tonight. The splits also favor the Dores in this contest and the five-man splits are not close. Loaded with plenty of ammunition we will lay the short number with the Commodores on Thursday night as they roll to an easy victory over a disinterested Aggies team.
PICK MADE ON 3/9/2017 AT 2:19 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/9/2017 AT 9:20 PM EST
+5.00
[report pick]
3/9/2017

8:00 PM EST
NBA
SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

PICK: OVER 208.0 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The San Antonio Spurs make the trip to Oklahoma City for a one-game road trip against the host Thunder on Thursday night. Both teams enter this contest on streaks albeit completely different types of streaks with the Thunder losers of four in a row while the Spurs are winners of nine straight. Our focus is not on the side in this one it is on the total we are expecting this one to sail over the oddsmakers number on Thursday night. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 218.07 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +9.15 points against a total range of 208.0 to 210.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 73.8 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 10.55 with a transitional average of 43.4 and a conversion rate range of 46.73 to 48.59 percent in tonight’s contest. OKC coming off a SU and ATS loss while going Over in their last game and now installed as an underdog have posted a record of 79-55-1 Over. If OKC is facing a conference foe at home after suffering a SU loss at home as a favorite they have seen the high side post a record of 17-5-2 Over. San Antonio losing ATS at home in their last three games have posted a record of 15-3-1 Over and if they are now playing on the road that record improves to 12-1 Over. Solid support across the board for the high side so we will play this one to go Over the posted total on Thursday night. Over
PICK MADE ON 3/9/2017 AT 5:52 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/10/2017 AT 8:17 AM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
3/9/2017

8:08 PM EST
NBA
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (FREE PICK)

PICK: MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES -3 (-110)

RISK: 3 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Los Angeles Clippers are in Memphis for the final game of a mini two-game road trip that saw them play in the Twin Cities last night. Prior to their trip to Minnesota last night they were at home for a one-game home stand after another two-game mini road swing. One of the NBA’s many scheduling situations that can be taken advantage of during the regular season. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.94 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 6.91 points against the current line range of -2.5 to -4.5. Both of those primary matrix averages favor the hometown Grizzlies on Thursday night. Finally we want to play ON an NBA home team who lost their last game by ten or more points as a favorite and is playing with 2 days rest. The Grizzlies lost at home on Monday night to the Brooklyn Nets who were installed as 10.5 point road underdogs pulling off the upset 122 to 109. Our system listed above has a record of 69-41 ATS for 62.7 percent winners and calls for a play on the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday night.
PICK MADE ON 3/9/2017 AT 1:12 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/9/2017 AT 11:01 PM EST
-3.00
[report pick]
3/9/2017

9:00 PM EST
NCAAB
KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES VS. BUFFALO BULLS

PICK: KENT STATE +3 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The MAC Conference Tournament is taking place at the home of the World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland Ohio. The Bulls won eight of their last ten regular season games to earn a bye in this tournament but that is not always a positive they have been sitting for six days of course they practice but that cannot compare to game action. The Bulls record does not include any quality conference wins to speak of and they have an out of conference schedule ranking of 68th but they were drilled by those teams losing by thirty-three points to the Musketeers and twenty-one to the Bluejays. The Golden Flashes have already played a game in this tournament they had to take on the Chippewas of Central Michigan. They needed overtime to get the victory and advance. There may be some hesitation backing this Kent State team because of that performance but if you take a close look you see that Kent State is a solid basketball team. Central Michigan struggles defensively but they can score the basketball jumping out to a 26 to 9 lead against Kent State. Kent State withstood the pressure and forced that overtime period and pulled off the victory that has many playing against them tonight but not us we believe that game and how it played out will help them in this contest. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.82 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 6.67 points with a line range of +2.5 to +4.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Kent State Golden Flashes with a 73.75 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Kent State with an offensive-defensive differential of +6.49 with a transitional average of 40.35 and a conversion rate range of 43.6 to 45.7 percent in today’s contest. The Golden Flashes have a huge edge on the boards as one of the best teams in the country at grabbing rebounds and any basketball person knows offensive rebounds are the tools to break the other teams momentum. Kent State facing a conference foe after playing a game as a favorite have posted a record of 62-38-2 ATS. If the Golden Flashes won as a favorite in that same situation their record is 51-32-2 ATS including 20-8 ATS if they are playing away from home. We are going to back the better team here and take the points as Kent State puts these Bulls down again.
PICK MADE ON 3/9/2017 AT 5:50 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/10/2017 AT 8:20 AM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 08, 2017 [refresh]
3/8/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
GEORGETOWN VS. ST JOHNS

PICK: GEORGETOWN -1.5 (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK MADE ON 3/8/2017 AT 5:05 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/8/2017 AT 9:58 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
3/8/2017

8:30 PM EST
NCAAB
SE LOUISIANA VS. LAMAR

PICK: LAMAR -1 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK MADE ON 3/8/2017 AT 5:06 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/8/2017 AT 11:22 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/8/2017

9:30 PM EST
NCAAB
MISSOURI TIGERS VS. AUBURN TIGERS

PICK: AUBURN TIGERS -6 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK MADE ON 3/8/2017 AT 5:07 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/9/2017 AT 2:18 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 07, 2017 [refresh]
3/7/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
ST FRANCIS PA VS. MOUNT ST MARYS

PICK: ST FRANCIS PA +5 (-105)

RISK: 6 UNITS
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PICK WRITE-UP: The Northeast Conference Tournament heads to Knott Arena, Emmitsburg, Maryland where Mount St. Mary’s will play host to the Red Flash from St. Francis Pennsylvania on Tuesday night. These two clubs have met twice this season with the Mountaineers winning both contests and the last was in blowout fashion on the Red Flash home floor 81 to 62 was the final. The first meeting at the Mountaineers was quite a bit closer with the final score 78 to 72. Our numbers tell us this meeting will be more like the first meeting with the Flash controlling the pace and tempo of the game instead of being outshot and pushed up and down the floor like their trip to the hardwood versus this Mountaineers team. They did lose that first meeting but the pace and tempo splits along with the players scoring splits from the starting five and benches were really close in that first meeting with ST. Francis holding an advantage in some of those key metrics. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.12 points. The BMM projects a point differential of -7.56 points with a line range of +5.0 to +7.5. The BSIM Matrix has the St. Francis PA Red Flash with a 74.43 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has St. Francis PA with an offensive-defensive differential of +6.69 with a transitional average of 40.9 and a conversion rate range of 45.72 to 47.8 percent in tonight’s contest. We want to play ON CBB conference underdogs of +3.5 or more points playing with same-season double-revenge with a MM differential of 6.5 or more points because these conference puppies have cashed the winning ticket at a rate of 46-20-4 ATS including 9-0-2 ATS the last eleven qualifying contests. The Red Flash are a perfect 4-0 ATS their last four away from home and 4-0 ATS their last four as a road underdog in the current price range while the Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. We will take the points here as the Red Flash Shock an overconfident Mountaineers team on Tuesday night.
PICK MADE ON 3/7/2017 AT 3:11 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/7/2017 AT 9:21 PM EST
-6.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR MONDAY, MARCH 06, 2017 [refresh]
3/6/2017

9:08 PM EST
NBA
SACRAMENTO KINGS VS. DENVER NUGGETS

PICK: SACRAMENTO KINGS +12 (-115)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Sacramento Kings are in the Mile High City to take on the Denver Nuggets Monday night. The Kings played last night in Utah losing 110 to 109 as a ten-point road underdog. We are not concerned about the back-to-back situation because the Kings had a few days off prior to that game in Salt Lake. Denver hosted Charlotte on Saturday losing at home 112 to 102 as 5.5-point home favorites. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.96 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of -9.81 points with a line range of +11.5 to +13.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Sacramento Kings with a 74.37 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Sacramento with an offensive-defensive differential of +6.4 with a transitional average of 39.9 and a conversion rate range of 45.66 to 47.5 percent in tonight’s contest. The Nuggets have struggled in this series losing the last five meetings anywhere and the last meeting following the Cousins trade falling 116 to 100 in that game. The Nuggets have struggled just to win games even in the Mile High City and laying double-digits at home leaves us solid line value tonight. Take the points with the Kings
PICK MADE ON 3/6/2017 AT 5:24 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/6/2017 AT 11:39 PM EST
- - - - -
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 05, 2017 [refresh]
3/5/2017

1:00 PM EST
NCAAB
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS VS. IOWA HAWKEYES

PICK: IOWA HAWKEYES -6.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK MADE ON 3/5/2017 AT 12:01 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/6/2017 AT 8:24 AM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/5/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
IONA VS. SAINT PETERS

PICK: SAINT PETERS -3 (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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PICK MADE ON 3/5/2017 AT 3:22 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/5/2017 AT 10:21 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
3/5/2017

7:30 PM EST
NCAAB
WRIGHT STATE VS. NORTHERN KENTUCKY

PICK: OVER 148 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/5/2017 AT 3:22 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/5/2017 AT 10:41 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/5/2017

8:38 PM EST
NBA
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS

PICK: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +1 (-110)

RISK: 4 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/5/2017 AT 3:22 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/5/2017 AT 11:21 PM EST
-4.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 04, 2017 [refresh]
3/4/2017

3:00 PM EST
NCAAB
TCU VS. OKLAHOMA

PICK: OKLAHOMA -2.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/4/2017 AT 11:53 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/4/2017 AT 5:40 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/4/2017

3:30 PM EST
NCAAB
MISSOURI VS. AUBURN

PICK: AUBURN -8.5 (-115)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/4/2017 AT 11:55 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/4/2017 AT 6:01 PM EST
+4.35
[report pick]
3/4/2017

6:00 PM EST
NCAAB
SAN FRANCISCO VS. SANTA CLARA

PICK: SANTA CLARA (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/4/2017 AT 3:08 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/4/2017 AT 8:58 PM EST
+4.76
[report pick]
3/4/2017

6:08 PM EST
NBA
DETROIT PISTONS VS. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (FREE PICK)

PICK: PHILADELPHIA 76ERS +4.5 (-110)

RISK: 3 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Detroit Pistons travel to the City of Brotherly Love for a game against the host Philadelphia 76ers Saturday night. The Pistons and Sixers have split their two meetings this season both were played in Detroit. The Sixers are 22-8 ATS at home this season including a perfect 12-0 ATS since January 3 2017. Philadelphia played last night but no reason to worry because the Sixers have cashed five straight winning tickets against the spread in this situation. The Pistons have covered eight of their last ten when playing in a no rest situation. Another key tech element tells us Detroit as a road favorite coming off a SU/ATS win while going Under the posted total in their last game have produced a record of 14-29-1 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. Our BTPR Index has the Sixers with a 1.97 point advantage against the Pistons on Saturday. Our MM projects a point differential of 6.78 points against the current line range of +4.5 to +6.5 points. All the key elements of this matchup favor the hometown Philadelphia 76ers and that should translate into an easy against the spread victory for them on Saturday night.
PICK MADE ON 3/4/2017 AT 12:40 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/4/2017 AT 8:39 PM EST
-3.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 03, 2017 [refresh]
3/3/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES VS. BALL STATE CARDINALS

PICK: BALL STATE CARDINALS -4.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Huskies of Northern Illinois are Muncie Indiana to take on the Cardinals of Ball State University. The Huskies sit at .500 on the season with a 15-15 SU record while Ball State with a win tonight grab their twentieth and stay on top of the MAC West tied with the Broncos of Western Michigan. The Huskies have struggled of late against the spread over their last seven outings they have managed just one win against the spread and that came against a terrible Central Michigan club. We know when the Huskies are installed as underdogs and they are coming off an ATS loss in their last game they are only 8-20 ATS their next trip to the hardwood. If they lost both SU and ATS in their last game and now play as an underdog they are 6-17 against the spread including 0-8 ATS if they were a favorite in that loss. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 13.27 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 8.99 points with a line range of -4.5 to -6.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Ball State Cardinals with a 74.8 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Ball State with an offensive-defensive differential of +11.54 with a transitional average of 43.02 and a conversion rate range of 44.61 to 47.79 percent in tonights contest. The conversion rate range has one of the largest differences we have seen in a best bet this season and it is due in part to the actual shooting percentage differential between these two clubs it is almost 3 percentage points difference from the field. The Huskies also struggle from behind the arc where they are one of the nations worst teams when it comes to making three pointers with an average of only 30.8 percent converting just five per game. The game has changed over the last decade or so and it is now difficult to make up point differences when you cannot drain the trey. The Cardinals should be able to establish dominance on both ends of the floor controlling the pace of the game which will translate into a straight up and against the spread victory. Lay the short price here with Ball State on Friday night in Muncie.
PICK MADE ON 3/3/2017 AT 3:27 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/4/2017 AT 8:26 AM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/3/2017

7:05 PM EST
NBA
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS. ATLANTA HAWKS

PICK: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -2 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Cleveland Cavaliers are in the ATL to take on the host Atlanta Hawks on Friday night. These two met back in early November at Quicken where the Hawks ended an eleven game losing skid to the Cavs by defeating them 110 to 106 as +7.5-point road underdogs. The Cavaliers during that winning streak against the Hawks eliminated them in each of the past two postseasons sweeping the Hawks out of the playoffs each time. The Cavs are coming off a loss in Boston on Wednesday night and they have dropped their last three games to the number. We want to play ON NBA conference road favorites coming off a SU/ATS loss as a road underdog because these teams respond with a record of 30-16-1 ATS. Atlanta is coming off a home game against the Mavericks on Wednesday they pulled out the win 100 to 95 by hanging on at the end. The Hawks are 14-31-1 ATS at home coming off a home game their last time out. If they are coming off a home win and now face a conference opponent at home the Hawks are only 6-16-1 ATS. We want to play AGAINST NBA home underdogs in this price range coming off a SU win but an ATS loss in their last game because they are 14-28-1 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 10.67 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 9.78 points with a line range of -1.5 to -3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Cleveland Cavaliers with a 73.85 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Cleveland with an offensive-defensive differential of +7.91 with a transitional average of 41.8 and a conversion rate range of 45.44 to 47.3 percent in tonights contest. The Cavs having lost to the Hawks in their previous meeting this season qualify in one of our powerful NBA league-wide systems. We want to play ON NBA road favorites who are facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season matchup. These road favorites are 231-164-12 ATS for 58.5 percent winners including a record of 20-8 ATS the last twenty-eight qualifying contests. On Friday in the ATL the Cleveland Cavaliers get the call as our NBA Play of the Day. Lay the short price here with the Cavaliers.
PICK MADE ON 3/3/2017 AT 3:28 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/4/2017 AT 8:27 AM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
3/3/2017

8:08 PM EST
NBA
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS (FREE PICK)

PICK: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -3.5 (-115)

RISK: 3 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The LA Clippers are on the road in Milwaukee for a Friday night clash against the host Milwaukee Bucks. The Clippers are coming off a three-game home stand that saw them lose two of the three with the last one a blowout loss versus the Rockets a game in which they were installed as a 2.5 point home favorite and lost 122 to 103. The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in a one and one rest situation. The Bucks also enter off a home loss as a favorite losing to Denver 110 to 98 as 4.5 point home favorites their last trip to the hardwood. Several key situational elements call for a play on the Clippers here we also have a league-wide system that is active for this contest. We want to play ON NBA road favorites of ten or fewer points coming off a straight up loss as a favorite in their last game. A very simple system that asks us to back the better overall team coming off a game they should have won and are now expected to win the current contest. At an almost seventy percent clip they win straight up behind this system and they cover the spread with a record of 180-127-8 ATS for 58.6 percent winners. We are going to back the road team in Milwaukee on Friday night as the LA Clippers grab the straight up and against the spread victory over the hometown Bucks.
PICK MADE ON 3/3/2017 AT 12:43 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/3/2017 AT 10:58 PM EST
-3.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 02, 2017 [refresh]
3/2/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
HOUSTON VS. CINCINNATI

PICK: OVER 134 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Houston Cougars travel to the Queen City for an AAC battle against the host team Cincinnati Bearcats. Cincinnati opened the season much like some other teams talked about on these pages they reeled off a 22-2 SU record before running into some trouble. Over their last five games they have lost twice scoring 51 and 49 in the losses. The Bearcats went into Houston earlier this season and came away with a 67 to 58 victory over the Cougars. Houston has been on a roll of late winning seven of their last eight games overall but winning in the Queen City has been difficult for the Houston Cougars as the Bearcats own a 13-1 SU record against them here. Our interest is not on the side but the total and a quick glance we see the Under has been dominate of late here as well. There will be a change in that trend tonight maybe not on the side in this one but for sure the total will finish on the high side of the oddsmakers number. This series saw a total of 119 back in February 2015 and the oddsmakers have been chasing this total since then raising the number dramatically even though the games kept going Under. The total in their first meeting this season was set at 131.5 and they failed to reach that total scoring 125 total points cashing another Under. The oddsmakers have come right back raising the total for this one with a 133.5 tonight in Cincinnati. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 140.62 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +8.95 points against a total range of 132.5 to 135.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 73.8 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 10.63 with a transitional average of 41.54 and a conversion rate range of 46.66 to 48.43 percent in tonight’s contest. Houston has posted a record of 7-3 Over when playing away from Space City. With the Cougars coming off a conference game they are 10-5 Over and 10-6 Over versus conference opponents. Houston is 9-1 Over facing teams with a winning record after fifteen games have been played in the current season and 5-0 Over versus teams with a solid defense allowing an average of sixty-four or fewer points per game. Houston playing away from Space City are averaging 74.1 points per game versus teams that allow just 69.7 points per game. The Bearcats average 84.7 points per game in the Queen City versus teams that normally allow just 70.6 points per game. That is a big reason the Bearcats are 10-4 Over at home this season. Cincinnati is coming off a poor offensive performance in their last game although they had a strong defensive effort which triggers a pair of team angles that tell us Cincinnati is 9-6 Over after allowing sixty or fewer points and 4-2 Over after scoring sixty or fewer points. These two teams finally catch the oddsmakers number and push this one well over the posted total. Over
PICK MADE ON 3/2/2017 AT 4:09 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/2/2017 AT 9:20 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
3/2/2017

10:38 PM EST
NBA
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

PICK: OVER 220 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Thursday night featured TV Total takes place in Portland where the Oklahoma City Thunder come to town to take on the hometown Trailblazers a game which can be seen on TNT with the tip set for 10:30PM EST. The Thunder come into tonight winners of four straight games while Portland has lost seven of their last nine trips to the hardwood. OKC has not been a great road team this season and the Blazers do play better at home but our focus is on the total and not the side in this one. We have solid numbers supporting OKC on the high side of the oddsmakers total tonight. The Thunder playing on the division road coming off an Over in their last game have posted a record of 52-29 Over. Oklahoma City coming off a game as an Underdog and going Over and now play on the conference road they have seen the Over cash at a rate of 37-17-1 Over. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 230.4 points. The MM projects a total point differential of +10.47 points against a total range of 219.0 to 221.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Over with a 74.36 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Over with an offensive-defensive differential of 11.88 with a transitional average of 42.5 and a conversion rate range of 44.75 to 46.9 percent in tonight’s contest. Portland is coming off three games away from home and return to face the Thunder tonight they have posted a record of 62-41-2 Over in this situation. With the Blazers losing and going Over in their last game now taking on a division opponent they have posted a record of 6-0 Over in this situation. A check of our powerful NBA database reveals a pair of league-wide systems that are active for tonights game. We want to play OVER on NBA teams coming off a SU/ATS loss on the road and now must face a division opponent because these games have posted a record of 98-58-2 Over. If they are facing a division opponent at home in the same situation the record is 65-36-2 Over. With solid support from both teams we will play this one to finish on the high side of the oddsmakers number in Portland on Thursday night.
PICK MADE ON 3/2/2017 AT 4:08 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/3/2017 AT 1:40 AM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 01, 2017 [refresh]
3/1/2017

9:00 PM EST
NCAAB
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS VS. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS

PICK: LOUISVILLE CARDINALS -3 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/1/2017 AT 5:39 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/2/2017 AT 9:17 AM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
3/1/2017

9:00 PM EST
NCAAB
MICHIGAN STATE VS. ILLINOIS

PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +1.5 (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 3/1/2017 AT 5:39 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/1/2017 AT 11:39 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 2017 [refresh]
2/28/2017

8:30 PM EST
NCAAB
OHIO STATE VS. PENN STATE

PICK: PENN STATE -1.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Ohio State Buckeyes are in University Park to take on the hometown Penn State Nittany Lions Tuesday night a game that can be seen on the Big 10 Network with the tip set for 8:30PM Eastern Time. The Buckeyes have found the going tough this season with a record of 16-13 SU and 10-17 ATS coming off a 21 win season last year and still ended up in the NIT where you will more than likely find them this season. The Buckeyes were riding a three-game losing skid as they hosted the Wisconsin Badgers last Thursday night and they pulled off the upset winning 83 to 73. That could be their biggest win of the season it is to this point of the season and how will they respond on the road at Penn State. Prior to defeating the Badgers Ohio State lost at home to Nebraska 58 to 57 this following two road losses at Maryland and Michigan State. The Nittany Lions have lost three in a row with their last coming on the road at Minnesota which is a quality loss if there is such a thing. The Golden Gophers have done a nice job this season under the direction of head coach Richard Pitino who is the son of Louisville head coach Rick Pitino. In early February Penn State beat Maryland by six and Illinois on the road by thirteen. A loss to Nebraska on the road in mid-February halted their mini win streak and appeared to catch them looking ahead to their rematch against Purdue who they lost to on the road earlier this season. They faced the Boilermakers at home following the loss to the Cornhusker and Purdue needed overtime to put the Lions away by four points. Penn State made a decent showing in Minnesota losing by ten on the road. We look for them to be fully focused knowing the Buckeyes took both meetings last season against this Nittany Lions team. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.93 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 7.82 points with a line range of -1.0 to -3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Penn State Nittany Lions with a 74.21 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Penn State with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.6 with a transitional average of 41.84 and a conversion rate range of 42.95 to 44.77 percent in tonights contest. The Buckeyes have struggled when playing away from home posting a record of 10-29-1 ATS their last forty away. If the Buckeyes are coming off a straight up win and they now play on the division road they are only 1-8 ATS including 0-8 ATS as a division road underdog. With the Penn State Nittany Lions playing at home and coming off a loss we will lay the short price here as they take down the Buckeyes of Ohio State on Tuesday night in University Park.
PICK MADE ON 2/28/2017 AT 5:51 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 2/28/2017 AT 11:21 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
2/28/2017

9:00 PM EST
NCAAB
PITTSBURGH VS. GEORGIA TECH

PICK: GEORGIA TECH -1.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Pitt Panthers travel south to the ATL and McCamish Pavilion for an ACC battle against the hometown Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech. This game is the second game of an ESPNU college basketball double-header on Tuesday night. The Jackets of course need to win this game to have any chance at making the dance and even winning there is still doubt they will make it but I am positive if they lose to the Panthers tonight in the ATL they will not be dancing. The only way for the Panthers to get into the dance will be to win the ACC Tournament and this bureau doubts the Panthers have any shot at that. For the Jackets loses to Ohio and NC State blemish a record with solid wins against VCU, North Carolina, Florida State and Notre Dame. Their last time out the Jackets dropped a tough one to the Irish losing 64 to 60 in South Bend after winning the first meeting between the two in the ATL. The Jackets shot 44.8 percent from the floor to Notre Dame’s 35.1 percent, only the third time this season that the Yellow Jackets have lost when shooting a higher percentage than its opponent posting a record of sixteen wins to those three losses in that situation. Tech held Notre Dame eleven points under its scoring average of 75.1 points per game versus conference teams this season, and more than nine percentage points under their average 44.8 percent this season. The Yellow Jackets are No. 1 in the ACC in field goal percentage defense holding teams to just 40.1 percent and No. 4 in scoring defense on the season. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.2 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 8.49 points with a line range of -1.5 to -4.0. The BSIM Matrix has the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets with a 74.04 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Georgia Tech with an offensive-defensive differential of +9.11 with a transitional average of 40.07 and a conversion rate range of 44.76 to 46.9 percent in tonights contest. We want to play ON conference home favorites in the current price range coming off a SU loss on the road versus a winning team and the game went Under the posted total because these home favorites are 90-64-1 ATS. We are not fans of must win games and this one would be a borderline must win game even if you did want to use that theory and we do not we are backing the better overall team playing at home. Lay the short price with the Jackets as they roll to an easy victory on Tuesday night in the ATL.
PICK MADE ON 2/28/2017 AT 5:52 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 2/28/2017 AT 11:21 PM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
PICKS FOR MONDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2017 [refresh]
2/27/2017

7:00 PM EST
NCAAB
WEST VIRGINIA VS. BAYLOR

PICK: WEST VIRGINIA +1.5 (-115)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The West Virginia Mountaineers make the long trip to Texas to take on the Baylor Bears Monday night. Still strange having West Virginia as members of the Big 12 Conference just seems crazy even to this day. The Baylor Bears opened the 2017 campaign reeling off twenty wins and one loss before reality settled in and they have now gone 3-5 SU their last eight trips to the hardwood. Back in early January the Baylor Bears climbed to the number one ranking in the polls with their first real test coming in Morgantown when they had to take on the Mountaineers who were installed as 5.5-point home favorites over the Bears. Baylor did what they do better than any other team in the Big 12 they turned the ball over twenty-nine times and the boys from Morgantown blew them out 89 to 68. Baylor averages turning the ball over twenty-two percent of the time which secures the worst spot in the Big 12. That loss suffered by the Bears was their third consecutive loss in this series and tonight they really need to change that as they are trying to position themselves for a 2 or 3 seed in the upcoming Big 12 Tournament. Must wins are a lot like revenge games there is a reason they need a win and there is a reason they are playing with revenge in fact in this case its triple revenge, well the reason is the same they lose and put themselves in these situations. West Virginia has won five of their last six games and they are perfect when installed as an underdog posting a 2-0 record this season. West Virginia is coming off a SU win but they lost ATS on the road as a favorite in their last game and we know when that happens and they are now on the conference road they have been money when it comes to covering the spread in their next game posting a record of 10-1 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 6.83 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 7.71 points with a line range of +1.0 to +3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the West Virginia Mountaineers with a 73.64 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has West Virginia with an offensive-defensive differential of +7.89 with a transitional average of 40.2 and a conversion rate range of 46.7 to 48.68 percent in tonights contest. West Virginia coming off an ATS loss and going Under in their last game now facing a conference foe their record is a solid 33-17-1 ATS including 16-4 ATS if they are on the conference road. We want to play AGAINST conference favorites coming off a SU/ATS loss on the road in a game that went Over the posted total because these conference favorites are 69-106-2 ATS including 46-76-2 ATS if they are favored with a line range of Pick to -2.5. The momentum index has the Bears in a negative situation without the ability to bounce back from their most recent loss in fact they are active in a momentum system that tells us to play against them here and the system has a record of 90-132-5 ATS. The combination of all these key factors point to only one outcome and that is a play on the West Virginia Mountaineers.
PICK MADE ON 2/27/2017 AT 5:42 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 2/27/2017 AT 9:38 PM EST
-4.50
[report pick]
2/27/2017

9:00 PM EST
NCAAB
MIAMI FLORIDA VS. VIRGINIA TECH

PICK: VIRGINIA TECH +1 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Virginia Tech Hokies are playing host to the Miami Hurricanes on Monday night in Blacksburg and the game is featured on ESPNU with a tip of 9:00PM Eastern Time. The Hurricanes enter this contest off a huge upset victory over Duke in South Beach on Saturday and now have to travel north to face the Hokies in Blacksburg. These two clubs met back on February 8 in South Beach with the Canes installed as 6.5-point home chalk and getting the win 74 to 68 but failing to cover the spread. Miami’s last trip here did not end in the way they had hoped especially coming in here as 6.5-point road favorites and losing 77 to 62. The Hokies had gone to South Beach the previous month and were 14.5-point road underdogs to the Hurricanes who proceeded to blow them out 65 to 49. This season looks a lot like last year with the exception of the chalk the Hurricanes are a bit shorter this season on the chalk side of the matchup. The Hurricanes coming off a win ATS and going Under at home in their last game and now play on the conference road they have struggled going 0-7 ATS. If they are coming off an Under game at home and now installed as a conference road favorite they are 1-10 ATS in this situation. Virginia Tech installed as a conference underdog has gone 89-61-3 ATS. With Virginia Tech coming off a SU and ATS win as a favorite and now installed as a division underdog they are 7-1 against the number. We want to play ON CBB division teams coming off going Over on the road as a favorite because they are 59-36 ATS including 17-5 ATS as an underdog. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 6.77 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 7.98 points with a line range of +1.5 to +3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Virginia Tech Hokies with a 73.8 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Virginia Tech with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.83 with a transitional average of 41.03 and a conversion rate range of 47.8 to 49.26 percent in tonights contest. The Virginia Tech Hokies own home victories over Duke and Virginia and another eight wins versus teams in the Top 100 of the RPI so this Hokies team is talented and proven to be a tough out at home. With solid support for the home team coming from both primary and secondary indexes as well as strong situational support with their opponent coming off a very emotional victory over Duke just a couple days ago we look for the Hokies to get the victory.
PICK MADE ON 2/27/2017 AT 5:43 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 2/27/2017 AT 11:21 PM EST
+4.09
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2017 [refresh]
2/26/2017

7:08 PM EST
NBA
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

PICK: UNDER 216.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: This matchup is the second and middle game of an NBA Television triple-header on Sunday afternoon and evening. Our focus is on the total in this one although we do have some key information that tells us to play the Pelicans if we were playing the side in this contest. That info alone in this particular situation is not enough for us to play the side. Enough about the side let’s move on to the total and our best bet for Sunday night in the NBA. Our BTPR Index projects a game total average of 208.74 points. The BMM projects a total point differential of -8.96 points against a total range of 215.5 to 217.5 points. The BSIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.53 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the UNDER with an offensive-defensive differential of 8.43 with a transitional average of 40.61 and a conversion rate range of 45.2 to 47.8 percent in tonight’s contest. The Pelicans coming off a game as a favorite and the game went Under the total and now the Pelicans are installed as an underdog they have gone 46-76-1 Under. If they are installed as a road underdog in the same situation the record is 33-60-1 Under. We want to play UNDER with a road underdog coming off a SU/ATS loss as a favorite in their last game because these teams have gone 86-125-1 UNDER in this situation. The Pelicans have gone 3-10 UNDER on the road their last thirteen away from the Big Easy. With solid support for the low side we will play this one to come up short of the oddsmakers total on this game. UNDER
PICK MADE ON 2/26/2017 AT 4:02 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 2/26/2017 AT 9:59 PM EST
-5.00
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2017 [refresh]
2/25/2017

4:00 PM EST
NCAAB
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

PICK: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES -PK (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Michigan Wolverines have an opportunity today to add to their resume which includes wins over the Mustangs of SMU and the Badgers of Wisconsin both of which are quality victories and today’s opponent fourteenth ranked Purdue would add to that list and help secure their invitation to the Dance. We want to play ON CBB conference home favorites coming off a road win in a game that went Over the posted total because these conference home favorites are 114-81-3 ATS. If our play ON team was a favorite on the road in that situation the systems record is 108-75-9 ATS. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 7.52 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 8.78 points with a line range of +1.0 to -2.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Michigan Wolverines with a 73.85 percent advantage against the spread in today’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Michigan with an offensive-defensive differential of +8.33 with a transitional average of 40.04 and a conversion rate range of 47.2 to 49.6 percent in today’s contest. It is senior day in Ann Arbor Michigan and the Wolverines return five senior starters who will want to go out with a very important victory against the Boilermakers on Saturday night. The play here is the home team Michigan Wolverines
PICK MADE ON 2/25/2017 AT 12:52 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 2/26/2017 AT 11:53 AM EST
+4.55
[report pick]
2/25/2017

6:00 PM EST
NCAAB
LSU VS. GEORGIA

PICK: GEORGIA -11.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Georgia Bulldogs play host to the LSU Bengal Tigers on Saturday night in Athens with the tip set for 6 Eastern Time. The Tigers qualify as a towel tossing team with a record of 9-18 SU on the season and appear to have given completely up on the defensive end of the floor allowing their last five opponents to score at least ninety points. That number is rare in college hoops well in most cases it’s a rare number but it is certainly rare in the situation the Tigers were in during that stretch of five games. The Bulldogs on the side are a very strong 9-3 against the number in SEC contests and they have been perfect in this situation with a 3-0-1 ATS record in this series. The Bulldogs have been a solid conference favorite best bet for quite some time posting a record of 43-25-1 ATS. With the Bulldogs coming off a road game and now facing a conference opponent they have been money posting a record of 68-39-1 ATS including 11-2 ATS in the current price range. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 18.07 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 9.89 points with a line range of 10.0 to -12.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Georgia Bulldogs with a 74.16 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Georgia with an offensive-defensive differential of +11.21 with a transitional average of 41.2 and a conversion rate range of 44.7 to 46.6 percent in tonights contest. The Momentum Matrix has the Tigers in negative territory with no signs of change or improvement based on their projections they are for the most part playing out the string. We have no problems laying the digits tonight in Athens it’s a play on the Dawgs.
PICK MADE ON 2/25/2017 AT 12:53 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 2/25/2017 AT 8:39 PM EST
-5.00
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2/25/2017

8:00 PM EST
NCAAB
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS VS. COLORADO STATE RAMS

PICK: COLORADO STATE RAMS -1 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: Colorado State is tied for first place in the Mountain West at 11-4 with Nevada. The Rams are 88 in the RPI and will need to win the MWC Tournament to earn an NCAA Tourney bid. They face a disappointed San Diego State squad that is 8-7 in the Mountain West Conference and that has them ranked sixth in the league. The Rams defeated the Aztecs on the road, 78 to 77 back in late January. The Aztecs are coming off a 63 to 55 home loss to Fresno State on Wednesday, which halted a three-game win streak. The Rams on the other hand have reeled off five straight victories and eight of their last nine trips to the hardwood. San Diego State had won five of six games before their game against Fresno State. The loss ended any hopes of the Aztecs winning their fourth straight Mountain West regular season title. But the Aztecs shot just 34.6 percent from field in the loss to the Bulldogs and 4-of-19 from behind the arc. The Aztecs were also outrebounded by nine and allowed the Bulldogs to shoot 43.1 percent from the field. The Rams went into the Pit to take on the Lobos of New Mexico Wednesday night and the Pit is historically a tough place to play but the Rams came away with the win 68 to 56 using a solid defensive effort to get the victory. The Rams defense held the Lobos to forty-two percent from the field and forced eleven turnovers in the win. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.88 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 9.72 points with a line range of -1.0 to -3.5. The BSIM Matrix has the Colorado State Rams with a 74.51 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has Colorado State with an offensive-defensive differential of +9.4 with a transitional average of 41.93 and a conversion rate range of 42.8 to 44.45 percent in tonight’s contest. We note Colorado State installed as a conference home favorite after winning ATS on the road in their last game have posted a record of 17-7-2 against the spread in this situation. We will lay the short number here as the Rams slam the door shut on the Aztecs season while adding to their win total for the year
PICK MADE ON 2/25/2017 AT 12:55 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 2/26/2017 AT 11:54 AM EST
- - - - -
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