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Since 1989 Cajun Sports has been the preferred destination for serious sports investors looking for comprehensive statistics and systems tailored for wagering against the point spread combined with effective betting strategies that consistently defeat the Vegas Line. Cajun Sports Best Bets are supported by logical reasoning, solid analysis and exclusive information. Cajun Sports Handicapper is a Certified SDQL Master which gives Cajun Sports clients a huge advantage when investing in the global sports market. Cajun Sports is the 2009 Vegas Wise Guys Contest Champion. The Vegas Wise Guys contest is an invitation ONLY contest for 50 of the nation's top professional sports handicappers. Success is where preparation meets opportunity. 

 

 

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PICKS FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 08, 2016  (YESTERDAY) [refresh]
12/8/2016

8:25 PM EST
NFL
OAKLAND RAIDERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3 (-125)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Kansas City Chiefs have been good to us this season with the most recent ticket we cashed backing them came last week in the ATL as they defeated the Falcons 29 to 28 as +5.5-point road underdogs. The Chiefs are not installed as underdogs this week as they play host to the Silver and Black on the featured NFL Thursday Night Game of the Week. We know the Raiders have been solid ATS when visiting Arrowhead posting a 10-3 ATS record and we also know the visitor in the series has a 16-5 ATS record overall. One other negative angle AFC West road underdogs of six or fewer points are on a 9-0 straight and against the spread run. Those are impressive but they are not strong enough to stand alone for those that follow us know we do not make an investment based on a single or even several angles we need support from the fundamental numbers as well as situational support for us to make an investment. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.49 points. The MM projects a point differential of 7.32 points against the current line of -3.0 to -5.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Kansas City Chiefs with a 72.06 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. Arrowhead stadium is still one of the toughest stadiums in the league. The Chiefs are well aware of what this game means and its overall importance in deciding the AFC West title. The Chiefs went into Oakland and defeated the Raiders 26 to 10 earlier this season and of course one would think about possible motivation in the form of revenge for the Raiders tonight. Revenge is one of the most overused factors in sports handicapping especially in the NFL. Although division revenge games would hold some value because of the importance of all division games when it effects the postseason. The issue we have with the Raiders is on the defensive side of the ball where they allow more than twenty-four points per game which is surprising when you look at their SU record you would think they would perform better on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs on the other hand allow less than seventeen points at Arrowhead this season and they are monsters when it comes to turnover margin differential with a +2.2 average at Arrowhead this season. Our Reverse Momentum Index favors the Chiefs also as they are still trending in positive territory while the Raiders even with their 9-2 SU record the Reverse Momentum Index has them trending into negative territory with their defensive numbers hurting their overall average. The game time temperature is expected to be in the twenties with winds up to 20 miles an hour. The Chiefs should be able to control the Raiders offense as they did in the first meeting holding Carr to 225 yards passing and Ware to 131 overland with all of that producing just ten points for the Silver and Black in their first meeting this season. We will lay the short number here and back the Chiefs at home over an overrated Raiders team on Thursday night. PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 13
PICK MADE YESTERDAY AT 6:44 PM EST
PICK GRADED YESTERDAY AT 11:57 PM EST
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PICKS FOR MONDAY, DECEMBER 05, 2016 [refresh]
12/5/2016

8:30 PM EST
NFL
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. NEW YORK JETS

PICK: NEW YORK JETS -1 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Monday Night featured NFL Game of the Week takes place in Gotham as the New York Jets play host to the Indianapolis Colts. The AFC Wildcard race has heated up but the Jets look to be riding out the string while the Colts are still in play. The Colts have a huge game next week at home versus the Houston Texans the Jets make a trip west to take no the terrible San Francisco 49ers. The Colts are expected to start Andrew Luck who was forced to miss their Thanksgiving Day game due to concussion protocol and the Horses got blowout by the Steelers. Tonight’s game sets up perfectly for us because the New York Jets have qualified in our Reverse Momentum Index with a 70.7 percent advantage along with a 3.45 point edge on the scoreboard. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 4.12 points in favor of the Jets. The MM projects a point differential of -6.96 points against the current line range of +1.0 to +2.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the New York Jets with a 71.8 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. The PPR Index has Andrew Luck in negative territory and Jets starter Ryan Fitzpatrick trending in positive territory. Albeit a small difference it is a difference and in the current situation the PPR These two met on a Monday night last season at Lucas Oil Stadium with the Jets installed as six-point road underdogs and the Mean Green came away with a 20 to 7 victory. I am sure there will be some so called cappers and pundits who will once again play the Revenge Factor which is one of the most overused theories in sports investing and it does not hold any value in this game. Fitzpatrick has struggled this season converting just fifty-seven percent of his passes and throwing thirteen interceptions compared to just ten touchdowns. Unfortunately he has taken eighteen sacks over the course of this season which hasn’t helped his overall rating and some of those were not his fault. Also the interception total is a bit misleading in that most of those came in a two-game span where he had nine facing two of the league’s best defensive units. Over the course of the last six games Fitz has thrown seven touchdowns to only three interceptions. The Jets overall offensive and defensive matrix averages for this particular situation favor them over the Colts Monday night. We also have a system that is active for tonight’s game which tells us to play ON NFL home underdogs of 7 or fewer points with a RMI average of 2.5 or more points (Jets average for this game 3.45) facing an opponent coming off a double-digit loss in their last game and face a division foe next week. These Reverse Momentum home underdogs are 27-5-2 ATS including a perfect 11-0 ATS the last eleven in this situation. With solid support from all primary and secondary index averages as well as the Jets qualifying in our Reverse Momentum Index we will take the points in Gotham on Monday night. PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* New York Jets 30 Indianapolis Colts 26
PICK MADE ON 12/5/2016 AT 6:25 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/5/2016 AT 11:59 PM EST
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PICKS FOR SUNDAY, DECEMBER 04, 2016 [refresh]
12/4/2016

1:00 PM EST
NFL
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. ATLANTA FALCONS

PICK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Kansas City Chiefs are playing on the road again this week as they travel to the ATL for a non-conference matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. We know that NFL teams playing in their second straight road game are a solid wager posting a record of 549-447-21 against the spread. The Chiefs are coming off an upset victory over the World Champion Denver Broncos while the Falcons are coming off a 38 to 19 home victory over the Arizona Cardinals. That was a nice win for the Falcons but that was not the same Cardinals team we have become accustomed to over the last few years. The Chiefs have quietly put together an 8-3 SU record to this point in the season and they have the talent and tools to win this game straight up in the ATL. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.79 points. The MM projects a point differential of -6.48 points against the current line range of +5.0 to +7.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the Kansas City Chiefs with a 73.9 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. The Kansas City Chiefs are 21-12 ATS on the road since the 2013 campaign. The Kansas City Chiefs are a perfect 11-0 ATS when visiting a non-divisional opponent with fewer wins. We want to play ON a non-Monday non-conference team (not a home favorite of 14+ points or road favorite) off a division OT SU win versus a sub-.750 opponent not off a bye last week. These non-conference teams are 17-4 against the spread for 81 percent winners. The Atlanta Falcons are 2-11 ATS when installed as home chalk since the 2014 campaign. The Falcons are 0-11-1 ATS at home off a home game that resulted in a 10+ point ATS win. The Falcons are 0-7-1 ATS at home off a home game after they scored more than thirty-three points. The Atlanta Falcons are 6-12 ATS their last eighteen home affairs. With solid support for the Chiefs we will take the points here as Kansas City surprises the Dirty Birds in the ATL on Sunday afternoon. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Kansas City Chiefs 24 Atlanta Falcons 23
PICK MADE ON 12/4/2016 AT 11:45 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/4/2016 AT 4:42 PM EST
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12/4/2016

4:05 PM EST
NFL
BUFFALO BILLS VS. OAKLAND RAIDERS

PICK: OAKLAND RAIDERS -3 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Buffalo Bills take their show on the road to the West Coast to face the up and coming Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Bills are coming off a 28 to 21 victory over the terrible Jacksonville Jaguars while the Raiders faced off against the Carolina Panthers winning a close contest 35 to 32. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 10.5 points. The MM projects a point differential of 7.7 points against the current line range of -3.0 to -5.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the Oakland Raiders with a 73.62 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number on Sunday afternoon. This is not a good matchup for the Bills they certainly do not want to get into any type of shootout because the Raiders have been winning those types of games. The Bills will attempt to control the pace and tempo of this contest but they lack the tools in this matchup to be successful in their attempt. Here is a perfect tech element that solidifies our positon we know the Buffalo Bills are 0-11 ATS versus any team that has allowed at least 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Buffalo Bills are 13-30-2 ATS as a road underdog their last forty-five times to post. We also see the Raiders are a perfect 6-0 against the number facing a team that is coming off back-to-back victories in their last two outings. The Raiders under head coach Jack Del Rio have become a tough out and if we add the fact they are short chalk on their own field we really like them to get the job done against the Ryan boys on Sunday. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Oakland Raiders 27 Buffalo Bills 17
PICK MADE ON 12/4/2016 AT 11:46 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/4/2016 AT 7:58 PM EST
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12/4/2016

8:30 PM EST
NFL
CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

PICK: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -7.5 (-110)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Carolina Panthers remained on the West Coast this week after losing a tough battle down in Oakland against the Raiders last week losing 35 to 32 to the Silver and Black. The road doesn’t get any easier with their trip to Seattle where they find a group of made birds looking for some retribution. The Seahawks are coming off one of their most embarrassing losses under head coach Pete Carroll. Last week the Seahawks made the long trip east to Cigar City to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers where they were completely humiliated scoring a total of five points in the loss. One bright spot for the Birds their defense allowed the Bucs just fourteen points in the 14 to 5 loss. The Seattle offensive line gave up a season-high six sacks of Russell Wilson and he threw two interceptions which help make up his long afternoon in Cigar City. Prior to that game Wilson had only been sacked twenty times in ten games prior to those six against the Bucs. Seattle still holds the largest division lead in the league sitting at 7-3-1 SU ahead of the once promising 4-6-1 SU Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are perfect at home this season with a 5-0 SU record although three of the five wins came by six or fewer points. Seattle has been one of the few teams in the league that makes a habit of responding in big games and even though the Panthers are 4-7 SU on the season they did sweep this Seahawks team last season so for the Birds in the Pacific Northwest this will be classified as a Big Game. The Carolina Panthers made a huge effort in coming back last week against the Raiders only to come up just short of a victory. That loss was bigger than it appears because they couldn’t pull it off like they probably would have last season or even a few prior seasons but it was not to be last week and could spell the end of the Panthers hopes of making the postseason. A check of our powerful NFL database reveals a league-wide system that is active for tonight’s contest. The system says From Game 3 on, play AGAINST a non-Thursday road team before home against San Diego next week and not off a road favorite SU loss or bye last week. These road teams are 17-32 ATS winning just thirty-four percent of the time in this situation. The Panthers are 0-6-1 ATS on the road since December 2015. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS at home off a game as a favorite where they lost by ten or more points to the spread. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 14.89 points. The MM projects a point differential of 8.78 points against the current line range of -6.5 to -8.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Seattle Seahawks with a 74.86 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. With significant support across the board for the home team we will lay the chalk with the Seahawks on Sunday night. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5.5* Seattle Seahawks 27 Carolina Panthers 13
PICK MADE ON 12/4/2016 AT 11:46 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/5/2016 AT 12:17 AM EST
[report pick]
PICKS FOR SATURDAY, DECEMBER 03, 2016 [refresh]
12/3/2016

7:45 PM EST
NCAAF
SAN DIEGO STATE VS. WYOMING

PICK: WYOMING +6 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Mountain West Title Game features the Wyoming Cowboys and the San Diego State Aztecs with kickoff set for 7:45PM Eastern Time. These two clubs just met two weeks ago with the Aztecs scoring on the last play of the game deciding to go for two-points and the win but failed losing 34 to 33 to the Cowboys. The Cowboys have held the edge in this series with a 4-3 record overall the last seven meetings and they are 4-2 ATS the last six played in Laramie. Each club is coming off an embarrassing loss in their last game with the Cowboys losing at New Mexico 56 to 35 and the Aztecs losing at home to Colorado State 63 to 31. Our Reverse Momentum Index has the Cowboys trending in positive territory even coming off the loss and in fact that loss played a role in the Momentum Rating while the loss suffered by the Aztecs at home to the Rams had a negative effect on the Aztecs overall number for this particular game. They both qualified in our Reverse Momentum Index but their ratings are heading in different directions. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 0.96 points. The MM projects a point differential of -7.43 points against the current line range of +6.0 to +8.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the Wyoming Cowboys with a 72.33 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Cowboys are 6-0-1 ATS at home their last seven covering the spread by an average of 12.14 points per game. Wyoming is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog covering the spread in those four games by an average of 15.25 points per game. We want to play ON a Conference Championship/Bowl team (not a favorite of 4+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) off allowing 22+ points in each of its last 5 games vs. a non-Independent opponent. The play ON team in this college football power system has a record of 28-9 ATS for 75.7 percent winners against the spread. With significant support in all primary and secondary indexes we will back the Cowboys as they take down the Aztecs against in Laramie on Saturday night. PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* Wyoming Cowboys 29 San Diego State Aztecs 28
PICK MADE ON 12/3/2016 AT 4:23 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/4/2016 AT 12:00 AM EST
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12/3/2016

8:00 PM EST
NCAAF
VIRGINIA TECH VS. CLEMSON

PICK: VIRGINIA TECH +11 (-115)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: Clemson enters the ACC Title game needing a victory to get the invite to the Final Four Playoff this season. The Tigers have been inconsistent on defense and struggling at times on offense with the play of star QB Deshaun Watson who has thrown too many to the other team this season. In a home loss to Pittsburgh they gave up 44 points while scoring 42 in the loss. If they play like that tonight it would not surprise this bureau if the Hokies pulled off the upset like the Panthers did. The Hokies struggled at times also losing to Syracuse ad Georgia Tech but managed to score 86 points in winning their last two outings. The Hokies have also defeated some good teams along the way as they defeated defending champ North Carolina, Miami and Pittsburgh to earn their spot here in the ACC Title Game. We expect the Hokies to play with confidence knowing the pressure is on their opponent who has to win to get into the four-team national playoff. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.02 points. The MM projects a point differential of -8.71 points against the current line range of +10.0 to +12.0. The SIM Matrix has the Virginia Tech Hokies with a 72.6 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s game. The Momentum Index has both teams in positive territory but the average difference for this contest is well below the double-digit number the oddsmakers have assigned to Clemson. With solid support for the underdog we will take the points here with the Hokies. PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* Virginia Tech Hokies 31 Clemson Tigers 34
PICK MADE ON 12/3/2016 AT 4:24 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/4/2016 AT 12:19 AM EST
[report pick]
PICKS FOR FRIDAY, DECEMBER 02, 2016 [refresh]
12/2/2016

7:00 PM EST
NCAAF
OHIO VS. WESTERN MICHIGAN

PICK: OHIO +17 (-115)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: These two teams are playing for the MAC Championship on Friday night at Ford Field in Detroit Michigan. The two clubs did not face each other during the regular season although they did face one another the previous two seasons with the Broncos taking care of business winning 42 to 21 at home in 2014 and then they defeated the Bobcats on their home field 49 to 14 in 2015. The Broncos are riding a 12-0 straight up record which includes a 9-3 ATS mark this season. Western Michigan is coming off a huge win over the Toledo Rockets winning 55 to 35 as -7.5 point favorites. The Bobcats finished the regular season winning seven of their last nine games to close the regular season with a record of 8-4 straight up and 6-6 against the spread. The Bobcats are fifth in the nation in rushing defense, allowing 105.1 yards per game, led by senior LB Blair Brown who has 105 tackles on the season and junior LB Quentin Poling who racked up 95 tackles in the 2016 campaign. Ohio also topped the MAC in sacks with 41 as senior defensive lineman Tarell Basham posted eleven of them and that group will need to keep the pressure on Broncos star QB Terrell. We have used the Western Michigan Broncos several times this season with great success both as Late Phone Selections and in our College System of the Week articles. This situation has us on the other side of the Broncos they are coming off a blowout victory in their last game and a huge shutout victory prior to that contest. The situation even though it is a Conference Championship game does not favor the Broncos by such a large number. Our Reverse Momentum Index has the Broncos trending into negative territory based on their recent success and the situation they are in tonight. The Bobcats enter tonight’s game with nothing to lose no one expects anything out of them and our Reverse Momentum Index has them in positive territory. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.77 points. The Math Model projects a point differential of -8.52 points against the current line range of +17.5 to +19.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Ohio University Bobcats with a 71.95 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. With solid support from all of our primary and secondary indexes we will take the points in this contest as the Bobcats get it within the oddsmakers number on Friday night. PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* Ohio Bobcats 21 Western Michigan Broncos 31
PICK MADE ON 12/2/2016 AT 4:12 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/2/2016 AT 10:58 PM EST
[report pick]
12/2/2016

9:00 PM EST
NCAAF
COLORADO VS. WASHINGTON

PICK: COLORADO +8 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The two clubs facing off in the Pac 12 Championship Game are making their first appearance in school history in the big game. These two teams did not face one another during the regular season and based on our strength of schedule ratings the Buffalos faced a much tougher road to this game. In fact it is not even close as the Buffalos faced the 26 ranked schedule compared to the Huskies who faced the 62 ranked schedule. The Washington Huskies non-conference schedule was made up of Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State definitely not a who’s who of college football powerhouses. The Huskies own the #1 rush defense in the conference but that holds little value much like their second place ranking in pass defense in the conference. Both teams faced Utah this season with the Buffalos winning by five points at home with the Huskies winning by seven on the road. The two teams faced one of the nation’s most dangerous teams to end the season in USC with Colorado losing by four in LA while the Huskies were easily handled by the Men of Troy on their home field losing by almost two touchdowns in Seattle. Both teams are led by solid quarterback’s Washington has QB Jake Browning and Colorado features QB Sefo Liufau both will need . Each team has a 1,000 yard rusher with the Buffalos it is Phillip Lindsay who has 1136 yards rushing on the season and the Huskies have Myles Gaskin who rushed for 1180 yards on the year. All of the pressure is on the Huskies in this one they need to win to have any chance at securing that fourth and final playoff spot. Last season the Buffalos were 1-8 in Pac 12 action this season they are 8-1 after defeating the Utes 27 to 22 last week. They pulled off the straight up victory over Utah but came up short against the spread for only the second time all season. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 0.91 points. The Math Model projects a point differential of -8.7 points against the current line range of +7.5 to +9.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the Colorado Buffalos with a 73.34 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s contest. The Reverse Momentum Factor Index has the Colorado Buffalo’s trending in positive territory coming off a hard fought battle against Utah while the Huskies have dropped out of positive territory and are now solidly in the red with a negative average. The Huskies are in a letdown situation coming off back-to-back blowout victories over conference foes and the most recent against their in-state rival. We note the Huskies are 2-7 ATS their last nine coming off a conference win of twenty-eight or more points. We have established the fact they are in a letdown situation but we also know they have added pressure because they must win this game to secure their spot in the college playoffs. Those of you that follow us know we are not big on “must win” games we believe that situation along with revenge is one of the most overused situations in football handicapping. With that in mind this qualifies as a “must win” situation for the Huskies even with a victory they are not guaranteed an invitation to the college playoffs and this has to weigh on these kids having never been in this situation before. Unlike teams like Alabama who play big games several times during the regular season and really all season because they always get their opponents best effort whereas the players for the Huskies have never had to deal with this type of pressure. This game sets up perfectly for a play on the underdog so we will take the points at the Straight Leg Stadium in Santa Clara California Friday night. Take the points PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Colorado Buffalos 27 Washington Huskies 28
PICK MADE ON 12/2/2016 AT 4:11 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/3/2016 AT 12:58 AM EST
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PICKS FOR THURSDAY, DECEMBER 01, 2016 [refresh]
12/1/2016

8:25 PM EST
NFL
DALLAS COWBOYS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

PICK: UNDER 44 (-110)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Dallas Cowboys take their rookie show on the road which has managed a 10-1 record to open the season in fact they have not lost since their season-opener winning behind two solid rookies who are serious contenders for Player of the Year honors not just Rookie of the Year. We have a 10-1 team on a ten-game win streak facing a team with a 6-5 record playing with a back-up QB, back-up running back and their head coach will not be at the game due to surgery so a back-up coach you might say as well. The oddsmakers have made the 10-1 Dallas Cowboys a 3-point road favorite, really? We realize the Vikings are at home and they have a solid defense but they still have a 6-5 record and back-ups at key positions. Our Reverse Momentum Index tells us to take those three points with the Vikings but that alone is not enough for us to make the Vikings a play here plus all of the other facts we have already mentioned give us pause. We see 94 percent of the money wagered has been wagered on Dallas to this point today and they have only moved the line by a half-point from the opener of -2.5 to -3.0 although there is one book that has Dallas -4.0 but that is one out of twenty-five sportsbooks we monitor. We focused our attention on the total which is currently 44.0 across the board. This Vikings team has dropped five of their last six games including a 16 to 13 loss on Thanksgiving Day to the Detroit Lions in the Motor City. Minnesota coming off a road game and their opponent riding a three-game win streak have posted a record of 0-7 Under in all seven qualifying contests. This will be the Vikings third game in twelve days and not to be outdone the Cowboys are also playing three in twelve. The Vikings defense ranks second in the league allowing just 17.5 points per game. The problem for the Vikings has been their offense has been limited to sixteen or fewer points four times in their last six outings. That type of poor performance causes problems for their defense. Although it shows how well their defense has really played this season because they have continually found themselves backed up and right back on the field. Dallas on the other hand has done a great job of controlling the pace of their games by utilizing an excellent rushing attack. They can make plays down the field in both the passing and running game as we have seen Ezekiel Elliott break some big runs and take it to the house. The Minnesota defense should be able to slow that attack at least to the point of holding them below their projected total for this contest. Our TPR projects a game total average of 37.44 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -8.01 points against the game total range of 44.0 to 46.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the Under with a 72.8 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. With solid support both fundamentally and situationally we will play the low side on Thursday night. Under PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* UNDER 44.5 Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
PICK MADE ON 12/1/2016 AT 3:40 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 12/2/2016 AT 12:00 AM EST
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PICKS FOR MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2016 [refresh]
11/28/2016

8:30 PM EST
NFL
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS +4.5 (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Monday Night featured NFL Game of the Week takes place in the City of Brotherly Love with kickoff set for 8:30PM Eastern Time and the game of course can be seen on ESPN. On the surface this looks like a strong play on the Eagles with support from a few strong technical elements but there is always a but when it comes to the NFL and especially under the lights on Monday nights. We have a few league-wide systems that support the road team in this particular situation. First we want to play ON NFL teams who are playing on the road for the second straight time because these back-to-back roadies have posted a record of 548-447-21 ATS. We want to play ON NFL road underdogs coming in off a road loss in their last game because these road underdogs are 229-164-4 ATS for 58.3 percent winners against the spread. If our road underdog is coming in off a road underdog loss in their last game the record for these pups improves to 193-135-4 ATS for 58.8 percent winners against the spread. We have one final system that utilizes this particular situation and it tells us to play ON NFL road teams coming off two road straight up losses in their last two games, losing the last game by fewer points than in their previous game. This system has a record of 13-1 ATS for a win percentage of 92.9 percent against the spread. We are not fans of the “must win” theory that is so prevalent in the NFL and College Football wagering marketplace. NFL teams play just sixteen games in the regular season with college teams playing fewer than that so each game is a “must win” game if you hope to advance to the post season in either league. This is another NFL but situation because the Packers are in trouble they are currently on a four-game skid that needs to end tonight if they are to have any real chance at postseason play. The good news for the Packers when they are riding at least a three-game losing skid and installed as an underdog Aaron Rodgers and company are a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in this situation. What makes this situation so strong is the fact they are installed as underdogs and win the game outright. Aaron Rodgers is also 16-8 straight up and 14-9-1 against the spread when the Packers enter with a losing record on the season. We want to play ON NFL road teams in this situation coming off a double-digit loss in their last game facing an opponent who also enters off a double-digit loss because these road teams have posted a record of 22-6 against the oddsmakers number. The TPR Index projects a point advantage 2.19 points in favor of the visitors. The MM projects a point differential of -6.46 against the current line range of +4.0 to +6.0. The SIM Matrix has the Green Bay Packers with a 71.9 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. Even though the Eagles have some decent support on the technical front it is not enough to lay points with them in this particular situation. The Momentum Factor Index actually has the Packers responding in positive territory coming off their double-digit loss while the Eagles are in negative territory overall in the same situation. The Packers qualify in our Reverse Momentum Index which tells us the Packers have the edge both straight up and against the spread. With the oddsmakers giving us decent line value and the betting public helping move the line in our favor by betting on the Eagles we will take all the points we can get with the Packers but we will not need them as the Pack surprises the Philly faithful on Monday night and grabs the straight up victory. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Green Bay Packers 24 vs. Philadelphia Eagles 20
PICK MADE ON 11/28/2016 AT 2:39 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/28/2016 AT 11:59 PM EST
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PICKS FOR SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2016 [refresh]
11/27/2016

1:00 PM EST
NFL
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS

PICK: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -3 (+100)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The San Diego Chargers are in Houston Texas for a Sunday afternoon battle against AFC foe the Houston Texans. The Chargers are at the bottom of their AFC Division while the Texans are in the top position in theirs but the Texans position is quite by luck and not from performance. The Texans are coming off a defeat at the hands of the Oakland Raiders on Monday night south of the border in Mexico. Houston has a winning record coming off Monday night games going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS but that was not a normal Monday affair and this year’s team even though they lead their division does not appear to be on the same level as the teams that put up that winning record. The Texans have been outgained in three of their last four games and four of their last six overall that is not the sign of a quality team. On the technical front we see the Chargers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS all-time in this series. The Chargers have a winning history versus teams from the AFC South over the years posting a record of 25-7 straight up and 27-4-1 against the spread. The fact the Texans have more wins on the season than the Chargers and the fact the Chargers are playing on the road has not seem to bother them in the least bit posting a record of 17-1 against the spread in this situation. The Chargers coming off a home game now playing on the road facing a team who is playing with revenge has not been an issue either as San Diego has posted a record of 7-0 against the spread. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.77 points. The MM projects a point differential of 7.04 points against the current line range of -2.0 to -4.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the San Diego Chargers with a 73.3 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s contest. This is situation where we will back the better overall team and the better QB on Sunday in Houston. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* San Diego Chargers 27 Houston Texan 20
PICK MADE ON 11/27/2016 AT 11:45 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/27/2016 AT 4:39 PM EST
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11/27/2016

1:00 PM EST
NFL
NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS

PICK: NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 (-115)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The New York Giants made the trip to Cleveland for a Sunday afternoon battle against the winless Browns. The Browns are coming off a physical contest against their hated rival the Pittsburgh Steelers eventually losing 24 to 9 as an eight-point underdog and they have yet to have a bye week. The Giants on the other hand have been somewhat of a surprise this season but they are chasing the Cowboys in the NFC. The Giants have too many weapons for the Browns to be any type of threat the Browns defense has allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league with twenty-five allowed and they have only grabbed eight interceptions. The Browns pass defense is horrible and the Giants wide receivers should have a field day against a Cleveland “D” that is tied for the worst in the league with an 8.3 pass yards per attempt allowed on the season. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 15.82 points. The MM projects a point differential of 9.75 points against the current line range of -6.0 to -8.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the New York Giants with a 74.7 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s contest. The Giants are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus the AFC their last six including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. The Browns are 1-6 ATS versus teams from the NFC including a perfect 0-3 ATS this season. The Browns are 1-10 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games when facing a foe coming off a home game of their own. Cleveland is 5-16 ATS overall since October 2015 and 1-7 ATS when installed as a home underdog. The Momentum Factor has the Giants in positive territory while the Browns are very close to qualifying as a Towel Tossing Team with a 0-11 SU record this season. With the combination of all these factors we will lay the chalk with the Giants on Sunday in Cleveland. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5.5* New York Giants 27 Cleveland Browns 13
PICK MADE ON 11/27/2016 AT 11:46 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/27/2016 AT 4:43 PM EST
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11/27/2016

4:25 PM EST
NFL
CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. OAKLAND RAIDERS

PICK: OVER 49 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Oakland Raiders have been one of the teams we have focused on this season as far as total play is concerned we have used them on five occasions with positive results in all five with each game going Over the posted total. The Raiders are actually one of the league’s best team’s when it comes to going Over the posted total they have a record of 8-2 to the high side this season. Over that span of games they have averaged a combined fifty points per game and when they play at home that average jumps to fifty-three points per game. The once great Carolina defense has disappeared this season they rank near the bottom in passing yards allowed per game with an average of 272 passing yards allowed which ranks them twenty-seventh in the league. Not to be outdone the Raiders are also terrible against the pass when it comes to defending it they have allowed an average of 278 passing yards per game this season which has them ranked twenty-ninth on the year. The Raiders have faced three NFC South teams this season and in those games they averaged a combined sixty-two points. We want to play OVER on NFL non-division teams coming off three consecutive games that finished on the low side of the oddsmakers total when the current game total is forty-eight or more points because these games have posted a record of 19-3 Over since the 09 season. If the qualifying game comes in Game Thirteen or less that record improves to a perfect 18-0 Over. We want to play OVER on NFL games when one team is off a Thursday game while the other is coming off a Monday affair because these games have gone Over at a rate of 22-1-1 since the 92 season averaging fifty-seven points per game over that span. Our TPR Index projects a game total average of 56.98 points. The MM projects a game total differential of +8.79 points against the current total range of 48.5 to 50.5. The SIM Matrix has this contest going Over the posted total with a 73.28 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. The combination of these factors gives us a play on the high side so we will play Over in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. Over PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* OVER 49.0 Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders
PICK MADE ON 11/27/2016 AT 11:46 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/27/2016 AT 8:19 PM EST
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PICKS FOR SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 2016 [refresh]
11/26/2016

3:30 PM EST
NCAAF
NOTRE DAME VS. USC

PICK: NOTRE DAME +17 (-105)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish makes the trip west for their annual clash versus the Men of Troy at the LA Coliseum on Saturday afternoon. If this Irish team has any measure of pride they will give an all-out performance here and this will be a solid test of their coach’s ability or lack thereof to lead the Irish in the future. Notre Dame blew a seventeen point lead at home versus Virginia Tech last week being outscored 20 to 7 in the second half. We have never been fans of Brian Kelly but this game is more about the players than the coach we believe the kids will rise up here and play with a sense of urgency and determination. The last two meetings have been all USC with final scores of 49-14 and 31 to 17. The Irish are 6-1 ATS their last seven as an underdog of seven or more points. Irish head coach Brian Kelly is 20-10-1 ATS when his team is installed as an underdog of at least four points including a record of 10-3-1 ATS from Game Seven on. Even with those two huge wins by USC in the last two meetings the Irish are still 5-2 both straight up and against the spread versus the Men of Troy their last seven meetings. USC has averaged 32 points per game on 473 yards of offense while allowing 22 points per game on 355 yards of total offense. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 9.28 points. The MM projects a point differential of -8.85 points against the current line range of +17.0 to +19.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with a 72.02 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. The oddsmakers have hung a large number on the Trojans primarily based on what they have done to most of the Pac 12 Conference but the strength of schedule for those teams is not that impressive and it gives the Trojans a below average overall TPR Rating. The USC Trojans are 1-11 ATS when playing into non-conference revenge. With support from all the primary and secondary indexes we will take this ton of points and play the Irish in the City of Angels on Saturday afternoon. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Notre Dame Irish 30 USC Trojans 37
PICK MADE ON 11/26/2016 AT 12:37 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/26/2016 AT 8:21 PM EST
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11/26/2016

3:30 PM EST
NCAAF
NAVY VS. SMU

PICK: OVER 65 (-105)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 11/26/2016 AT 12:37 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/26/2016 AT 7:21 PM EST
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11/26/2016

4:00 PM EST
NCAAF
OREGON VS. OREGON STATE

PICK: OVER 69.5 (-105)

RISK: 4.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK MADE ON 11/26/2016 AT 12:38 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/26/2016 AT 7:38 PM EST
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11/26/2016

7:30 PM EST
NCAAF
TENNESSEE VS. VANDERBILT

PICK: VANDERBILT +7.5 (-115)

RISK: 5.5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Tennessee Volunteers had a chance at the SEC East title until the Florida Gators went into Baton Rouge and grabbed a huge victory over the Bengal Tigers last Saturday. The Volunteers continue with their up and down season not ever getting over the hump and this has to be draining on these Volunteer players. They make the short trip to Nashville for their in-state battle against the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday night. Vanderbilt has improved this season and their defense has become rather stingy allowing just 21.5 points per game on 401.3 yards of total offense. Offensively they have averaged 336.5 yards per game with 162.7 of that coming overland. The Vols are coming off a 63 to 37 win over Missouri last week and the final score is misleading but it helps us with line value tonight. They went into halftime with a score of 20 to 21 with Tennessee outscoring the Tigers 28 to 10 in the fourth to walk away with big win. Take a closer look at the numbers and we see that the Tigers outgained the Vols 740 to 609 with Missouri converting 41 first downs to only 24 by the Volunteers that is a large discrepancy in the critical number department. The fact is Tennessee did win and that is the ultimate number but the other key numbers do help with our selection today. Tennessee struggles installed as favorites of five or more points facing an opponent who is coming off a straight up and against the spread victory in their last game. The Vols have only managed an 8-17 record against the spread in this situation. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.18 points. The MM projects a point differential of -6.83 points against the current line range of +7.0 to +9.0 points. The SIM Matrix has the Vanderbilt Commodores with a 73.9 percent advantage against the spread in tonight’s game. We note the Commodores are 9-3 against the number when installed as a home underdog and playing with revenge. Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason has done a great job preparing his troops and having them ready to play when they have been installed as a six or more point underdog posting a record of 13-5 against the spread including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Our Momentum Factor module has this 5-win Commodores team trending in positive territory while the Volunteers have dipped into the red with a negative overall average for this contest. The Commodores have five wins on the season and they know they need a sixth win to qualify for a bowl invitation that is certainly a motivating factor for this team on this day as they take on their hated rival. With the combination of all these factors pointing to only one outcome we will take the points on Saturday night in Nashville. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5.5* Vanderbilt Commodores 21 Tennessee Volunteers 22
PICK MADE ON 11/26/2016 AT 12:35 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/26/2016 AT 11:38 PM EST
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11/26/2016

10:15 PM EST
NCAAF
UTAH STATE VS. BYU

PICK: BYU -16.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Brigham Young Cougars come into tonight’s contest well rested from playing to teams that did not challenge them in any way which is bad news for the Aggies who have tossed the towel on the season. In fact it has been more than a month since this Utah State team even won a game and their defense is where it begins to fall apart. The Aggies offense cannot seem to stay on the field for any length of time which hurts an already depleted defense that is looking to play out the schedule and go home for the holidays. The Aggies have failed to cover their last six times to post overall and they have dropped their last eight games away from home with a lone ATS win over that span. Those numbers do not lend themselves to any type of confidence. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 25.8 points. The MM projects a point differential of 9.95 points against the current line range of -16.5 to -18.5 points. The SIM Matrix has the BYU Cougars with a 74.4 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. The Cougars have a huge edge on both sides of the ball with the Aggies not showing any of that fire that once made them a tough out for teams like BYU. That has all diminished and the lights are going out on their season with a bang on Saturday night as BYU rolls over an overmatched Utah State team that has tossed the towel on the 2016 campaign. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* BYU Cougars 45 Utah State Aggies 20
PICK MADE ON 11/26/2016 AT 12:36 PM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/27/2016 AT 2:20 AM EST
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PICKS FOR FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2016 [refresh]
11/25/2016

2:30 PM EST
NCAAF
ARKANSAS VS. MISSOURI

PICK: ARKANSAS -7.5 (-110)

RISK: 5 UNITS
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CHAT / COMMENTS
PICK WRITE-UP: The Missouri Tigers have what many consider the worst defense in the SEC this season and after a quick glance we side with those pundits after watching them give up 63 points to Rocky Top last week. The Tigers defense has allowed at least thirty-one points in all but one of their seven games to this point in the season. The one team that could not put at least thirty-one on the Tigers was the struggling offense of the Vanderbilt Commodores. Missouri enters this game ranked 117th in total yards allowed, 77th versus opponents aerial attack, 118th overland and 95th in points allowed giving up 32.2 points per game. The news gets worse when playing in the conference because the Tigers defense allows SEC teams more points than their season average with 36.8 points per game facing SEC foes. They now face a Hogs offense that racked up 663 yards of total offense including 359 yards rushing last week on the road versus Mississippi State. Razorbacks RB Rawleigh Williams III has been key to the Hogs ground game with 1209 yards rushing this season including 205 yards, on just 16 carries last week versus the Bulldogs. He averaged 12.8 yards per carry in that victory 58 to 42 road victory over the Bulldogs. The Hogs offensive line has finally put the pieces together and this will be a long day for that Missouri defense. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 14.42 points. The MM projects a point differential of 8.79 points against the current line range of -7.0 to -9.0. The SIM Matrix has the Arkansas Razorbacks with a 73.6 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in this contest. The Momentum Factor Module has the Missouri Tiger solidly in negative territory with a -4.55 MFM average. The Razorbacks on the other hand have a +7.23 MFM average on the season and they are trending in positive territory across the board. We note Missouri has posted a 1-6 ATS record their last seven times to post losing to the spread by double-digits with an average of -10.93 points. They are also just 3-11 ATS when installed as an underdog. Tigers are 2-7 ATS their last nine versus this Hogs team and 10-3 ATS as a visitor. Arkansas is 23-9 ATS during the month of November. With solid support for the Razorbacks from all primary and secondary indexes plus the Tigers qualifying as a Towel Tossing Team we will lay the chalk here with the Hogs. PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Arkansas Razorbacks 47 Missouri Tigers 29
PICK MADE ON 11/25/2016 AT 11:38 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 11/25/2016 AT 6:18 PM EST
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