Thursday Night NFL Preview
Thu, Oct 8, 2020
Tampa travels to Chicago to take on the Bears. The Buccaneers are 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, going over 3-1. The Bears are also 3-1 SU, but 2-2 ATS, splitting totals at 2-2.
Odds: Tampa is -3.5 with a total of 44.5 at NFL live lines. It opened at -3 and 45.5. Home underdogs with a winning percentage of .750 or better are 76-59-3 including 61-42-3 getting 2.5 or more, 39-22-3 with three or fewer wins.
Public betting percentages: Substantial splits are on the side as 78 percent of bets on are on Tampa, but 78 percent of money on the Bears. Many say this implies sharp money on the home underdogs and it is rare the share is this divergent. The total is almost as compelling with 65 percent of bets on over, yet 66 percent of cash on under.
Power ratings: Our power ratings have Tampa -.5 with a total of 47.5 and a projected 24-23 victory by the road team.
Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Tampa projected to win 23-21. The Bears covered 54 percent of simulations with the under at 53 percent. Another has the power ratings of Tampa -4 with a total of 47. Tampa covered 51.9 percent of simulations with it going over 56.5 percent of the time.
Against the spread trends: Tampa 4-0 road favorites, 19-40 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Chicago 1-8 loss and 4-12 overall.
Over-under trends: Tampa over 8-0 after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, over 8-0 off spread loss. Chicago under 16-5 grass.
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Mike Evans is questionable for the Buccaneers. He already has 17 catches for 230 yards and 5 TDs. It looks like he will warm up before any final decision is made. Scotty Miller is likely to play for Tampa. He has 15 catches. Chris Godwin is out. Off a spectacular season, he has 11 catches this year. Nick Foles remains the starting QB for Chicago.