I Hate Favorites

Thu, Sep 16, 2021
by SeanSpeaks.cappertek.com

If you look at my page seanspeaks.cappertek.com you will notice something very strange. I rarely bet on favorites. And there is a reason for this. 

Are you ready?

The public bets heavily on favorites and it is reflected in the odds. Let's take baseball for example. The worst team in baseball this year is winning about 31% of their games. What that means in terms of odds is -222 is fair on every opponent and +222 is fair betting the horrible team.

This is very simplistic but believe it or not, you would make money taking Balltimore (the horrible team) any time you were give higher than +222 AND you would make money betting against them anytime the favorite was better than -222.

My method goes much more in depth to give me a sharper line to work with but it really doesn't matter. The point is you are looking for the edge.

The reason I bet on so many dogs goes back to my earlier statement. The public overbets favorites. This causes the underdog to be getting much better odds than they should.

If you have questions or would like to discuss this with me, look me up.

TomBartonSports.com