The Numbers Don't Lie
Sun, Sep 19, 2021
The reason I am always profitable is simple, I only wager when the percentages are in my favor. Granted I have my own way of figuring the %'s but the point is you must follow the numbers.
Casinos never lose money because they have the numbers in their favor. In fact, the edge is very small in some cases yet they win billions of dollars with such tiny edges.
Sports betting is much different. In many cases I get truley amazing edges with the way odds are put out. If my odds say a team should win the game 45% of the time based on my model the odds shoild be +122. If the sports book is giving me anything higher, I have the odds in my favor. It's that simple.
It is not unusual to get an unbelievabe edge. Imagine seeing the above example hits the board at +175 or maybe +225. Now that's an edge!
You will notice I only bet the moneyline. Bookmakers love the point spread because they just need to get even money on both sides and the get the juice. Handicappers are busting their ball trying to win 55% or more of their picks to stay relevent. The bookies DO NOT want you playing the moneyline in neither football, basketball or hockey. They have even tried to introduce the runline in baseball to drive people off the moneyline.
My edge is simplle. I have developed a way of coming with a way of figuring out the actual chance a team has of winning. If the odds at the book are giveing me an edge. I make the play. I always make the play. I am noth selective. It's not unusual to see me wagering on 5 or more games each day. Just look at my betting history that is verified here on Cappertek.