Updated for the 2018 season:
This is a general explanation of my exclusive Calculated Relative Spread (CRS) formula as it pertains to rating NFL match ups. Quite simply it's the use of several key statistics which, when input into the formula, results in a numeric value for a teams relative strength entering the contest. The difference between the two values is the Calculated Relative Spread.
As my formula is proprietary, I can't give specifics, but I'll gladly share this general explanation to give followers a pretty good idea of what I use to calculate this spread.
I would like to point out that the Vegas bookmakers use formulas much like my CRS to calculate their spreads, however, they must then factor in public sentiment relative to attracting equal action on both sides. Then, once betting opens on a game, the spread is dictated by the actual money wagered.
What my CRS provides is that raw, or true point spread that isn't distorted by the betting public. Having this knowledge is a definite advantage.
There are six figures that get plugged into the CRS formula and they are taken from the following 4 categories:
- Starting QB
- Yards per play
- Home field
The result is a total rating for each team relative to the matchup.
To show how it works, I'll walk through this season's opening game, Atlanta at Philadelphia.
First, Atlanta's total rating for this matchup is 14.425. Philadelphia's rating is 22.35.
Since Philadelphia's number is greater, they are deemed the favorite and my CRS spread is PHI -7.925, the ratings differential.
Next, I compare my CRS spread with the Vegas line of PHI -2.5.
Obviously, the Eagles would be the recommended bet here since the CRS has them favored by more points than you'll have to actually lay.
The final step is to figure out how much to bet. I give out recommendations on a 1-3 unit scale. The CRS / Vegas differential here is 5.425. For my CRS, I will generally use the following table for my unit recommendation:
1 - 6 unit differential 1 unit
7 - 12 unit differential 2 units
13 plus differential 3 units
I say that I will generally use the above table because I do give myself some discretion to account for intangibles that can't necessarily be calculated in a formula. For example, injuries, weather, etc. But this will be my starting point.
I hope you'll find my CRS spreads useful throughout the upcoming NFL season and that it will be helpful in the quest of increasing your bankroll.
Good luck, players!