NBA - Formulated Spread Indicator
Sat, Oct 24, 2015
The following is a detailed explanation of our Formulated Spread Indicator (FSI) which we use to predict outcomes of NBA games.
The FSI formula takes into consideration 5 factors and results in a spread that we will then compare to the actual Vegas spread to come up with our pick as well as the number of units to wager.
Below, we will explain the 5 factors and the values given to each factor.
Recent Performance: Here, we will look at the teams last 3 games and award +1 for each victory and -1 for each loss.
Example: The Bulls come into a game having won 2 of their last 3 games. They would receive a value of +1 for this category.
eFG% - own: This category looks at a teams Effective Field Goal Percentage which adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. eFG% can be found at Basketball-Reference.com. A value of between +3 and -3 will be given based on the teams NBA ranking in this category. The following shows the rank (value) 1-4 (+3) 5-8 (+2) 9-12 (+1) 10-18 (0) 19-22 (-1) 23-26 (-2) 27-30 (-3)
Example: The Clippers are ranked 2nd in the NBA with a .533 eFG%. They would receive a value of +3 for this category.
eFG% - opponent: The same idea as a teams own eFG%, except we look at their opponents eFG% against them. The same rank and values are used.
Example: The Celtics are ranked 15th in the NBA as they are allowing their opponents an eFG% of .494. They would receive a value of 0 for this category.
MOV: This is a teams average margin of victory. The value given will be equal to the margin, rounded to the nearest whole number. Plus or minus depending on the average MOV. NBA rank does not factor in to this category.
Example: The Nuggets have an average MOV of -3.55. They would receive a value of -4 for this category.
Home Court: The general rule of thumb is a 3-point home court advantage in the NBA and that is what we will go with here.
Totals: Simply the sum total of all 5 categories for each team.
Formulated Spread: This is the difference of the totals of the 2 teams. The team with the higher total will be deemed the favorite and the number will be preceded by a - sign and the team with the lower total will show a + sign prior to the number.
Example: In a matchup between the Cavaliers and the Rockets, the Cavs' total is +3, while the Rocket's total is -2. The difference between these totals is 5. Since the Cavs have the higher total, +3, they are the "favorite" with a -5 Formulated Spread. The Rockets are the "underdogs" with a +5 Indicator.
Pick (units): Here, we will now compare our Formulated Spread to the Vegas Spread. Our Pick will be the team whose FSI is favorable to the Vegas Spread. The (units) indicate the number of units, from .5 to 11, that we recommend betting. We determine the units simply by using the difference in the FSI and the Vegas Spread. We cap our units at 11 because we use CapperTek.com as a verification site and they allow up to 11 units.
Example: The Blazers are a 5.5 point Vegas favorite over the Knicks. Our FSI calculates Portland as a 9 point favorite. We will pick Portland (3.5 units) as the FSI sees them as an even bigger favorite than Vegas and the difference is 3.5 points.
We will use this formula for just about every NBA game. You can simply follow the FSI and bet accordingly, or use it as a resource to supplement your current system. Either way, you should see positive results and feel that you have an edge over the betting public when betting an NBA game against the spread.